It’s hard to pretend this isn’t at least gambling-adjacent when most people are simply betting on outcomes.
It's gambling sure and gambling should generally be legal. People are bizarrely puritanical about this.
Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
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Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#172They've been banned for generations. It's called gambling. Of course, we all have to sit through another round of Silicon Valley pretending they've discovered some new exciting business model that's just vice. Unlicensed gypsy cabs, SROs, shift work, patent medicines, narcotics dealing, customs fraud, and smuggling already had established market entrants I guess.
Gambling works and is normal in most of the world. No idea why the USA is puritanical about this. It's like the oldest business on the planet.
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#173I wonder if it can really be enforced. It's clear that prediction markets are a scourge -- there seems to be no upside whatsoever.
Prediction markets ensure that there is always produce in your store.
Commodities futures markets on which what are traded are contracts for future delivery of goods do that.
Prediction markets—forums for gambling on the outcome of a platform-provided referee as to how a proposition about the future will be resolved—do not do that at all.
Now, the legal definition of commodities markets for regulatory purposes in some jurisdictions may be broad enough that prediction markets are legally a subtype of commodities market despite doing a very different thing than traditional commodities markets, but that’s an artifact of a legal definition being drawn in a very broad way at a time when it didn’t matter because nothing like prediction markets existed.
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#174For the record, Minnesota currently has a complete ban on sports betting. We've seen a couple other states that allow sports betting go after prediction markets. Personally, I feel that any state that allows sports betting is going to struggle to argue a case to ban prediction markets because you're essentially arguing over implementation details. Even arguments that certain prediction markets are ripe for insider tr…
> Personally, I feel that any state that allows sports betting is going to struggle to argue a case to ban prediction markets because you're essentially arguing over implementation details.
This seems to be based on the false assumption that state legislation on distinct but related topics must generally be based on a coherent, consistent rationale. This is, very much, not the case under any law that binds US states, nor is it a rule that, despite not existing in binding law, is in practice imposed as a constraint on state governments by the actions of the voters.
(Conversely, even if such a rule was imposed, in law or otherwise, any state that has rules regulating the offering of insurance contracts, including who could buy insurance against what events—which, as it turns out, every state does—would have exactly the basis they need to apply the same kinds of rules to prediction markets.)
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#175Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think sports betting is a lot less harmful than prediction markets. With sports betting if someone throws a game to get a pay day, for instance, the only real consequence is on the reputation of the sport. In prediction markets, people can do all sorts of awful things to make money as insiders..
There's a pretty decent counter-argument though: Prediction markets are just a market for users to counterparty each-other. Which means, technically, for every trade there is a winner and a loser, and both the winner and the loser are generally just normal people (or market makers). Polymarket/Kalshi just take X% on the top as a fee. Versus, with sports betting, the counterparty is the casino. Its the difference of t…
The counterparty in prediction markets are whales though, and those are the few players making money off it. The ROI is also less negative in casinos and sports betting than prediction markets.
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#176> The prohibition extends to services supporting prediction markets, like virtual private networks, that could allow consumers to disguise their location and get around the ban.
Yikes. I am all for banning prediction markets but I feel like this is overreaching.
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#177Isn't the stock market a prediction market as well?
The stock market by itself has similar outcomes to the prediction markets (you buy X hoping it'll go up so you can earn $Y), but there's actual value being purchased. If I buy an apple stock, I own 0.001% or whatever of the company. If the company goes up to $10T in value, my little share is a percentage of that. I can sell it and be happy.
If the company goes to $0 then I own a portion of nothing, and so does everyone else who owns a share.
With prediction markets you don't own anything, and regardless of the outcome, someone can still win if they "bet right"
That said, futures and derivatives seem similar to prediction markets but I don't know enough about them to say more.
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#178Earlier quoted context omitted.
First, over 90% of the wagers on Polymarket and Kalshi are already on sports (quoting John Oliver's Last Week Tonight on that one). Despite the headlines, Kalshi and Polymarket are mainly just sportsbooks. Second, while yes, some of the markets available on prediction markets can push people to do awful things, there are plenty that are harmless. I'm cherry picking to make an extreme point, but I would so much rather…
>Kalshi and Polymarket are mainly just sportsbooks. How? They sell contracts between two users. One side each. Completely different from a sportsbook where users are betting that the lines they set are not correct.
Whether the people betting on the sports are betting directly with each other or not is a very small difference.
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#179Earlier quoted context omitted.
No. They're not banning prediction markets from out-of-state, they're banning it entirely. A state cannot ban out-of-state alcohol, but it can ban alcohol outright if it wanted to.
Yeah but there's a difference there. I can buy alcohol out of state and if I bring it back in, that's on me. Does anyone think that Minnesotans who are out of MN at the time of their bet will be allowed to bet? I don't think they'll be allowed, but they should be.
I assume most people need to put on an address or credit card info linking them to their home state. They likely wouldn't be allowed to have an account.