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Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

writing.antonleicht.me

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Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#171

Post by davrosthedalek »

pjc50 wrote: post #82
evdubs wrote: post #6

What's the likelihood that universities eventually become open model providers?

Universities are struggling to prevent their students using AI, because it makes both learning and evaluation extremely difficult.

This. It's extremely frustrating, AI can be a 24/7 tutor, but too many students use it to do their work instead.

We have to really rethink how and what we teach, and how we evaluate. Scoring (non-handwritten) homework is pointless, even contra-productive (because it incentivizes cheating, even for the students who don't want to, just to not be outscored by the cheaters). Hand-written homework means the students at least have to have read the work once...

And soon, with AI glasses, even in-classroom tests will be difficult.

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#172

Post by kouteiheika »

phantomathkg wrote: post #49

Instead of soon, how about just "now"? I would imagine not single everyone on HN have enough disposable income that allow us to subscribe Claude Max or other similar max plan of other models without thinking. Some people mentioned open weight model, but there are two hurdles. One the current economic mean securing the best hardware is already stupidly expensive compare to a year or two ago. And the open weight model…

> I would imagine not single everyone on HN have enough disposable income that allow us to subscribe Claude Max or other similar max plan of other models without thinking.

You don't need the Max plan with other models if you're not going completely crazy. Other providers have much more generous limits than Anthropic.

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#173

Post by zozbot234 »

pu_pe wrote: post #170
zozbot234 wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nothing released so far inherently "needs" a datacenter, it's just a matter of how much performance you require. Slow, high-latency inference will be a natural way to run "datacenter" models locally.

Yes it does. You will not be able to run models like DeepSeek v4 (>1.5 trillion parameters) on a regular workstation any time soon, unless by "slow" you mean "unusable". And those are the models that are ~6 months behind Opus 4.7.

What qualifies as "unusable" when I can just run a batch of inferences unattended/overnight and wake up to fresh results the next day? That's a kind of slow workflow that could even be adapted to uses like coding, given enough effort. Besides, you're kinda overstating how heavy DeepSeek V4 Pro really is, the 1.6T are total parameters. They're not all active simultaneously.

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#174

Post by aurareturn »

repelsteeltje wrote: post #166
aurareturn wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing that is potentially different this time is that Moore's Law has stopped scaling. Computers aren't getting smaller exponentially. They're getting bigger with multiple chips glued together to make up for Moore's Law.

...But there's a new world dawning for photonic chips. No reason to expect Moore's observation to apply there (though, maybe?), but it will have big implications for power usage.

Photonic chips allow computers to get bigger, not smaller.

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#175

Post by mold_aid »

Animats wrote: post #66

Over on the image generation side, "frontier AI" seems to be coming along rather well. Watch this video, which was released eight days ago.[1] Can you find any flaws? Two years ago, just getting hands with the right number of fingers was tough. Last year, there were jarring errors in every scene. Now, very little is wrong. How much longer will anyone need Hollywood studios? [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zTCLIh…

>How much longer will anyone need Hollywood studios?

As long as they need shots longer than a few seconds, I suppose

>Now, very little is wrong.

You think culture is a matter of whether you've genned bass drums in front of or behind the drummer? (or to be a little more critical, whether you've remembered to add "sprinkle in some racial diversity" after the first prompt). You got the Coca-Cola trademark just popping up throughout, though, good job there

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#176

Post by resters »

I think we'll know this is true when deepseek becomes illegal in the US.

I tried to sign up for deepseek API access directly from the company out of gratitude for the open source contribution (deepseek.com) but payments are blocked by US government rules.

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#177

Post by datsci_est_2015 »

pjerem wrote: post #97
rTX5CMRXIfFG wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Affordability of hardware that can run local LLMs is a real factor, too. Not sure when RAM prices are going down, but with everything that’s happening and can happen in the world right now, it doesn’t look like it’ll drop in the near or medium-term

Open weight models does not means you can run them on your laptop (except for the small ones). It means that someone independent (a cloud provider, another company ...) can build big computers that are capable ton run those models and provide you a metered usage. At the end of the day, as a consumer, you still pay per token (or per something) to your provider, except you can chose from multiple providers with your ow…

In other words commodification, and no moat.

Which would also be an ideal outcome for people interested in avoiding a concentration of power and wealth due to access to generative AI.

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#178

Post by noisy_boy »

DCKing wrote: post #102
gpt5 wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because Deepseek 4.0 is not yet there, but the jump isn't expected to be large. Kimi 2.5 is there and is also scoring low.

Deepseek V4 came out three weeks ago: https://huggingface.co/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-V4-Pro Kimi K2.5 has also been superseded by a finer tuned Kimi K2.6 three weeks ago. Moonshot's Kimi models appear to be the favored Chinese model, at least for coding, and not Deepseek V4. z.AI's GLM 5.1 is also worth mentioning as rather competent for coding, also released in April. Those models too will not be beating US AI labs by…

I have been using Deepseek v4 pro for personal projects and home infra related work for last couple of weeks. It's quality of work is not bad at all, it is fairly fast and given the fraction of the cost compared to Claude, I can keep going which makes it a very compelling option. Looking forward to trying out Kimi 2.6, thanks for the recommendation.

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#179

Post by KronisLV »

DCKing wrote: post #102
gpt5 wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because Deepseek 4.0 is not yet there, but the jump isn't expected to be large. Kimi 2.5 is there and is also scoring low.

Deepseek V4 came out three weeks ago: https://huggingface.co/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-V4-Pro Kimi K2.5 has also been superseded by a finer tuned Kimi K2.6 three weeks ago. Moonshot's Kimi models appear to be the favored Chinese model, at least for coding, and not Deepseek V4. z.AI's GLM 5.1 is also worth mentioning as rather competent for coding, also released in April. Those models too will not be beating US AI labs by…

Also they have a pretty big token discount running this month: https://api-docs.deepseek.com/quick_start/pricing/

Even without the discount, I'll have to think about whether I need the 100 EUR tier of Anthropic Max, or whether downgrading to Pro and using DeepSeek is good enough. And they're also up on OpenRouter and other places.

Been using those models, not quite comparable with Opus 4.6/4.7 but with max reasoning, pretty good for a variety of dev tasks! Only big problem is no ability to process images, so can't really do browser use for some semi-automated testing, I'd have to write Playwright tests even when I don't want to.

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#180

Post by mold_aid »

pjc50 wrote: post #82
evdubs wrote: post #6

What's the likelihood that universities eventually become open model providers?

Universities are struggling to prevent their students using AI, because it makes both learning and evaluation extremely difficult.

Universities provide the AI to students. We have CoPilot in our 365 and the Ed majors get free AI crap all the time. Hard to make drugs illegal when you're the dealer
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