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The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

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Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#171

Post by js8 »

Avicebron wrote: post #100
adjejmxbdjdn wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whatever you think about elite politicians and the super-rich, they’re not the “deep state”. The whole idea of the deep state is that it’s part of the state, ie government, so not private citizens, and they’re “deep” ie hidden below the layers of government. Thats the exact opposite of politicians and the ultra rich.

Lol I'm pretty sure the "deep state" just means, "manipulating the levers of power from a place without accountablity/oversight" which covers both these shadowy hidden layers of govt you describe and the shadowy wealthy elites funding and lobbying for whatever. It can be both.

I agree with parent, that's not how right-wing propaganda portrays the deep state. It's a strawman, of unaccountable government bureacrats. It excludes billionaires and dark money in politics (the real problem), they put themselves on the good side. (Remember DOGE?)

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#172

Post by bigyabai »

RobotToaster wrote: post #161
kelseyfrog wrote: post #102

Commercialization is not enough. The US is built on financialization . Cultivating an ecosysyem of strong capital protections, wealth creation through extraction, and tax advantages for AI finance is what we should be looking for. Commercialzation may be a step towards that, but isn't the destination. We have to create a system where those with money can multiply it, not simple add to it.

Betting your entire country's future on usury seems like a terrible idea to me, but what do I know.

Don't look now, but if you've got a 401k then your pension is already dependent on perverse financialization.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#173

Post by bluGill »

cjbgkagh wrote: post #120
bluGill wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There isn't a war today. However China wants Taiwan: war is future option they preparing for - they might or might not go to war but they are clearly preparing. The US is likely to get involved in such a war and I would expect Europe to join in as well. Don't ask me what Trump is doing though.

Don’t take China on face value, they have every incentive to promote a grifting military industrial complex in the US while focusing on competing in manufacturing. An actual war would fix a lot of the grifting in the US as it would align interests. Pretending they’ll go to war over Taiwan and not doing it is an effective strategy for undermining the US.

I hope you are right, but unfortunately there is no particular reason to trust China's leadership anymore. They are not nearly as obvious at Trump, but they are not on a good path.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#174

Post by bigyabai »

treis wrote: post #87
usui wrote: post #33

> where it matters most: commercialization. It begs the question because both its premise and assertion are already wrong. Has AI improved the industrial capacity of the US in order to improve the lives of its citizens? No it hasn't. Has AI increased the wealth of its citizens by being able to do laundry or any household task in a generalized way? No it hasn't. The only thing it's really done is make very narrow slic…

AI has definitely improved the industrial capacity of the US

Computer vision certainly did. But LLMs? That needs citation.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#175

Post by euroderf »

Havoc wrote: post #169

Inclined to disagree. The winner here will be whoever can move atoms with AI not take notes at the daily standup. i.e. Think boston dynamics vs unitree They're both doing well but I'd lean towards China is winning on atoms in light of a huge manufacturing base they can AI-ify.

K. Eric Drexler's "Engines of Creation" got a lot of favorable comment when it was published but then it kind of faded from view. Might be worthwhile to revisit it?

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#176

Post by vasco »

usui wrote: post #33

> where it matters most: commercialization. It begs the question because both its premise and assertion are already wrong. Has AI improved the industrial capacity of the US in order to improve the lives of its citizens? No it hasn't. Has AI increased the wealth of its citizens by being able to do laundry or any household task in a generalized way? No it hasn't. The only thing it's really done is make very narrow slic…

You better have some sources for declaring that industrial capacity hasn't increased. The Fed reports around 8% penetration of AI in manufacturing already, but in my opinion it's too early for grand declarations like that without data.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/moni...

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#177

Post by pwndByDeath »

ribosometronome wrote: post #146
nradov wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All that compute is not needed. We have an existence proof from biology in the form of natural intelligence that much greater efficiency is possible. However, achieving dramatic improvements in compute efficiency will depend on unpredictable scientific breakthroughs. Personally I suspect that an entirely new hardware architecture will be needed, although I don't have any hard evidence to back that up.

>from biology ... much greater efficiency is possible Those are much more specialized models with pretty mediocre tokens per second.

Perhaps tokens is a dead end?

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#178

Post by sokka_h2otribe »

SubiculumCode wrote: post #103
lorecore wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who happens to have been born in the US and currently lives here, I welcome China winning. I trust them infinitely more than I trust my own government and industry. OpenAI and Anthropic are beholden to the capitalist system they exist under and hence cannot compete on local models. Like you say, they must try to maximize shareholder value. China is unencumbered by that constraint.

You are free to hate capitalism (even if you benefit from it enormously). You are free to say that you hate capitalism and the U.S. as openly and as often as you like, without facing imprisonment or worse. But if you were in China, could you say you hate the Chinese Communist Party and China openly and as often as you like without imprisonment or worse? We know the answer to that. So go ahead and trust China more tha…

I think you're missing their point, even if I can agree with part of your premise.

There was an outdated but relevant saying

'In America, you can criticize president Nixon anytime'

'Yes, but in Soviet Union you can also criticize Nixon anytime.'

The point is not that they're safer but that they're not a relevant concern in the same way. (According to OP)

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#179

Post by ElevenLathe »

ToucanLoucan wrote: post #151
Our_Benefactors wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is, frontier model providers don’t take your feelings into account even a little bit. It’s totally irrelevant to the discussion about the service they can provide, because that service is predicated on access to high power GPU slices that local models can’t touch. Those providers won’t be in an existential crisis because some people choose the privacy route, it’s a cost of doing business.

Right but that service being sold is predicated on products being sold to users, yes? Or are we still pretending that the hyperscalers can just pass the same $20 billion between themselves and that's going to be a growth industry forever?

I suppose its possible that all the value to pay back the datacenter construction can be squeezed out of enterprise contracts where your employer can assent on the privacy questions, probably with some kind of complicated contract and insurance regime regulating things.

Even if so, if China is coming behind 6 months later selling laptops with hyper-efficient local models that are 80% as good as "frontier" ones, I imagine they'll get the consumer business AND a fair share of the enterprise business as IT managers look at their options during the next refresh cycle.

Given economies of scale, I think it's ultimately inevitable that the enterprise more-or-less follows the consumer on this, and the consumer is going to prefer local models. There's no ongoing cost after the initial purchase, and your data at least nominally stays within your control.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#180

Post by puelocesar »

Igrom wrote: post #27

Flagged for AI content: I hope this submission dies and the user is penalized (look at their submission and comment history!), because IMO the article does not belong on the front page. Quick polemic: >The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization If you ask me, one could name different criteria for winning, and commercialization would not be the first thing to come to my mind: https://englis…

Can I block a user to avoid seeing his posts? I noticed front page would be much nicer without guys like OP
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