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ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

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Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#171

Post by vrganj »

quanto wrote: post #133

I have an interesting discussion with a senior colleague: why ASML? why are they by far the best? Their competitors are a few generations behind. The colleague claimed that there is no special magic. It's not that ASML is using some otherwise unknown laws of physics nor is any single step or component particularly special or novel. It's just that they meticulously optimized each step, and the sum of such steps is the…

The Economist had a good article on this a few years ago: https://www.economist.com/business/2024/01/08/does-europe-at... https://archive.ph/jP1HX

Basically, ASML has an incredible pan-European supply chain of the sort of stuff Europe does best. Deep tech, advanced precision manufacturing, that sort of thing.

I know it's popular to poo-poo Europe around these parts, but those are the sort of thing we genuinely are the best in the world at. Technology isn't just shiny apps and LLMs. It's also this sort of thing, and the shiny LLMs wouldn't work without it.

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#172

Post by SR2Z »

GuB-42 wrote: post #150
ChrisMarshallNY wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've heard that US nuclear subs actually take the crown, but the design is so secret, that there's no way to verify.

I doubt that anything in the military is that advanced or complex, including nuclear subs. A big part of it is the secrecy itself. Things get difficult when you can't communicate. Your pool of candidates for the job is limited: you may not want people with foreign connections, some people don't want to work for the military, don't like the paperwork, don't like the idea that they can't value their skills for another…

> But for things that are relevant to civilians, like the reactors, engines, etc.., I am sure that what's in subs is relatively simple, and probably dated.

It seems like submarine propeller designs are all classified past 1960, even though quiet and efficient propellers pretty relevant to civilian ship design:

https://n5dux.com/taming/

The thing about military stuff is that generally the budget is large and the goal is to design something better than what the enemy has. The civilian world for a long time wasn't willing to blow hundreds of thousands of dollars on ASICs to control phased-array radars; the military was. Now as a result of lots of military investment, the technology is so well-understood that Google put a phased array on a chip inside the front of the Pixel 5.

> In addition, military technology is supposed to work on the battlefield, you don't want delicate stuff there, you want rugged, repairable, proven, reliable.

What you want is stuff that wins fights, and it only needs to be repairable and reliable insofar as it wins fights. The US has the F-22, which is an ultra expensive jet that only has ~60% uptime. In war games, it achieves kill ratios of 100:1, so the military is more than happy to keep it around. When the US raided Osama bin Laden's compound they sent brand new stealth helicopters even though they knew the platform was less reliable.

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#173

Post by fhn »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #155
bobbruno wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One could argue that NVidia's advantage comes from a similar vision epiphany that led to them developing CUDA years before it was viable. The result is similar.

I'm tempted to call that pure luck. As far as they knew, crypto would be the killer app. However, if you start with the assumption that at some point, people are going to need a lot of fast parallel compute for something , you could rationally justify their long-term strategy. They skated where the proverbial puck was going. They couldn't see the puck, but they were pretty sure there was one. In hindsight that really…

CUDA came out of the need for running parallel cores in their GPUs. This is not luck, it's product evolution. They did it first, they did it best, and they are reaping the benefits. The alternative here is to Not have CUDA and continue writing sub-optimal code for GPUs.

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#174

Post by mitthrowaway2 »

lijok wrote: post #108

ASML are not the chokepoint for chips. Zeiss are. ASML can hire more engineers and build more machines. Zeiss cannot hire more mirror grinders. And noone wants to train as one.

What is preventing Zeiss from paying higher salaries to mirror grinders, so that young people consider that career over alternatives?

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#175

Post by phkahler »

CGMthrowaway wrote: post #160
RobotToaster wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't that commonly called anti-competitive practices?

It would fall under the category of exclusive dealing.(1) Exclusive dealing is never per se illegal, but it can be as a matter of judgment before a court. ASML would argue that it's legitimately justified because a) there is mutual coinvestment (ASML owns 25% of Zeiss semi optics division) and thus there is symbiosis / shared risk not a simple exclusionary supply contract b) no viable alternative customers exist for…

  b) no viable alternative customers exist for Zeiss so it doesn't matter

  c) EUV litho is so tightly coupled to optics that having a single supplier is a technical necessity
B can also be an argument against putting exclusivity into a contract.

C is just a business decision - exclusivity due to need, not contract.

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#176

Post by theptip »

rgalate wrote: post #151
quanto wrote: post #133

I have an interesting discussion with a senior colleague: why ASML? why are they by far the best? Their competitors are a few generations behind. The colleague claimed that there is no special magic. It's not that ASML is using some otherwise unknown laws of physics nor is any single step or component particularly special or novel. It's just that they meticulously optimized each step, and the sum of such steps is the…

The best explanation as to why ASML is so dominant is that they have locked out the best suppliers by signing exclusivity deals with them. If you want to compete with ASML you have to vertically build: the best lenses, the best lasers, the best metrology. A new entrant would need to replace ten different world-class vendors simultaneously. Unlike common business wisdom that dictates having multiple suppliers to mitig…

It does seem like the USG should fund a few $10B to build out the alternative stack, given the strategic sensitivity. Best time to have started would have been 20y ago, second best is today.

This is small change in the military budget.

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#179

Post by phist_mcgee »

kryogen1c wrote: post #147
pfortuny wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An aircraft carrier would like a word.

>> nuclear sub >aircraft carrier Having served on both, this is actually a pretty interesting comparison (at least to me). Carriers are simply larger, so they likely win by scale, but im not sure on a more per-(sub)system basis. Carriers have a lot of aircraft handling systems that subs dont, elevators and hangers. Also the carrier has group c&c stuff. Subs have a lot of stealth systems carriers don't, being that the…

Which did you enjoy serving on more? Submariners apparently eat better than anywhere else on the navy, but also don't get any sunlight for 6 months?

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#180

Post by ijidak »

quanto wrote: post #133

I have an interesting discussion with a senior colleague: why ASML? why are they by far the best? Their competitors are a few generations behind. The colleague claimed that there is no special magic. It's not that ASML is using some otherwise unknown laws of physics nor is any single step or component particularly special or novel. It's just that they meticulously optimized each step, and the sum of such steps is the…

Is the quant competitor Renaissance? The Medallion Fund?
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