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What killed the Florida orange?

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Re: What killed the Florida orange?

#171

Post by Auracle »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #144
tgarrett wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what you are saying is that, yes there has not been an overall increase in hurricanes hitting the US over the last 175 years, but climate change has been specifically and precisely steering the hurricanes towards the orange growing regions of Florida in recent years, and is therefore to blame for the crop failures. You have to diagnose a problem correctly in order to have a chance at solving it.

Well now I'm thoroughly confused. Because your data does seem to overturn the conventional wisdom. Do actual climate scientists claim we're getting more, and stronger, hurricanes now than we did before?

By the way, I know I saw someone point out the same data at least 5 years ago - probably more like 10.

At some point the discourse changed from “just because it’s a cold winter doesn’t mean that global warming isn’t happening” to “every hurricane/wildfire is due to climate change” and it’s ridiculous.

I honestly think a lot of young people don’t realize that while climate change is probably real our weather and variability hasn’t changed that much - yet, at least.

Re: What killed the Florida orange?

#172

Post by tgarrett »

fnordpiglet wrote: post #170
tgarrett wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what you are saying is that, yes there has not been an overall increase in hurricanes hitting the US over the last 175 years, but climate change has been specifically and precisely steering the hurricanes towards the orange growing regions of Florida in recent years, and is therefore to blame for the crop failures. You have to diagnose a problem correctly in order to have a chance at solving it.

I’m asserting nothing other than the article asserted the pattern of hurricanes changed to target the orange growing region more often and that you’re using gross geographic data to discuss an orthogonal point. However you make it seem like the assertion is nature intentionally targeting orange groves rather than shifts in patterns implies patterns shifted from where they were to where they were not hitting - this is…

I did provide the data in my first comment, here it is again:

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.htm...

The analysis is easy: copy and paste the data from that link into a new text file, then write a python script that goes through it and counts the number of Cat 1, 2, 3, 4 & 5 hurricanes that make landfall per year (the "Highest Saffir-Simpson U.S. Category" column), and then make the plots: I used gnuplot. You can then do fits to the data if you'd like, but the flat trend lines over the last 175 years are obvious.

I encourage you to not trust me and to do it yourself, but I'm also happy to share my script, let me know.

As far as the hurricane trajectory trend lines go, they are clearly highly stochastic: check out e.g. both the spaghetti plot predictions for various storms from previous years, and ask google for a map of where they grow (grew...) oranges in Florida.

Re: What killed the Florida orange?

#173

Post by wolfie69 »

HugoTea wrote: post #21
pjc50 wrote: post #15

This reminds me of the collapse of the Gros Michel banana variety, also due to disease. Near-100% loss of a food crop, even a luxury one, is an alarming thing to see though. (I was wondering if climate change would be mentioned, but that doesn't seem to be critical there yet. Starting to be noticed in European grape terroir.)

They mention it as a critical factor, the disease is spread by insects, which is spread by hurricanes. The areas they grow the oranges never used to get hurricanes. > Hurricanes turned out to be a vector for spreading the little winged bug. The wind carried the psyllid all over the state, dropping it off in hundreds of thousands of acres of groves. > It was the perfect storm. And then, of course, there were the actua…

Native Floridian here... although the story does not mention it central FL was hit in 2004 by hurricanes Charley, Frances and Jeanne, and in 2005 was affected by Hurricane Wilma as well. Before that you have to go back to the 1940s before inland central Florida was affected by hurricane force winds. I think the article left that out for editorial reasons, the recent hurricanes in the past few years the article mentions really contributed to the final demise of the orange industry.

And yes, you used to be able to go outside at night in March and April smell the beautiful scent of the orange blossoms. It is certainly something of "Old Florida" that I miss.

Re: What killed the Florida orange?

#174

Post by wolfie69 »

patwolf wrote: post #157
HugoTea wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They mention it as a critical factor, the disease is spread by insects, which is spread by hurricanes. The areas they grow the oranges never used to get hurricanes. > Hurricanes turned out to be a vector for spreading the little winged bug. The wind carried the psyllid all over the state, dropping it off in hundreds of thousands of acres of groves. > It was the perfect storm. And then, of course, there were the actua…

Regardless of the debate of whether climate change has intensified hurricanes, it seems odd to blame hurricanes for being a vector for spreading the bugs. Wouldn't the bugs have spread via wind even if it wasn't climate change induced hurricane winds?

The hurricanes spread the insects rapidly over a very large area, within a few days. With so many hurricanes coming so frequently the areal coverage overwhelmed what could have been a response.

Re: What killed the Florida orange?

#175

Post by ben_w »

Auracle wrote: post #171
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well now I'm thoroughly confused. Because your data does seem to overturn the conventional wisdom. Do actual climate scientists claim we're getting more, and stronger, hurricanes now than we did before?

By the way, I know I saw someone point out the same data at least 5 years ago - probably more like 10. At some point the discourse changed from “just because it’s a cold winter doesn’t mean that global warming isn’t happening” to “every hurricane/wildfire is due to climate change” and it’s ridiculous. I honestly think a lot of young people don’t realize that while climate change is probably real our weather and varia…

> I honestly think a lot of young people don’t realize that while climate change is probably real our weather and variability hasn’t changed that much - yet, at least.

"Much" is one of those vague words, where it's true and false depending on your meaning.

If you live on any of the transition zones between climates, as I did growing up, it is directly visible: My experience of snow in the south coast of the UK was almost entirely in the early years of my childhood, and family photos of my older siblings show that they had even more than me. My parents had experiences of even deeper and longer cold, with ponds freezing completely solid, not just a layer of ice on the top.

I can easily imagine someone who lives in the parts of the US where all the winter urban snow photos come from, may not notice the loss of a 1-2 centimetres out of 100cm of snowfall, but when it's your last centimetre, it's much easier to spot.

Re: What killed the Florida orange?

#176

Post by WorldMaker »

slibhb wrote: post #160
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well now I'm thoroughly confused. Because your data does seem to overturn the conventional wisdom. Do actual climate scientists claim we're getting more, and stronger, hurricanes now than we did before?

> Do actual climate scientists claim we're getting more, and stronger, hurricanes now than we did before? The general line is that climate change has probably increased the amount of rainfall associated with hurricanes, possibly the severity of hurricanes (due to sea level rise and warmer water) but there isn't good evidence that it has increased the frequency of hurricanes.

I've heard climate scientists that describe climate change as a "more energy in the system" phenomenon. The overall system for now is mostly the same, but every event inside of it has "more energy" than it had before.

For hurricanes this seems especially problematic because the historical categorization system is based on radar-observed width of the storm. "More energy" means that the categories stay the same over time, but every category is getting worse (more rainfall, heavier/faster winds, further travel, higher damage).

As with so many statistical phenomenon, it's also a reminder to be careful what metrics you are trying to compare. Comparing just the hurricane categories to historic values may just be the exact sort of wrong metric, for these "more energy" concerns.

Re: What killed the Florida orange?

#177

Post by JumpCrisscross »

WorldMaker wrote: post #176
slibhb wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Do actual climate scientists claim we're getting more, and stronger, hurricanes now than we did before? The general line is that climate change has probably increased the amount of rainfall associated with hurricanes, possibly the severity of hurricanes (due to sea level rise and warmer water) but there isn't good evidence that it has increased the frequency of hurricanes.

I've heard climate scientists that describe climate change as a "more energy in the system" phenomenon. The overall system for now is mostly the same, but every event inside of it has "more energy" than it had before. For hurricanes this seems especially problematic because the historical categorization system is based on radar-observed width of the storm. "More energy" means that the categories stay the same over ti…

> the historical categorization system is based on radar-observed width of the storm

Now I'm confused again, because OP used data going back to 1851. We didn't have radar in the 19th century.

Re: What killed the Florida orange?

#178

Post by scheme271 »

jnsaff2 wrote: post #81
scheme271 wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sugarcane was due to cheaper sources. Pineapples I think was due to economic factors as well. Basically, one of the most isolated population centers in the world adds a lot of cost due to shipping things in and out and being a US state imposes means that labor isn't going to be dirt cheap.

Also Jones Act: ships from Asia can't pick up cargo from Hawaii on the way and drop it in mainland US. This means that shipping between Hawaii and mainland is much more expensive then it needs to be.

The Jones Act doesn't affect shipping prices all that much. If you look at the shipping lanes, the shortest and best shipping routes between Asia and the west coast travels by Alaska. Going to Hawaii adds multiple days and thousands of miles to the route. Also, the harbors in Hawaii aren't equipped to handle the large container ships used for trans-pac shipping routes so the cargo ships couldn't stop in Honolulu even if they wanted to. Finally, the Jones Act allows ships coming from Asia to stop in Hawaii to drop off cargo and then continue on to the west coast to unload the rest of their cargo, this doesn't really happen.

Re: What killed the Florida orange?

#179

Post by lovich »

eth0up wrote: post #138
lovich wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Florida is a democracy. Florida voted for leaders who ignore these problems because of “woke”. Floridians deserve the results. I will grant clemency for anyone who was born there and isn’t wealthy enough to move out. I will grant 10x hate for anyone who moved there for the politics and complains about the results.

Born here. And for me, the government is the pine flats, the oaks and palmetto scrubs, the springs, the sea, the spirit of the Timucua, sandhill cranes, thunderstorms. If Billy Bowlegs or Geronimo come back, I'll vote for them. I'd consider voting for someone who actually respected this place, but I'm not sure anyone does. I've been to nearly every state, and some other lands, but there's no place finer. I'm pure Flo…

> I've been to nearly every state, and some other lands, but there's no place finer. I'm pure Florida man.

Ok, then you have the capability of leaving and haven’t. I judge you heavily.

Everytime I hear a southron bastard crow about secession I agree with them. Especially when I see the morons making up maps of the “national divorce” that give New England the gas fields of Pennsylvania.

I hope bugs bunny manifests into reality and cuts Florida off of the mainland.

Re: What killed the Florida orange?

#180

Post by WorldMaker »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #177
WorldMaker wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've heard climate scientists that describe climate change as a "more energy in the system" phenomenon. The overall system for now is mostly the same, but every event inside of it has "more energy" than it had before. For hurricanes this seems especially problematic because the historical categorization system is based on radar-observed width of the storm. "More energy" means that the categories stay the same over ti…

> the historical categorization system is based on radar-observed width of the storm Now I'm confused again, because OP used data going back to 1851. We didn't have radar in the 19th century.

Ah, sorry. I suppose it is only fair to mention using the wrong metrics and getting the exact metric wrong myself. Today it is radar-observed wind speed and historically there were other less efficient means to test or at least estimate wind speed.

The original point still stands that Hurricanes are defined by only the one metric and other metrics have room to grow bigger as the category stays the same:

> The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating based only on a hurricane's maximum sustained wind speed. This scale does not take into account other potentially deadly hazards such as storm surge, rainfall flooding, and tornadoes.

From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

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