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Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
171–180 of 263 posts
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#172Say whatever you want about the merits of prediction markets. But I just don't see a way those benefits outweigh the societal dangers of these constant reminders that people in or close to power can freely profit from their positions in the ways the rest of the population can't. There's always talk about the dangers of disincentivizing job creators, but what happens when a society routinely disincentives job havers i…
The current setup does sort of seem like a tax on being stupid. Why would any non-insider participate in these markets? You’re just asking to get screwed. Though it’s not that different from the stock market, where the folks at WSB happily give their money to Citadel, Jane Street, and friends, because every once a while, one of them hits it big after going all in that the ball lands on green. Gambling is a hell of a…
> The current setup does sort of seem like a tax on being stupid.
More like a tax on being ethical or having any morality.
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#173Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because there are many things where insurance doesn't exist.
Ok let's work on that then. But meanwhile, close down unregulated websites like polymarket, where there is no verification of actual damage.
You can't just "work on that".
Insurance works on repeatable, predictable risks based on models.
You can't get insurance against a military attack. But you can hedge using a prediction market. It's essentially the version of insurance for one-off events, that relies on wagers since you can't use models.
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#174You'd have to be spectacularly stupid to bet on these kinds of things without having insider knowledge, because you ought to know good and damn well by now that the people with insider knowledge are DEFINITELY betting on them.
This was my thought. If these markets continue allowing insiders, it’ll drive all of the cash from regular people away. So there will be way less money for insiders to win even if they are allowed. So the perception of insiders is pretty bad for prediction markets as a business imo. The sooner they knock off the rhetoric about the “theory” behind prediction markets and start thinking about it like a business, the soo…
> If these markets continue allowing insiders
What are the chances of large bets being made by anyone who isn’t an insider?
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#175In my opinion the entire prediction market is simply a way to legalize insider trading and war profiteering.
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#176These are clearly leaks and probably violate other laws. If the Trump administration actually cared, they would pursue them.
They aggressively pursue other leaks, including searching journalists' property.
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#177Say whatever you want about the merits of prediction markets. But I just don't see a way those benefits outweigh the societal dangers of these constant reminders that people in or close to power can freely profit from their positions in the ways the rest of the population can't. There's always talk about the dangers of disincentivizing job creators, but what happens when a society routinely disincentives job havers i…
what you’re describing kind of sounds like the wild west or the settlers frontier or the Industrial Revolution, all things that were actually quite beneficial, however in our current environment where everything has been regulated and captured by corporate lobbied legal machinery it’s much worse to have heavy restriction on the masses with the monied upper class able to grease the wheels, if we’re going to have the freedom we need to boom a healthy economy for everyone we need far more wild west from top to bottom
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#178Earlier quoted context omitted.
The current setup does sort of seem like a tax on being stupid. Why would any non-insider participate in these markets? You’re just asking to get screwed. Though it’s not that different from the stock market, where the folks at WSB happily give their money to Citadel, Jane Street, and friends, because every once a while, one of them hits it big after going all in that the ball lands on green. Gambling is a hell of a…
> The current setup does sort of seem like a tax on being stupid. More like a tax on being ethical or having any morality.
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Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#179Earlier quoted context omitted.
Airlines in particular prefer to have a predictable price of fuel, whatever it might be, so they buy futures.
That still does not satisfactorily answer the question though, why don't they just sign a purchase order with N month lead time? That still gives a well defined price ahead of time.
The people who need the constant price do that, but creating this contract generates an investment at the same time. The person promising the price is taking a premium to take the risk, they can the sell that risk in a free market.
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#180You'd have to be spectacularly stupid to bet on these kinds of things without having insider knowledge, because you ought to know good and damn well by now that the people with insider knowledge are DEFINITELY betting on them.
You also have to be quite stupid to do it with insider knowledge. A bunch of them have been caught in Israel.
Being indicted for treason and treason like charges sounds worse than the SEC coming after you.