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Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning

adlrocha.substack.com

171–180 of 402 posts

Re: Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning

#171
post #73

Gemma4 in my view is good enough to do things similar to Gemini 2.5 flash, meaning if I point it code and ask for help and there is a problem with the code it’ll answer correctly in terms of suggestions but it’s not great at using all tools or one shooting things that require a lot of context or “expert knowledge” If a couple more iterations of this, say gemma6 is as good as current opus and runs completely locally o…

similar vibes as "640k ought to be enough for anybody"

Look at the whole history of computing. How many times has the pendulum swung from thin to fat clients and back?

I don't think it's even mildly controversial to say that there will be an inflection point where local models get Good Enough and this iteration of the pendulum shall swing to fat clients again.

Re: Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning

#172
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

similar vibes as "640k ought to be enough for anybody"

Well you can do a lot with 640k…if you try. We have 16G in base machines and very few people know how to try anymore. The world has moved on, that code-golf time is now spent on ad algorithms or whatever. Escaping the constraint delivered a different future than anticipated.

Especially if the 640k are "in your hand" and the rest is "in the cloud"

Re: Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning

#173

Using the author’s logic, it is Google then that will lead. Unlike Apple, they have even more devices in the field PLUS they have strong models PLUS Apple uses Google models.

Google is an advertisement company at the end of the day and that's a conflict of interest with user privacy.

Re: Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning

#175
post #97

Honestly, I think part of the reason Apple hasn't jumped deep into AI is due to two big reasons: 1) Apple is not a data company. 2) Apple hasn't found a compelling, intuitive, and most of all, consistent, user experience for AI yet. Regarding point 2: I haven't seen anyone share a hands down improved UX for a user driven product outside of something that is a variation of a chat bot. Even the main AI players can't ad…

As for consistency, Apple's latest UI shows they don't give a damn any more.

Re: Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning

#176
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

iMessage is AFAIK only really a big thing in the US.

I totally buy this as someone located in the US, but what is everybody else using? It can’t be WhatsApp? Is everyone sending all their connection graphdata to Meta?

in my country it's Whatsapp, and has been since before it was acquired by Meta

Re: Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning

#177
> Think about the App Store. Apple didn’t build the apps, they built the platform where apps ran best, and the ecosystem followed.

As far as I remember Apple basically got forced into opening the platform to 3rd party developers. Not by regulation but by public pressure. It wasn't their initial intention to allow it.

Re: Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning

#178

Nvidia restricts gamer cards in data centers through licensing, eventually they will probably release a cheaper consumer AI card to corner the local AI market that can't be used in data centers if they feel too much of a threat from Apple. Imagine a future where Nvidia sells the exact same product at completely different prices, cheap for those using local models, and expensive for those deploying proprietary models…

Nvidia-Mediatek Arm laptops will compete with Qualcomm and Apple, https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmarkman/2026/03/16/the-arm-i... [WSJ] sources expect.. first units in H1 2026, with GTC as the most likely unveiling stage.. NPU reportedly exceeds both Intel and AMD’s current neural processing units.. If the integrated GPU delivers RTX 5070-class performance in a thin laptop form factor, it would eliminate the need for…

If they can get Valve/Steam for an OS that handles most games well that could in fact be huge if the pricepoint is a bit lower initially but with plenty of unified RAM (both for AI but also games).

That said, gaming laptops cooling issues are so often around the GPU so it'd also require a seasoned manufacturer to make it correctly.

Re: Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning

#179
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

iMessage is AFAIK only really a big thing in the US.

I totally buy this as someone located in the US, but what is everybody else using? It can’t be WhatsApp? Is everyone sending all their connection graphdata to Meta?

You understand that Facebook and Instagram are also very popular yes?

Re: Apple's accidental moat: How the "AI Loser" may end up winning

#180

In the larger scheme of things, the great winner will be open source, as we'll simply use AI to recreate the entire MacOS ecosystem :)

If AI coding does go anywhere and stays affordable, this would be a great outcome.

I think AI needs to greatly accelerate open hardware design and make advanced manufacturing more accessible to really make a dent.

User facing software is not the limiting factor in AI assisted replacement of Apple products.

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