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US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

nytimes.com

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Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#171

Post by padjo »

leereeves wrote: post #157
acdha wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's true not every single IRGC member or leader can be bombed out of existence. But many can. In the last half century, we tried that in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and now Iran. When is it going to start working? The problem is that blowing stuff up creates enemies, not friends, so each time you kill one senior leader you create incentives for the other people those bombs killed to decide you’re worse than the ta…

In 2024, a survey by GAMAAN estimated that "A significant majority of Iranians (around 70%) oppose the continuation of the Islamic Republic." Then the government of Iran murdered thousands to crush protests and retain power. Why would the people of Iran still be upset at the death of senior government leaders? (Apart from the minority who already supported the regime, continued to support them even as they killed pro…

What direction do you reckon support has been trending in the last month?

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#172

Post by hariharan_uno »

thefounder wrote: post #54
kumarvvr wrote: post #23

What leverage does US actually have here? Even Israel for that matter? The only options left for US are large scale bombing, like in Vietnam or Cambodia OR putting soldiers on the ground. Going on for years. Or drop a nuke. Bombing will be of limited use and extremely costly, because is Iran is too large. Its a geographical fortress, mostly large mountain ranges, or deserts. Soldiers on the ground means a large scale…

I think dropping a nuke is not out of question. We just have to watch the language of the U.S administration over the next weeks.

yeah, I think this will escalate further and US might drop a tactical one on some island (military but not heavily inhabited) as a show of power. I don't see a way back out otherwise for US.

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#173

Post by M95D »

megamike wrote: post #153

What China Just Learned From the Iran War: Beijing watched America bomb Iran and drew its own conclusions about red lines, deterrence, and Taiwan. The lessons are not the ones Washington wants China to learn: A blockade of Taiwan would hurt the global economy more than Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/04/china-...

What blocade? The invasion will be over in a day, or a weekend at most. On Monday, business as usual.

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#174

Post by leereeves »

padjo wrote: post #171
leereeves wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In 2024, a survey by GAMAAN estimated that "A significant majority of Iranians (around 70%) oppose the continuation of the Islamic Republic." Then the government of Iran murdered thousands to crush protests and retain power. Why would the people of Iran still be upset at the death of senior government leaders? (Apart from the minority who already supported the regime, continued to support them even as they killed pro…

What direction do you reckon support has been trending in the last month?

I have no information about that, and of course no one currently in Iran would dare say anything bad about the regime right now.

However, I find it hard to imagine anyone thinking:

"I didn't like the Islamic Republic, and I was pissed and afraid when they killed thousands of protestors, but now that some of the leaders have been killed by the US, I've changed my mind about the Islamic Republic."

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#175

Post by HDThoreaun »

energy123 wrote: post #141
ndsipa_pomu wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really can't see how the US can fully reopen the strait without a major land invasion. They'd need to occupy pretty much all the coastal regions to be able to prevent drones (air and sea) being launched to attack ships trying to pass through. The thing is that ships are going to be vulnerable for all of their journey through the Strait, so it's not like the US can just defend one part. They could try using escort s…

The former CENTCOM commander said that all you need to reopen the strait is fires and short raids, not occupying the territory.

Iran can fire drones from the interior that they store in underground caves until minutes before they fire them. Fires and short raids won’t accomplish shit.

“No one thought Iran would be able to close the straight” -Trump

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#176

Post by dimator »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #86
drnick1 wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regime change isn't the goal per se, but disarmament is. Angry mullahs without missiles and nukes are harmless.

Whoever told you this was lying to you. Trump released a statement on the first night of the war explicitly stating that regime change was the goal. Disarmament is the new goal he fabricated when the first one didn't work.

I don't think there's any point in digging into soil to implant the goal posts anymore, because they'll be moved in 6 hours. Best to just use a couple of shills to hold them up.

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#177

Post by dimator »

raincole wrote: post #57
dimator wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Similar shit happening in North Korea. Should the US go there next? Regime change was NOT the goal, right? Wasn't that the party line?

No one goes for NK because they have nuke. The exact situation the US/Israel try to prevent for Iran.

This is Saddam's WMDs all over again.

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#178

Post by padjo »

wat10000 wrote: post #29
dh2022 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Genuinely interested: why not? Thanks!

The Vice President is an elected official just like the President. He doesn’t work for the President and he’s not subordinate, he just has almost no power. The only way to remove a VP is death or impeachment. I suppose the President could induce death, but that’s not really firing per se.

He could literally throw him under a bus and not suffer any legal consequences. It's probably 50/50 whether or not senate Republican would vote to impeach him after that.

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#179

Post by phs318u »

Protostome wrote: post #169
4gotunameagain wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And the neighbouring states want the terrorist state of Israel to disarm and stop expanding and occupying territories. Why is Israel not doing that, if they want peace so much ?

There's nothing Israelis want more than give up their military. but when countries like Iran vow to "wipe israel off the map" and Hamas states in its covenant to annhilate all jews, what sane country would give up its army? Second, Israel does not expand. On the contrary - Israel returned the Sinai Desert which is a territory x3 times its size back to Egypt for peace.

> There's nothing Israelis want more than give up their military.

Watch this and tell me that your statement still holds true. Israel has descended to the level of the worst of its enemies. There is no moral high ground left.

https://substack.com/@teeashby/note/p-193468370

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#180

Post by [deleted] »

adrian_b wrote: post #77
3eb7988a1663 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Given that the US failed to seize Iran's uranium stockpile I did not think this was possible. The three sites that were bombed in 2025 are all pretty centrally located within the country. Even if you can get troops there, the facilities are hardened and at least partially underground. Depending on how effective you believe the 2025 strikes to be, some of the facilities may be collapsed under tons of rock. There is n…

It seems that there was a failed US incursion towards Isfahan, where much of the enriched uranium is buried, a week ago. They could not reach their target and they had to scuttle and abandon two MC-130J airplanes and a helicopter, apparently because they were too damaged by the air defense to fly back. The official version is that the purpose of the failed incursion was to save the crew of the previously shot down F-…

[deleted]
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