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Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

bbc.com

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Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#171

Post by phs318u »

singleshot_ wrote: post #168
AnimalMuppet wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Plant-based ones that were harvested by machines that burn petroleum.

That’s a pretty amazing definition of upstream. I imagine you probably understand that plastics, pharmaceuticals, and fertilizers are made out of petroleum derivatives, right? Since you seem pretty smart: are there petroleum based cooking oils?

The machinery to make them, the fertilisers to grow them, the plastic to package them, the transport to deliver them. It ain’t just cooking oils that will be massively impacted. The entire food chain in the western world is reliant on petrochemicals. The only question is the lag between now and when those impacts start being felt and this translates into bumped prices and/or shortages.

EDIT: corrected an autocorrection.

Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#172

Post by megous »

foxglacier wrote: post #140
steve_adams_86 wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> becomes worth it to risk the ship There are a lot of human beings on those ships. It strikes me as awful that their lives would be risked under these circumstances, and that happening wouldn't really be a proper solution to the overarching problem. It would be something of a tragedy if things got so severe that the risk was assumed worthwhile and presumably, people on board were exposed to it outside of their will…

People kept sailing past the Houthis even though some ships got attacked. They sailed past Somali pirates too. So ships obviously tolerate some level of risk from violence.

Yeah, Ansar Allah were quite nice even when attacking the civilian ships. Not a lot of victims.

Iran is not very nice to the ships, judging from videos and results of attacks.

There's a very noticeable difference. There are no parties, music videos, ship tours to abducted ships... with Iran, etc.

With Iran, the ships end up like this https://t.me/QudsNen/216170 or this https://t.me/presstv/179430

Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#173

Post by square_usual »

poopinurmouth wrote: post #167
UncleOxidant wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who mentioned 80%? During the 1973–74 Arab oil embargo, the disruption removed approximately 4.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) from the market, which constituted about 7% of the global oil supply at the time. This disruption significantly impacted global supplies. 20% is a lot more than 7%. This could be worse than 1973-74. As a 10year-old in 1973 I remember spending a lot of time in the backseat of the station wago…

[flagged]

Yeah, and that's why gas prices in the US have not changed at all in the past month!

Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#174

Post by AnimalMuppet »

singleshot_ wrote: post #168
AnimalMuppet wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Plant-based ones that were harvested by machines that burn petroleum.

That’s a pretty amazing definition of upstream. I imagine you probably understand that plastics, pharmaceuticals, and fertilizers are made out of petroleum derivatives, right? Since you seem pretty smart: are there petroleum based cooking oils?

Here's my definition of upstream: If the petroleum stops, the cooking oil stops, even though the cooking oil is 100% plant-based.

Given that what we're talking about is disruptions caused by a shortage of petroleum, is there any other definition of "upstream" that is meaningful for the conversation?

Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#175

Post by pwarner »

SirensOfTitan wrote: post #36

Scanning some of the early comments here, and acting as-if the oil and LNG disruptions is just a question of renewable investment is naive. This is the worst energy crisis in modern history, and little of the western world has really started feeling the effects yet: https://thedispatch.com/newsletter/dispatch-energy/iran-war-... Petro is pretty much upstream of everything: plastics, fertilizers, pharmaceuticals, cook…

Missing in discussion is that the loss of mideastern oil is being offset by releases from strategic reserves. But those will end, creating even more shortages.

Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#176

Post by tialaramex »

leonidasrup wrote: post #40
mlinhares wrote: post #2

Hope that gets Europe to invest in renewables and leave oil behind.

Europe would be better served by doing, what France did in 1974. "As a direct result of the 1973 oil crisis, on 6 March 1974 Prime Minister Pierre Messmer announced what became known as the 'Messmer Plan', a hugely ambitious nuclear power program aimed at generating most of France's electricity from nuclear power. At the time of the oil crisis most of France's electricity came from foreign oil. " "Work on the first t…

> Europe would be better served by doing, what France did in 1974.

This is 2026. Doing things in 1974 isn't an option because time's arrow points the wrong way.

If you want Europe to do things now that it should have done in 1974 you'd need to explain how it'll stall on all the consequences for years. France, which you held up as a model says it can build a nuclear generator in about 5-6 years, but none of these optimistic projections came true this century, more typically the plant takes 10-15 years and it can be more.

So, suppose they start today likely they'll say the generator goes online in 2032. How does that help with the crisis Trump caused this month ? Worse, come 2032 the date is likely to be 2040 instead.

Now, renewables go a lot faster. For solar it's genuinely possible to get paperwork done in January and be selling electricity made with those panels by summer. It's not easy, plenty of projects will be delayed out a 1-2 years, particularly if local government don't want the project, but with a following wind it can really be the same year. Wind is slower, but still you will almost certainly build it and switch it on in five years, the optimistic guess France never hits for its nuclear plants.

Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#177

Post by 12lak-123 »

jmyeet wrote: post #161
SirensOfTitan wrote: post #36

Scanning some of the early comments here, and acting as-if the oil and LNG disruptions is just a question of renewable investment is naive. This is the worst energy crisis in modern history, and little of the western world has really started feeling the effects yet: https://thedispatch.com/newsletter/dispatch-energy/iran-war-... Petro is pretty much upstream of everything: plastics, fertilizers, pharmaceuticals, cook…

Most people just don't understand what a monumental rewrite of global politics this is and (IMHO) it will go down as the worst foreign policy mistake in US history and it's not even close. Some might say "what about Vietnam?" No, this is worse, geopolitically. WhY/ Because there was never any possibility of success. The US simply doesn't have the military capability to depose the regime or open the Strait and Pentago…

Yes, but is it a mistake or deliberate? The Iran war has been planned since GW Bush.

Now we have a president who hates the EU and Ukraine more than he hates Russia and China and he has Greenland ambitions.

He is currently dragging out the war and Rubio was in the EU to string people along yet again.

If he drags out the war long enough, the EU might need to make concessions on certain issues.

What the EU should do but is too stupid to do: It should immediately negotiate with China and Russia to create jealousy (that is what Trump does, he understands that) and say: While you are doing your extended Iran adventure, we'll drop sanctions on Russian gas and import LNG.

That is literally the only language Trump understands and then the deep state will put him on a leash. Trump would hate nothing more than EU overtures to Putin while he is left out of the negotiations.

Sometimes you have to use all options to get things done.

Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#178

Post by [deleted] »

spwa4 wrote: post #132
SirensOfTitan wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that Iran can defend the strait against the world's most advanced military with drones built with commercial hardware for 30-50K per drone. And that doesn't even take into account escalation, as if the US escalates then Iran will likely start targeting critical infrastructure in the region, making the crisis worse. The US and Israel are rapidly running out of munitions, while Iran is being resupplied b…

[flagged]

[deleted]

Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#179

Post by dwroberts »

kpil wrote: post #121
thrownawaysz wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This could easily spiral out of control and cause a level of suffering across the world (esp the global south) most of us on this forum have not lived to see. Daily anxiety attack thanks. As a european I think we are way too vulnerable. Countries divided, rich getting richer, more and more poor people who can barely afford food, and that's in Europe let alone talk about what happens with the poor in Africa and Asia.…

We don't "need a global reset" It's an apocalyptical mind-bug. All times have an eschatology - ours seems to be climate collapse. It used to be nuclear war. The media is selling a story. In reality everything is still getting better. People are healthier, richer, and better off in almost every measurable way, all over the world, including Africa and Asia. Yes, there are some dark clouds. A long list. But the problems…

> ours seems to be climate collapse. It used to be nuclear war

Except climate collapse is actually happening already, gradually.

There were escalating tensions during the Cold War, but it wasn’t like there were actual nukes being dropped in slow motion

Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#180

Post by steve_adams_86 »

throwawaytea wrote: post #135
steve_adams_86 wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> becomes worth it to risk the ship There are a lot of human beings on those ships. It strikes me as awful that their lives would be risked under these circumstances, and that happening wouldn't really be a proper solution to the overarching problem. It would be something of a tragedy if things got so severe that the risk was assumed worthwhile and presumably, people on board were exposed to it outside of their will…

100 people will die on American roads today, and another tomorrow. Most of them die because they commute to work because a lower paying job closer, or a smaller dwelling near their job, isn't that appealing. Another portion will die because driving aggressively and fast seemed fun. Another portion will die because they like alcohol more than safety.

Yes, but I don't think we should accept these deaths either, and I see them as worth preventing and avoiding as well.

I also see false equivalence here in that the risk of death doesn't seem fungible. You're taking an aggregate death toll distributed across hundreds of millions of people, involving totally different voluntariness and causal structures.

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