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What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

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Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#171

Post by tomrod »

throw0101c wrote: post #157
mark_l_watson wrote: post #25

The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting. The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they…

> Calculation of unemployment […] Define "unemployment". There are six (U-1 to -6) ways of classification in the US: * https://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm * https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-... * https://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/unemployment.asp And the fact that they're different between the US and other countries, and between other countries and other-other countries is well recognized;…

Kudos to this point.

For those not realizing that unemployment has several definitions - isn't it wonderful that all were published AND all are well-documented?

It's these points of reliability and trustworthiness that, complexity aside, we are losing from chaotic administration.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#172

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

silvestrov wrote: post #144
PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will be no "peripheral states flipping" in the USA. Secession is not an option here.

This is only true as long as there is money for the military. When money is gone, the military is gone. Money goes easily when a country has a large debt and need other countries to continue to buy into that debt.

It's not the military that makes it impossible.

It's the incredible level of interwoven left/right, progressive/conservative, urban/rural populations in more or less every state.

More people voted for the current president in CA than in more or less any other state. Yet it is viewed as a "blue" state. The millions of Democratic voters in large cities like Houston or Atlanta may not control their state legislatures, but they are not going to sit by as those legislatures attempt to secede. Rural voters across most states are not going to sit by while their urban-controlled legislatures attempt to secede.

We don't have "peripheral" states here, and we don't have "red or blue" states. We have a mostly urban/rural divide that does not follow state boundaries in any sense at all.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#173

Post by throw0101c »

_heimdall wrote: post #112
jeffbee wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your comment is broadly misleading. In fact, I would say that "shadow stats" guys like you have enabled the destruction of the system by creating the space to cast doubt on the valid methods used by BLS. BLS unemployment metrics have a valid basis and where they differ from Eurostat those differences are minor and with rational basis (such as 16 vs. 15 year old starting age).

It is tough, though, for me to fully buy labor statistics when it has become the norm recently for them to be revised down. This spans back into Biden's term as well so it isn't one party either. With a valid measure I would expect a roughly even distribution over time between underestimates and overestimates. For a valid measure worth considering I'd also expect the stat to be released later when revisions are less…

> It is tough, though, for me to fully buy labor statistics when it has become the norm recently for them to be revised down.

There have been revisions since the forever, and this is because they depend in part of surveys, and if companies (and the people with-in them) don't bother responding in a timely or accurate manner then that's going to throw the sampling off.

> CES estimates are considered preliminary when first published each month because not all respondents report their payroll data by the initial release of employment, hours, and earnings. BLS continues to collect payroll data and revises estimates twice before the annual benchmark update (see benchmark revisions section below).

* https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/ces/presentation.htm#revisions

Post-COVID surveying seems to have become more difficult (and BLS budget stagnation/cuts haven't helped). This has been a known issue for a while; see Odd Lots episode "Some of America's Most Important Economic Data Is Decaying":

> Gathering official economic data is a huge process in the best of times. But a bunch of different things have now combined to make that process even harder. People aren't responding to surveys like they used to. Survey responses have also become a lot more divided along political lines. And at the same time, the Trump administration wants to cut back on government spending, and the worry is that fewer official resources will make tracking the US economy even harder for statistical departments that were already stretched. Bill Beach was commissioner of labor statistics and head of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics during Trump's first presidency and also during President Biden's. On this episode, we talk to him about the importance of official data and why the rails for economic data are deteriorating so quickly.

* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfgpqVixeIw

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#174

Post by JumpCrisscross »

_heimdall wrote: post #112
jeffbee wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your comment is broadly misleading. In fact, I would say that "shadow stats" guys like you have enabled the destruction of the system by creating the space to cast doubt on the valid methods used by BLS. BLS unemployment metrics have a valid basis and where they differ from Eurostat those differences are minor and with rational basis (such as 16 vs. 15 year old starting age).

It is tough, though, for me to fully buy labor statistics when it has become the norm recently for them to be revised down. This spans back into Biden's term as well so it isn't one party either. With a valid measure I would expect a roughly even distribution over time between underestimates and overestimates. For a valid measure worth considering I'd also expect the stat to be released later when revisions are less…

> With a valid measure I would expect a roughly even distribution over time between underestimates and overestimates

This is a valid hypothesis. It’s wrong, and I’ll explain why. (It’s a bad and invalid thing to conclude.)

If measurement errors were iid, you’d be correct. But they’re not. They’re well documented for not being so. Earlier survey results are biased by directional response bias inasmuch as the employers with the lease changes respond first. So the earliest releases tend to match whatever was going on before. Then the employers who had to do paperwork respond. And then, finally, someone gets around to calling the folks who never got back. Some of them aren’t around anymore.

So yeah, the directional tendency in revisions is well documented. And for a long time, the early releases were appreciated. But maybe American statistical and media literacy is such that only final releases should be released, which would mean we’d always be working with data 6 months to a year out of date.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#175

Post by suzzer99 »

culi wrote: post #62
mark_l_watson wrote: post #25

The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting. The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they…

I agree. The super rich have been in "prepper" mode for a long time now https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/sep/04/super-rich-prep... > They started out innocuously and predictably enough. Bitcoin or ethereum? Virtual reality or augmented reality? Who will get quantum computing first, China or Google? Eventually, they edged into their real topic of concern: New Zealand or Alaska? Which region would be less affected…

They're trying to thread the needle of a collapse bad enough that they'll retreat to their bunkers, but not so bad that their bodyguards will turn on them for their gold. Let's see how it works out!

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#176

Post by ks2048 »

arjie wrote: post #39

One of the things I do like about the US, and that I think is a reason for America's ability to meet the challenges this country faces is that it has good data collection and aggregation mechanisms: from the seemingly-banal surveys and so on to satellite remote-sensing. There's three more years to go but afterwards (and perhaps even post the mid-terms) we should be able to hammer back some of this nonsense like being…

> The establishment folks are mostly sensible.

The establishment has been replaced by MAGA and The Heritage Foundation extremists. The "data collection", surveys, remote-sensing etc are things they all want to get rid of and are doing so.

Here's one article from last year about climate datasets being disappeared,

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20250422-usa-scientists-r...

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#177

Post by rrr_oh_man »

ndr42 wrote: post #94
lpa22 wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is the best 400 mil population country in the world

What does "best" means? Which population size would you consider comparable to the US (i assume you don't meant it in a way in which Germany would be the best 83,6 mil population country in the World)?

> i assume you don't meant it in a way in which Germany would be the best 83,6 mil population country in the World

I think that's exactly what OP meant.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#178

Post by suzzer99 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #163
culi wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. The super rich have been in "prepper" mode for a long time now https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/sep/04/super-rich-prep... > They started out innocuously and predictably enough. Bitcoin or ethereum? Virtual reality or augmented reality? Who will get quantum computing first, China or Google? Eventually, they edged into their real topic of concern: New Zealand or Alaska? Which region would be less affected…

> super rich have been in "prepper" mode for a long time now For every prepper in the $100+ million class, I know a hundred who are not. They’re enjoying their lives or working to make more money.

A hundred more preppers who aren't $100+ millionaires? Or a hundred more $100+ millionaires who aren't preppers?

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#179

Post by HarHarVeryFunny »

lpa22 wrote: post #53
looksjjhg wrote: post #7

It’s amazing and terrifying watching an empire die

The US is the best 400 mil population country in the world

Well, it's certainly not the "best" if you remove that population stipulation.

A bit like saying that Walmart is the best 4000 store grocery store in the USA.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#180

Post by DonThomasitos »

actionablefiber wrote: post #170
iugtmkbdfil834 wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a statist, I personally always found it as a fascinating way to look at the future. They are actively preparing for a collapse they themselves are ushering.

It's increasingly a pet theory of mine that the uncontrolled concentration of wealth into the hands of the richest, their subsequent existential ennui, and their disconnect from reality owing to media consolidation and algorithmic content feeds have basically created a world where the superrich are in a "post-game" mentality. There are no further material comforts to obtain. They just want to feel anything at all and…

Impressive thought. It could also be a built-in mechanism by nature to reshuffle the cards.
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