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Most of the US economy is in a recession

businessinsider.com

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Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#171

Post by _heimdall »

dboreham wrote: post #113
_heimdall wrote: post #42

The most compelling hypothesis I've heard for why Iran is bombing GC neighbors is in an attempt to pop the AI bubble. I obviously don't know if that's true, but that would be extremely clever and this article shows how effective it could be.

This is the first time I've seen anyone looking for a reason! Isn't the reason manifestly obvious? They're bombing their enemies. The ones that lobbied Trump to attack Iran, and that host US defense assets.

The GCC countries do host US bases, but where are you sourcing the idea that they lobbied Trump to attack Iran?

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#172

Post by _heimdall »

alephnerd wrote: post #85
_heimdall wrote: post #42

The most compelling hypothesis I've heard for why Iran is bombing GC neighbors is in an attempt to pop the AI bubble. I obviously don't know if that's true, but that would be extremely clever and this article shows how effective it could be.

> The most compelling hypothesis I've heard for why Iran is bombing GC neighbors is in an attempt to pop the AI bubble Huh?!? ADIA, Mubadala, and the PIF are significant players but not that significant. The Gulf States and Iran have had bad blood for generations. There's a reason why car bombings in Al Ahvaz and Sistan-ve-Balochistan were and are respectively a constant occurrence - Khuzestani Arabs and especially B…

What makes you think JM conspiracy pilled? And how would you propose one tries to understand Iran's current motivations with regards to attacking gulf neighbors?

I explicitly didn't say the idea of them attempting to preempt an AI bubble pop is the reason. I explicitly said I don't know if its true.

Yes, there is a long history of bad blood between Sunni and Shiite Muslims. Yes the region is a powderkeg. No, trying to understand the motivations today isn't immediately a conspiracy theory.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#173

Post by 1over137 »

nradov wrote: post #38
ghaff wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do people need those delivery services? Why can't they just cook meals at home like most people do?

Or just go pick up your own take-out food. Like do these customers not have working cars or even bicycles? I understand that there are customers who are stuck at home due to disability or caregiver responsibilities but those are a tiny niche. I've seen able-bodied young people spending a fortune on delivery services, which is just stupid.

> I've seen able-bodied young people spending a fortune on delivery services

Because they can do it from the smartphone, and they only know how to live via their phone.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#174

Post by PearlRiver »

vrosas wrote: post #31
eunos wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if Trump goes Taco, Khamenei Jr won't accept. Remember the adversary also get a vote.

Mojtaba will be dead within a month. What would it say about the entire operation if they just backed off and let Khamenei’s son take over?

The US killed a lot of people in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq and it didn't mean squat.

Are we just doomed to repeat this bullshit?

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#175

Post by bluegatty »

FpUser wrote: post #162
bluegatty wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably not, they are preparing but that does not mean they will ever do it. Xi just faced a mutiny and had to put top generals away. Key people in China military oppose the plans. Even as they near readiness with some things, others remain far behind, and untested. It's an extremely risky move and they don't take those kinds of risks. Island landing 100 km away = Chinese D-Day means absolutely enormous casualties,…

>"If they lose that fight, CPP will be overthrown," Xi will be probably burned at the stake. CPP will most likely proceed with new leader.

Yes, that's probably right.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#176

Post by 1over137 »

readthenotes1 wrote: post #21
ghaff wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do people need those delivery services? Why can't they just cook meals at home like most people do?

I have never eaten a meal that is worth the cleanup past the peanut butter and jelly sandwich

Cleanup? They literally make machines that wash your dishes!

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#177

Post by mr_00ff00 »

conductr wrote: post #156
compootr wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

gdp isn't and will never be a measure for social wellbeing. it's just economic output :)

I think that’s what’s changed though, as GP asked, people want to define recession as closer to the social wellbeing than a metric like gdp that is divorced

Doesn’t this kinda create a problem though? Like a recession implies economic slowdown, but social wellbeing can decrease while the economy is fine.

For example, a plague or severe weather might make the average person have a worse standard of living, but if the economy isn’t net affected, it seems wrong to say we are in a recession.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#178

Post by samrus »

rappatic wrote: post #108

Well yeah, when you exclude all the successful and profitable sectors things do start looking bad. Just in: most people are actually short! Excluding people over 6 feet tall, the average height is only 5 ft 8!

I mean, if evryone is 5' except one guy is 10', and the government goes around saying how we have the tallest peaole, it does get hard to believe

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#179

Post by s1artibartfast »

conductr wrote: post #158
s1artibartfast wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The connection is that GDP/Recession has never been about mainstreet or average joe. Recession is usually bad for Joe and mainstreat, but the opposite is not implied. It is ignorant to think it is or was defined by the average experience.

I feel it’s also ignorant to think it shouldn’t be defined by that experience. Our metrics have been misleading or we just need better ones and/or possibly a new word for how average joe talks about “recession”. A purely academic definition that has no basis in reality seems pointless to me.

purely academic definistions have a tremendous number of purposes.

Just as it would be silly to define a countries military equipment production capacity by public sentiment, the same is true for purely financial GDP.

There are tons of metrics that can used to articulate how the economy feels for average joe. We have low consumer sentiment, lagging median income, GINI, opinion surveys, ect.

Using the word "recession" adds gravitas by claiming something that isnt true.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#180

Post by FpUser »

craftkiller wrote: post #166
FpUser wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"Assuming everyone has cars or bicycles is a very suburban mindset." I live int Toronto which is hardly suburban. It is however choke full of bike-share. Go outside, walk a bit and grab a bicycle. NY obviously does not care.

I don't use the bike share (citibike) because the fee for a "lost" bicycle is $1,200. I saw enough stories online of people who thought they returned the bicycle but it didn't actually lock the bicycle to the stand, and then ended up with a $1,200 fee. I'm not taking on that kind of liability to grab some shawarma. Also NYC needs more bike lanes.

>"I don't use the bike share"

I was in no way asking you. To each their own. I just simply pointed that you are wrong about "suburban mindset".

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