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Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

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Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#171

Post by WalterBright »

TheSpiceIsLife wrote: post #166
Plasmoid wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're actually not that far off. Right now, liquid fuels have about 10x the energy density of batteries. Which absolutely kills it for anything outside of extreme short hop flights. But electric engines are about 3x more efficient than liquid fuel engines. So now we're only 3x-4x of a direct replacement. That means we are not hugely far off. Boeing's next major plane won't run on batteries, but the one afterwards def…

More accurately, the calculation needs to factor in the fact that battery weight doesn’t decrease as charge is used. Commercial aviation’s profitability hinges on being able to carry only as much fuel as strictly[1] required. How can batteries compete with that constraint? Also, commercial aviation aircraft aren’t time-restricted by refuelling requirements. How are batteries going to compete with that? Realistically,…

You laid it out better than I. Thank you!

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#172

Post by breve »

some-guy wrote: post #153
formerly_proven wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Toyota sells bad EVs and was the last OEM to offer one. It’s the most anti-EV OEM by far and engages/engaged in the most EV FUD.

I have only purchased Toyota vehicles (currently in the market for an EV) and it baffles me that Dodge created a Charger in EV form and Toyota hasn’t made even an EV Corolla or Camry.

That's essentially the bZ3. But a Corolla branded BEV will eventually happen:

https://electrek.co/2025/10/13/toyotas-best-selling-car-elec...

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#173

Post by TheSpiceIsLife »

WalterBright wrote: post #164
dehrmann wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Hydrogen is such a terrible idea it was never getting off the ground. It's coming from Toyota because Toyota can't wrap its head around not making engines. Ironically, the place hydrogen might work is airplanes where the energy density of batteries doesn't work.

> the place hydrogen might work is airplanes where the energy density of batteries doesn't work. How is that going to work? Cryogenic liquid hydrogen? High pressure tanks? Those don't seem practical for an airplane. What does work for airplanes is to use carbon atoms that hydrogen atoms can attach to. Then, it becomes a liquid that can easily be stored at room temperature in lightweight tanks. Very high energy densit…

Diesel, kerosene, rocket propelled RP1, and fuel oil / bunker fuel in the case of cargo ships.

It’s not a coincidence that where easy of handling, storage safety, and high energy density are needed everything seems to converge on compression ignition medium to long chain liquid hydrocarbons.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#174

Post by WalterBright »

qingcharles wrote: post #141
dehrmann wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Hydrogen is such a terrible idea it was never getting off the ground. It's coming from Toyota because Toyota can't wrap its head around not making engines. Ironically, the place hydrogen might work is airplanes where the energy density of batteries doesn't work.

The energy density doesn't work for now . Everybody hoping for that breakthrough, and battery aircraft are moving into certain sectors (drone delivery, air taxis etc).

Jet engine and wing efficiency have increased enormously over the last 50 years.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#175

Post by lostlogin »

some-guy wrote: post #153
formerly_proven wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Toyota sells bad EVs and was the last OEM to offer one. It’s the most anti-EV OEM by far and engages/engaged in the most EV FUD.

I have only purchased Toyota vehicles (currently in the market for an EV) and it baffles me that Dodge created a Charger in EV form and Toyota hasn’t made even an EV Corolla or Camry.

An electric Corolla or Camry is my ultimate. I hate driving.

I want an appliance that just works. The Corolla and Camry were this for petrol.

I love my Leaf but it isn’t a Carolla.

What’s with the turning circle on the Leaf?

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#176

Post by freetime2 »

formerly_proven wrote: post #133
breve wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's coming from Toyota because Toyota can't wrap its head around not making engines. Of course they can. Toyota sells BEVs. As time goes on BEVs will become a greater percentage of their sales.

Toyota sells bad EVs and was the last OEM to offer one. It’s the most anti-EV OEM by far and engages/engaged in the most EV FUD.

> Toyota sells bad EVs

The 2026 bZ Woodland [1] looks pretty nice in my opinion.

[1] https://arstechnica.com/cars/2026/02/looks-a-lot-like-an-ele...

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#177

Post by Spivak »

freetime2 wrote: post #151
cosmic_cheese wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The part that's interesting to me is how much the depreciation is posed as negative rather than positive. The long term value of a car is only really relevant if one is constantly cycling through cars and needs the trade-in/resale value. If a car isn't viewed as an investment and/or the intention is to drive it into the ground, depreciation is purely positive because it means that there's insanely good deals on some…

> The long term value of a car is only really relevant if one is constantly cycling through cars and needs the trade-in/resale value. Depreciation is based on real-world qualities of a vehicle that determine how desireable it is to own over time. Toyotas tend to depreciate slower than Mercedes-Benz, for example, because maintenance and repair costs tend to be lower. For someone looking to buy a car new and drive it f…

I don't understand why this is grey, this is exactly correct. Depreciation is good actually ignores the realities of why a car's value is tanking in the first place. The only time high depreciation is good for you as a buyer is if you think the market is mispricing cars and they're actually far more valuable than the cost they're being sold for. But best keep that secret because the market will be quick to correct once it's discovered.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#178

Post by cosmic_cheese »

freetime2 wrote: post #151
cosmic_cheese wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The part that's interesting to me is how much the depreciation is posed as negative rather than positive. The long term value of a car is only really relevant if one is constantly cycling through cars and needs the trade-in/resale value. If a car isn't viewed as an investment and/or the intention is to drive it into the ground, depreciation is purely positive because it means that there's insanely good deals on some…

> The long term value of a car is only really relevant if one is constantly cycling through cars and needs the trade-in/resale value. Depreciation is based on real-world qualities of a vehicle that determine how desireable it is to own over time. Toyotas tend to depreciate slower than Mercedes-Benz, for example, because maintenance and repair costs tend to be lower. For someone looking to buy a car new and drive it f…

I would point out a subtlety here: deprecation is based on perceived value, and this perception tracks much more closely with the glacial knowledge of the larger public than it does with that of an informed individual.

Battery degradation is extremely overrepresented in the minds of the public for example and based mostly on the performance of early entrants like the original Nissan Leaf. Since then, chemistries and management systems have progressed dramatically and rendered it a moot point — most EVs made in the past several years will have their batteries outlast the useful life of the vehicle. In the case the Ariya, Nissan appears to have overcorrected for the Leaf's reputation to such an extreme that they can be fast charged to 100% for many dozens of cycles and still show no capacity loss.

This is a gap in knowledge that smart buyers who are willing to do a little bit of research can exploit and get much more car for their money than would otherwise be possible.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#179

Post by [deleted] »

breve wrote: post #165
Plasmoid wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're actually not that far off. Right now, liquid fuels have about 10x the energy density of batteries. Which absolutely kills it for anything outside of extreme short hop flights. But electric engines are about 3x more efficient than liquid fuel engines. So now we're only 3x-4x of a direct replacement. That means we are not hugely far off. Boeing's next major plane won't run on batteries, but the one afterwards def…

> Boeing's next major plane won't run on batteries, but the one afterwards definitely will. Jet engines work better. Boeing's next major plane will have jet engines, just like their previous major planes. Synthetic, carbon neutral jet fuel will be the future for commercial jets.

[deleted]

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#180

Post by TheSpiceIsLife »

WalterBright wrote: post #170
capitainenemo wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, there's also burning regular fuel in a fuel cell, a FCEV. That doubles the efficiencies over ICE, so I guess that bumps it back up to 8x away? Given the great energy densities and stability in transport of hydrocarbons, there's already some plants out there synthesising them directly from green sources, so that could be a solution if we don't manage to increase battery densities by another order of magnitude.

> there's already some plants out there synthesising them directly from green sources I didn't realize that a "green" carbon atom is different from a regular carbon atom. They both result in CO2 when burned.

And, the two major byproducts of burning hydrocarbons are water and carbon dioxide.

Literally essential plant nutrients, essential for life.

Tangentially related, the 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai volcanic eruption ejected so much water vapour in to the upper atmosphere, it was estimated to have ongoing climate forcing effects for up to 10 years.

Water vapour is a stronger greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.

And we heard precisely nothing about that in the media other than some science specific sources at the time and nothing on an ongoing basis.

From Wikipedia:

The underwater explosion also sent 146 million tons of water from the South Pacific Ocean into the stratosphere. The amount of water vapor ejected was 10 percent of the stratosphere's typical stock. It was enough to temporarily warm the surface of Earth. It is estimated that an excess of water vapour should remain for 5–10 years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Hunga_Tonga%E2%80%93Hunga...

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