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Russia's economy has entered the death zone

economist.com

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Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#171

Post by TiredOfLife »

Haven880 wrote: post #160

The only way is just to cede the land and move on. Keep the people alive. 100 years later one can renegotiate. This kind of copium hope wishing the economy collapse or something like Mongol collapse is just not practical. The longer this drag on, the lesser fertile men exist in Ukraine and the population recovery will take even longer while Russian outbirth in the long run. Sometime to win one has to abide by time. J…

They already ceded huge amount of land in 2014. And 8 years later russia invaded again.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#172

Post by wiseowise »

twelve40 wrote: post #166
wiseowise wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On top of that current Russia isn’t actually “suffering”, certainly nowhere near 90s levels. Cheap crap from Russia replaced Western produce and those with money can buy grey goods. Putin is doing a “good” job insulating general population from the war.

lol you can call it crap if it makes you feel better, but McDonalds was replaced by the same vendors, making the same stuff sourced mostly locally as before, using the same processes that McDonalds used, they just don't send their revenue to the US anymore. Same for Ikea (majority of stuff sold at Ikea was sourced locally and continues under local brands), same for Starbucks - Shokoladnitsa is subjectively better and…

Uhuh, and Coca Cola was replaced by… Coca Cola from near Asian republics. iPhones and GPUs imported for obscene prices. AutoVAZ is pretty much rebranded Chinese cars. Chinese mine and destroy Russian nature for cheap coal to reduce their emissions rate.

Strategic independence my ass.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#173

Post by francescomi »

I live in Dubai, UAE and I can see with my own eyes that the sanctions strategy doesn't work, here Russians buy whathever they like and send it to Russia. There are companies that do this. They hire workers from poor countries promising a good life here in Dubai and they send them in Ukraine to fight. To fight agains Russia we need to attack every nations that have deals with Russia. Let's sanction everyone who makes deals with Russia, let's really block everything that goes to Russia and then maybe the Russian economy with crash

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#174

Post by phicoh »

unsnap_biceps wrote: post #122
phicoh wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The EU, well NATO has the problem what Russia will do when it is no longer at war with Ukraine. There is also the question what the US would if Russia attacks a NATO country. So European NATO countries basically need to keep supporting Ukraine while they try to becomes militarily independent of the US.

EU just needs to support Ukraine until Russia has dug themselves into a hole that will take generations to recover from. Their might be a point where the war hasn't ended but Russia is no longer seen as a threat by the EU.

One issue is that Europe got caught with it pants down. It likely that Europe will keep improving its defense long after it is no long necessary from an economic point of view. Supporting Ukraine in destroying whatever Russia manages to produce is a sound strategy in this context.

If Russia really becomes weaker and the war winds down a bit, then supporting Ukraine is likely to become cheaper as well. But as long as Russia manages to send tons of drones and missiles to Ukraine, Europe should be worried. So Ukraine will remain a testing ground for air defense for a while.

There is also the issue with the Baltic countries and to some extent Finland. Those countries are terrified that Russia will do something stupid.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#175

Post by phicoh »

atmavatar wrote: post #98
phicoh wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia's military force currently relies on men willing to die for money. That could change. But Putin seems reluctant to force the general population to die in Ukraine. Classic economic theory suggests that the amount you need offer to people willing to die goes up over time. For Ukraine the main thing is to get to the point that Russia doesn't attack any more. There is no need for Ukraine to concur any part of Russ…

> Even getting the currently occupied land back is mostly optional. That's only true in the short term. If Russia gets out of the war with Ukraine with territory gains, that only serves as incentive to start up again after Russia can regroup. After all, Putin's stated long-term goal is to take the entire country (among others) and restore the USSR. Of course, taking back the occupied land is also easier said than don…

There is the issue that Russia tends to attack weak countries. The Baltic countries are small and also something Russia would like to have. But part of NATO.

Ukraine was seen as easy to take over. But that was clearly a wrong assessment.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#176

Post by drysine »

francescomi wrote: post #173

I live in Dubai, UAE and I can see with my own eyes that the sanctions strategy doesn't work, here Russians buy whathever they like and send it to Russia. There are companies that do this. They hire workers from poor countries promising a good life here in Dubai and they send them in Ukraine to fight. To fight agains Russia we need to attack every nations that have deals with Russia. Let's sanction everyone who makes…

>They hire workers from poor countries promising a good life here in Dubai and they send them in Ukraine to fight.

Really?

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#177

Post by drysine »

esseph wrote: post #101
neocron wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bad thing is, they always did this and it worked. The good thing is, those russians stopped growing back with birthrates being one of the lowest in the world. We might just see a world without any russians in a few decades. What a dream

What the fuck did I just read

Yeah, imagine how it reads from Russia and what kind of motivation it gives.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#178

Post by drysine »

phicoh wrote: post #48
kergonath wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s very difficult to utterly destroy a country’s military force, particularly a country as huge as Russia, which has also a sizeable population. Ukraine cannot do it on its own and I see no appetite from anybody else to do it, so I think it is unlikely to happen. Of course, it is also very difficult to utterly destroy a country’s economic power. Unfortunately, in Russia’s case, they have the raw materials and a pop…

Russia's military force currently relies on men willing to die for money. That could change. But Putin seems reluctant to force the general population to die in Ukraine. Classic economic theory suggests that the amount you need offer to people willing to die goes up over time. For Ukraine the main thing is to get to the point that Russia doesn't attack any more. There is no need for Ukraine to concur any part of Russ…

>Russia's military force currently relies on men willing to die for money.

And Ukrainian military force currently relies on kidnapping men on the street and dispatching them to the front line after minimal training.[0][4]

The borders of the Ukraine are closed for any man of conscription age - they can't get out.[1]

You can watch the videos with logos of Ukrainian telegram channels and see how it happens[2][3]. Imagine yourself in their place.

[0] https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-recruitment-army/

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_conscription_crisis#...

[2] https://busification.org/

[3] https://t.me/busification

[4] https://busification.org/article

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#179

Post by drysine »

ivan_gammel wrote: post #96
phicoh wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia's military force currently relies on men willing to die for money. That could change. But Putin seems reluctant to force the general population to die in Ukraine. Classic economic theory suggests that the amount you need offer to people willing to die goes up over time. For Ukraine the main thing is to get to the point that Russia doesn't attack any more. There is no need for Ukraine to concur any part of Russ…

This war has already changed. Near-stalemate on the front lines, exchange of strikes on civilian infrastructure (Ukraine made to Belgorod what Russia made to Kiev). It‘s a nuclear war without nukes, aiming at strategic defeat without advancing armies. And Russia definitely has more resources for it.

>It‘s a nuclear war without nukes

No, it's not. Even Ukrainians rarely target civilians.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#180

Post by rich_sasha »

k_bx wrote: post #3

As a Ukrainian at war since day 1 – I don't buy it. They will sell their gas at discount to China until the very end. Military force is the only way to get them to the death zone.

Some interesting entangled thoughts.

As per Clausevitz, wars end either when you kill every last soldier or the ones who are still alive decide not to fight. I can't see the former happening. So it's about ratcheting the pain of continuing to something unbearable. To the level where Russia can't make enough cash selling resources to make more tanks and bombs and also feed people.

The issue is of course that Russians seem incredibly resilient against the latter. They seem happy when Russia wins another 5m^2 of territory even if materially they are massively affected.

But even then if Russia can no longer recruit "marginal" people and the alternative to peace is even larger losses, people might reassess.

The higher the economic cost in the meantime, the sooner this moment comes.

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