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Why I don't think AGI is imminent

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Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#171

Post by hi_hi »

munchler wrote: post #135
hi_hi wrote: post #63

Here's a thought. Lets all arbitrarily agree AGI is here. I can't even be bothered discussing what the definition of AGI is. It's just here, accept it. Or vice versa. Now what....? Whats happening right now that should make me care that AGI is here (or not). Whats the magic thing thats happening with AGI that wasn't happening before? Right, so, not much has changed from 1-2 years ago that I can tell. The job markets…

I think you are missing the point: If we assume that AGI is *not* yet here, but may be here soon, what will change when it arrives? Those changes could be big enough to affect you.

I'm missing the point? I literally asked the same thing you did.

>Now what....? Whats happening right now that should make me care that AGI is here (or not).

Do you have any insight into what those changes might concretely be? Or are you just trying to instil fear in people who lack critical thinking skills?

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#174

Post by hi_hi »

xhcuvuvyc wrote: post #167
hi_hi wrote: post #63

Here's a thought. Lets all arbitrarily agree AGI is here. I can't even be bothered discussing what the definition of AGI is. It's just here, accept it. Or vice versa. Now what....? Whats happening right now that should make me care that AGI is here (or not). Whats the magic thing thats happening with AGI that wasn't happening before? Right, so, not much has changed from 1-2 years ago that I can tell. The job markets…

I actually think it is here. Singularity happened. We're just playing catch up at this point. Has it runaway yet? Not sure, but is it currently in the process of increasing intelligence with little input from us? Yes. Exponential graphs always have a slow curve in the beginning.

Didn't you get the memo? Tuesday. Tuesday is when the Singularity happens.

Will there still be ice cream after Tuesday? General societal collapse would be hard to bare without ice cream.

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#176

Post by lelanthran »

greedo wrote: post #88
Lerc wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Um, what? Are you interpreting scaling to mean adding parameters and nothing else? I'm not entirely sure where you get your confidence that we've past the ideal model size from, but at least that's a clear prediction so you should be able to tell if and when you are proven wrong. Just for the record, do you care to put an actual number on something we won't go past? [edit] Vibe check on user comes out as Contrarian 4…

How are you calculating that? Also, my 1000 foot view would see that "rating" as something most HN commenters would match.

> How are you calculating that?

He's using a tool that was shared on HN some time back that takes a username and generates those states from the posts made.

When I last checked, of over 10k posts, it only uses a few dozen to calculate that score, so it is about as reliable as dowsing.

> Also, my 1000 foot view would see that "rating" as something most HN commenters would match.

Probably. Why else join a discussion if you're going to be a yes-man to every comment?

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#178

Post by dig1 »

hhutw wrote: post #173

Comments here are like: “I’m not an ML expert and I haven’t read your article, but here’s my amazing experience with LLM Agents that changed my life:”

Or like:

"I’m not a mechanical engineer, but I watched a five-minute YouTube video on how a diesel engine works, so I can tell you that mechanical engineering is a solved problem."

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#180

Post by Havoc »

hi_hi wrote: post #63

Here's a thought. Lets all arbitrarily agree AGI is here. I can't even be bothered discussing what the definition of AGI is. It's just here, accept it. Or vice versa. Now what....? Whats happening right now that should make me care that AGI is here (or not). Whats the magic thing thats happening with AGI that wasn't happening before? Right, so, not much has changed from 1-2 years ago that I can tell. The job markets…

Pretty sure marketing team s are already working on AGI v2
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