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TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

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Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#171

Post by insane_dreamer »

LunaSea wrote: post #64
randomNumber7 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is more than 40 years ago and they likely didn't need many bombs for it.

Have you heard of Hong Kong?

be it far from me to defend China, but it didn't take over HK -- the UK's treaty expired and it had to return it; it was always going to be the case

China has a highly authoritarian government that affords its citizens no political freedom (economic freedom, yes, so long as it aligns with the CCP), and is very dangerous (much more so than Russia even); but when it comes to _foreign policy_ despite the sabre-rattling over the 9 dash line, it has so far performed much better (or smarter, one might say) than the US

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#172

Post by rich_sasha »

ekianjo wrote: post #168
rich_sasha wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll take the EU over US, China, UN or any other bit bureaucracy you can think of. And I'll take the EU over ni EU as well.

that seems to be an unpopular take in Europe right now since you have a clear rise of extremist parties in all its corners.

Theres more of them for sure, but net they are a minority. It's big news when one, in one country, comes close to a majority.

Even the extremely Eurosceptic Orban seems much happier in the EU than out.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#173

Post by Izikiel43 »

raincole wrote: post #31
Izikiel43 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

She just won a super majority in their legislature, she can even amend the constitution now.

No, she can't. The process to amend the constitution of Japan [0]: 1. two thirds of the house 2. two thirds of the senate 3. referendum LDP just won the house. IF all LDP house representatives agreed with Takaichi then she could pass the first stage. Only two left! [0]: https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E5%9B%BD%E6...

Thanks for the correction

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#174

Post by johanyc »

mschuster91 wrote: post #125
KK7NIL wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US protected Taiwanese sovereignty for decades before they even had a single semiconductor fab. This idea of "the silicon shield" just shows a complete ignorance of the history of Taiwan and its place in the geopolitical order.

> The US protected Taiwanese sovereignty for decades before they even had a single semiconductor fab. That was before the current administration wiped out the very idea of "soft power" and put everything including NATO up for disposal. There is, frankly, no way for anyone to trust the US again until the US undergoes steps similar to post-1945 Germany.

This isnt about soft power. Taiwan's location is too important for the US to not intervene in some way.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#175

Post by johanyc »

misja111 wrote: post #141
KK7NIL wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US protected Taiwanese sovereignty for decades before they even had a single semiconductor fab. This idea of "the silicon shield" just shows a complete ignorance of the history of Taiwan and its place in the geopolitical order.

Trump has openly stated that there would be no military retaliation by the US in case of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Only an economic one. And we have seen what that is worth after the Krim was taken. It lasted a few years and then sanctions started getting dropped. So the time of military US protection is behind us.

I believe you mis remembered it. He didn't rule out military intervention.

In an interview reported by Reuters, he said he’d impose 150%–200% tariffs if China “went into Taiwan,” and when asked about using military force against a blockade he said it “would not come to that” because Xi “respects me” and knows he’s “crazy.”

https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-he-would-impose-tar...

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#176

Post by maxglute »

Sammi wrote: post #162
contrarian1234 wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right now is an AI goldrush. They can get crazy lucrative investments and lock in amazing deals. In a decade the Chinese tech will catch up and the AI boom will slow down and the Taiwanese will have to coast on what they have. They have to capitalize on this moment as much as they can b/c it's not going to last long. Things are going to get much tougher very soon

You speak like the Chinese catching up with the technology is inevitable. The Chinese aren't behind in semiconductor and airplane technology for lack of trying. They are constantly trying to catch up to a moving goal post. There is an established playbook that the Chinese have used for decades when taking over an industrial sector from other countries. They funnel vast amounts of state funding into it, sell at or bel…

PRC generating as much STEM/skilled talent than OECD combined... that's enough for entire semi supply chain and 2 civil aviation companies.

Aviation is functionally caught up, as in if PRC wants to throw together a narrow or wide body on domestic components short term, they can at scale and service domestic market with less fuel efficiently. The primary reason COMAC uses western components is for faster global certification.

PRC Semi progress beating western analysts of catchup, instead of 10 years to EUV they're looking ~7/8 years. Again global semi supply chain is just a handful of countries with fraction population as PRC. And all western semi players projected to have talent shortage in the 100,000s, so that moving goal post likely going to move slower and slower vs PRC convergence.

Semi easier medium/long term problem since PRC _only_ country projected without semi talent shortage, i.e. current trends and forces point to inevitable convergence and PRC.

Ironically aviation harder problem because exporting outside of PRC market is matter of geopolitics vs pure technical/state capacity.

Looking at trend lines, west simply not capable of staying ahead.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#177

Post by jorvi »

mamonster wrote: post #161
jorvi wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And how are we gonna do that exactly? EU runs on national interests of those footing the bill, mainly France and Germany as the largest net contributors. The top net contributors are countries like Denmark, Sweden, The Netherlands, etc., I'm not sure where you get the idea that France and Germany are. I will say you point out another big problem with the EU: its budget is tiny compared to the member states themselv…

>The top net contributors are countries like Denmark, Sweden, The Netherlands, etc., Not by raw amount of euros no. By % of GDP or per capita maybe.

Per capita yes, which is the only logical way to compare it.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#178

Post by bigbadfeline »

jorvi wrote: post #44
avhception wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany squandered so much money on nonsense, when they could have simply driven the few kilometers over to Eindhoven and bought an ASML machine for "Silicon Saxony". Sure, it would have taken years and years and serious commitment by the government and private sector to make that a successful move. But instead of putting in the hard work with a clear vision for the future, we mostly spend our time whining and wailin…

High-end chips should be more of a EU concerted effort rather than every country for itself. The problem is that unlike Airbus, which (highly inefficiently) can be made in multiple countries, you can't really spread out parts of a fab that way. The most you can do is fab machines + chips + chip packaging. Netherlands already has fab machines and in packaging there isn't a high margin. That leaves chips, and you can b…

> you can't really spread out parts of a fab that way. > That leaves chips, and you can be sure that whoever gets the fabs,

"a fab" or "the fabs"? We are commenting on news about TSMC building fabs in 3 countries across 2 continents, multiple fabs in each - I counted 23 of them here [1].

Surely, the EU can commit to a few fabs and research labs in different countries, semis are equipment and labor intensive, there's work for more than the EU. There's no need to build all of them at once, a clear commitment will suffice.

[1] https://www.tsmc.com/english/aboutTSMC/TSMC_Fabs

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#179

Post by slaw »

jorvi wrote: post #177
mamonster wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The top net contributors are countries like Denmark, Sweden, The Netherlands, etc., Not by raw amount of euros no. By % of GDP or per capita maybe.

Per capita yes, which is the only logical way to compare it.

The only logical way to compare is by amount of money.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#180

Post by [deleted] »

joe_mamba wrote: post #131
whstl wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good point, but gotta remember that people don't buy chips, they buy products. There's plenty of stuff to be produced. From components to PCBs to casing to packaging. China didn't become the manufacturing giant it is because of a single product, they did because the whole supply chain was moving there while the EU and US were only concerned about higher-margin products and activities. I'm sure some town in Italy wish…

>I'm sure some town in Italy wishes it was still the world's #1 diode manufacturer or something. Except that's exactly what happened. EU semi fabs like the ones in Italy mostly make diodes, mosfets, microcontrollers and other such low margin products. Nobody here tapes out GPUs and CPUs, that's all Korea, Taiwan and US.

[deleted]
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