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Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

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Re: Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

#171

Post by jacquesm »

kasey_junk wrote: post #164
jacquesm wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can actually, but the volumes are too low to absorb a massive sell-off of US treasury paper.

It’s not just that the market isn’t deep enough. The current incarnation of EU bonds are not secured the same way typical sovereign bonds are. And they sort of can’t be without the member states ceding more sovereignty. We’ll see if the EU member countries can approve a framework for bonds that are closer to a treasury in its guarantees, I’m skeptical but it could happen, but they don’t exist right now.

As they say: under enough pressure everything becomes a liquid. The current situation is in many ways unprecedented and I think that Trump may well be the antagonist that forces the EU to band together more effectively.

Re: Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

#172

Post by kavalg »

coredev_ wrote: post #39
kavalg wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But I am having a hard time identifying this union/nation. Unfortunately, it feels like the EU is set on a downward trajectory.

I'm a bit baffled by this - are you saying that you can't identify a single market in the whole world that is worth to invest in & stable except US? Also I don't see that EU as a whole is on a downward trajectory, there are a lot of areas that are super strong, one being the defence industry. US on the other hand - who wants to invest in or trade with them when they treat the rest of the world (including close friend…

In the context of sovereign debt, yes. I don't even feel that that the US is stable enough. Of course, everyone sees the world through their own eyes, but in my world, the EU has been going down post-covid in terms of e.g. purchasing power, industrial base, business opportunities for the small/medium business. The defense industry is strong, because it is currently needed and funded, but how long can that be sustained?

Re: Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

#173

Post by jacquesm »

kasey_junk wrote: post #165
jacquesm wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, they should. The interesting bit here is that the USA has been an endless sink for funds simply because they have been spending way above their means, and that this worked in large part because there was trust. Breaking that trust is super risky from a US point of view. Europe has been more conservative in their spending and as a result needs a place to park their excesses, because there are not enough ways to s…

It’s also part of the reserve currency dynamics. It’s not clear how the modern bond market will work in a post dollar world, we frankly don’t have an example. It’s entirely possible that the EU can overcome the political struggles that a true EU bond brings about (I’d love to see how a bond would work that both the Hungarian and Danish and French and Greek governments would back long term) but it seems just as likely…

Indeed, this is both complex and risky, but it is fairly clear by now that we need to do something concrete rather than just yak about it. Hungary is indeed a problem (and has been for a long time) but I'm actually impressed with the restraint shown by the bloc to let Hungarians deal with this on their own terms as long as it does not stop the EU from handling foreign policy.

The trade imbalance angle is exactly the one that I think they will pursue because that is the one that can be made to work numerically, but great care should be taken to ensure that Germany does not end up with a disproportional amount of power. In a way the EU being fragmented but forced to work together is the best recipe for a fair outcome though the larger entities will probably always have some minor advantage in such constructs.

Re: Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

#174

Post by magicalhippo »

onraglanroad wrote: post #88
christkv wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have no idea how that would destroy the Norwegian State. They are addicted to money from that fund. A collapse in it's value would have direct impact on the finances of the state. Nearly 1/4 of the budget is funded from that found a year.

That's got to be a tiny amount relative to the fund size though. Anyway, how would that destroy the fund? They'd be selling it not giving it away.

> That's got to be a tiny amount relative to the fund size though.

Current total market value is about $2136B, of which ~$912B is invested in the US[1].

[1]: https://www.nbim.no/en/investments/the-funds-value/ (see map at bottom for regional figures)

Re: Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

#176

Post by onraglanroad »

magicalhippo wrote: post #174
onraglanroad wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's got to be a tiny amount relative to the fund size though. Anyway, how would that destroy the fund? They'd be selling it not giving it away.

> That's got to be a tiny amount relative to the fund size though. Current total market value is about $2136B, of which ~$912B is invested in the US[1]. [1]: https://www.nbim.no/en/investments/the-funds-value/ (see map at bottom for regional figures)

No, I mean the 25% of the Norway Government Budget must be a tiny amount of the fund.

Re: Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

#177

Post by hulitu »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #161
toomuchtodo wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are arguing as if nothing material in the US has changed while at the same time arguing “be more polite towards my ignorance|avoidance of the situation.” It comes across as arguing in bad faith. The US can no longer be trusted based on the actions of this administration. Other countries are pragmatically and reasonably adjusting accordingly, very publicly. There are other options besides the US from an economic,…

Citation: Europe is learning that a ‘deal’ with Trump doesn’t exist - https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/21/business/trump-davos-greenlan... - January 21st, 2026

Europe isn't learning anything. Europe is dreaming to be a great empire, while licking the butt of another great empire.

Re: Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

#178

Post by gambiting »

hulitu wrote: post #177
toomuchtodo wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Citation: Europe is learning that a ‘deal’ with Trump doesn’t exist - https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/21/business/trump-davos-greenlan... - January 21st, 2026

Europe isn't learning anything. Europe is dreaming to be a great empire, while licking the butt of another great empire.

...what? That literally makes no sense. "Europe" is not a country. "Europe" does not dream of being an empire, because it has no cohesive governing body or even identity as a whole - maybe France or UK dream of being empires but collectively? Does Slovakia or Portugal dream of being empires?

That is such a naively simplistic view of how the world works it reads like it's straight from a Daily Mail or Fox News headline, which always say "Europe does X" - like, who is Europe? Are they in the room with us now?

"Europe is learning" should say - (some) European states are learning, and they are learning that you cannot negotiate with convicted criminals and fascists - they will betray you on a whim because they do not answer to anyone, not even themselves.

Re: Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

#179

Post by magicalhippo »

onraglanroad wrote: post #176
magicalhippo wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's got to be a tiny amount relative to the fund size though. Current total market value is about $2136B, of which ~$912B is invested in the US[1]. [1]: https://www.nbim.no/en/investments/the-funds-value/ (see map at bottom for regional figures)

No, I mean the 25% of the Norway Government Budget must be a tiny amount of the fund.

The politicians have set a self-imposed limit[1] on how much they can use per year. It's currently 3% of the funds value, to ensure we don't need to reign in too much during hard times[2].

However politicians have tried to use less, for 2026 they plan[3] to use 452B NOK which is roughly 2.13%.

However as OP points out, the total budget is around 2100B NOK, so the oil money pays for roughly a quarter. And that's becoming a bit of a problem in my view as well.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_budgetary_rule

[2]: https://www.regjeringen.no/no/tema/okonomi-og-budsjett/norsk...

[2]: https://www.regjeringen.no/no/statsbudsjett/2026/statsbudsje...

Re: Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

#180

Post by epgui »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #116
toomuchtodo wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Canada will not invade allies and will adhere to the rule of law. Their forward looking economics are more favorable as they strengthen ties with China and Europe. By decoupling from the US, their economic risk declines, and their sovereign debt risk is downstream of that.

Under current conditions, though, they may be invaded and/or annexed. That's a risk.

This has nothing to do with Canada's political stability.
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