Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling • Hacker News Board

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#171

Post by pixl97 » Mon, Jan 19, 2026, 2:02 AM UTC

kelnos wrote: post #149

smeej wrote: post #127

> The irony of prediction markets is that they are supposed to be a more trustworthy way of gleaning the future than internet clickbait and half-baked punditry, but they risk shredding whatever shared trust we still have left. The suspiciously well-timed bets that one Polymarket user placed right before the capture of Nicolás Maduro may have been just a stroke of phenomenal luck that netted a roughly $400,000 payout.…

> I'm trying to understand what the criticism is here, because the example seems to support the point that these are meant to be a way of learning the future, not oppose it. Indeed. Insider trading is a feature of prediction markets, not a bug. There are two kinds of people who participate in prediction markets: 1. People who have insider information, or at least more sophisticated predictive capability than your ave…

>1. People who have insider information,

I mean, most stock trading prevents insider trading, unless of course you're a in congress.

Seemingly regulators consider this a bug in every other market type, but suddenly this gambling market allows it?

> breathless anxiety about this

All fun and games until people start dying from it.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#172

Post by lovich » Mon, Jan 19, 2026, 2:05 AM UTC

Imustaskforhelp wrote: post #162

lovich wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve used it. There’s no functional difference in how markets work when 99% of wealth is owned by a handful of kings vs 99% of wealth being owned by a handful of oligarchs.

I don't really think so. You just swapped the term king to Oligarchs. In fact the Oligarchs are even worse because people think that they have freedom when they might not in fact have such freedom in the first place.

I swapped “kings” plural for “oligarchs” plural

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#173

Post by ChadNauseam » Mon, Jan 19, 2026, 2:11 AM UTC

mcintyre1994 wrote: post #132

cortesoft wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The argument is not that you should bet on prediction markets, the argument is that you should use the odds from the market to make decisions about the future.

But they don’t work without someone making the argument that some non-insiders should bet on them right? Because the insiders aren’t going to bother moving the market for us if there’s nobody to take money off.

The traditional way to square that circle is to say that someone who's interested in the answer should subsidize the market. Essentially they provide liquidity to the market which essentially pays people with accurate information to bet. Some work has been done to figure our effective ways of doing that. In practice, it seems like gamblers often provide enough liquidity that this is not needed

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#174

Post by csomar » Mon, Jan 19, 2026, 2:20 AM UTC

kelnos wrote: post #149

smeej wrote: post #127

> The irony of prediction markets is that they are supposed to be a more trustworthy way of gleaning the future than internet clickbait and half-baked punditry, but they risk shredding whatever shared trust we still have left. The suspiciously well-timed bets that one Polymarket user placed right before the capture of Nicolás Maduro may have been just a stroke of phenomenal luck that netted a roughly $400,000 payout.…

> I'm trying to understand what the criticism is here, because the example seems to support the point that these are meant to be a way of learning the future, not oppose it. Indeed. Insider trading is a feature of prediction markets, not a bug. There are two kinds of people who participate in prediction markets: 1. People who have insider information, or at least more sophisticated predictive capability than your ave…

Kalshi and Polymarket have a billion dollar of open interest between them (though velocity here matters too and volume is not very useful). The important thing is they are growing fast. Which means it might become big-potatoes very soon.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#175

Post by kbos87 » Mon, Jan 19, 2026, 2:21 AM UTC

echoangle wrote: post #137

gpm wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the prediction market is for a non-trivial amount, it's likely someone is going to kill you in exchange for the money the prediction market offered them . The prediction market isn't acting as a prophet here, it's acting as a plausibly deniable murder for hire service and you are its victim. The people "betting against" you dying just paid to have you killed.

Yes, OOP might have chosen a suboptimal example here. But for general newsworthy events, people aren’t going to be in positions to manually make them happen. And no person in a position to start a war would do it to affect a Polymarket bet.

...but many people in positions where they can start a war or cause some other highly visible event of any sort probably will start turning to Polymarket to make money in the course of their work

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#176

Post by csomar » Mon, Jan 19, 2026, 2:22 AM UTC

dghlsakjg wrote: post #133

mcintyre1994 wrote: post #129

I don’t really understand the argument for prediction markets if you don’t have inside information. The reason they beat other forms of news is because insiders are incentivised to bet, that makes some sense. But surely an investor without insider knowledge will always make less money on a market where they’re trading against insiders than one where they’re not.

You forget that people are not necessarily doing this for rational reasons. Some people do it for for entertainment, some people are gambling addicts, some people think they have a strong grasp or inside knowledge when they don't. It is, at root, a casino. Apply your lens to any casino game, and it shouldn't exist (some very narrow exceptions apply in the casino).

It is not a casino in the sense that in the casino you are better against the house. Polymarket is basically an arbiter with financial infrastructure.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#177

Post by fartfeatures » Mon, Jan 19, 2026, 2:24 AM UTC

kbos87 wrote: post #175

echoangle wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, OOP might have chosen a suboptimal example here. But for general newsworthy events, people aren’t going to be in positions to manually make them happen. And no person in a position to start a war would do it to affect a Polymarket bet.

...but many people in positions where they can start a war or cause some other highly visible event of any sort probably will start turning to Polymarket to make money in the course of their work

Which makes the prediction market more accurate.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#178

Post by Alive-in-2025 » Mon, Jan 19, 2026, 2:27 AM UTC

echoangle wrote: post #137

gpm wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the prediction market is for a non-trivial amount, it's likely someone is going to kill you in exchange for the money the prediction market offered them . The prediction market isn't acting as a prophet here, it's acting as a plausibly deniable murder for hire service and you are its victim. The people "betting against" you dying just paid to have you killed.

Yes, OOP might have chosen a suboptimal example here. But for general newsworthy events, people aren’t going to be in positions to manually make them happen. And no person in a position to start a war would do it to affect a Polymarket bet.

I can see someone in the Trump admin absolutely using a betting market when they can influence the outcome. At the least I'd also bet that someone in the T admin was the person who knew about Maduro being captured.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#179

Post by valkmit » Mon, Jan 19, 2026, 2:35 AM UTC

pixl97 wrote: post #171

kelnos wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm trying to understand what the criticism is here, because the example seems to support the point that these are meant to be a way of learning the future, not oppose it. Indeed. Insider trading is a feature of prediction markets, not a bug. There are two kinds of people who participate in prediction markets: 1. People who have insider information, or at least more sophisticated predictive capability than your ave…

>1. People who have insider information, I mean, most stock trading prevents insider trading, unless of course you're a in congress. Seemingly regulators consider this a bug in every other market type, but suddenly this gambling market allows it? > breathless anxiety about this All fun and games until people start dying from it.

Insider trading in stocks are prohibited but not for the reason most people think. It has nothing to do with someone having an unfair advantage in an informational sense, and everything to do with fiduciary responsibility.

The CEO and executive team has fiduciary responsibility to act in the financial best interest of the shareholders. Your broker too.

If you have insider info (Obtained legally) but no fiduciary responsibility you can act on it. That’s why congress members trading US equities based on decisions they’re privy to is not, from a legal perspective, insider trading. They don’t have a fiduciary responsibility to their constituents

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#180

Post by Alive-in-2025 » Mon, Jan 19, 2026, 2:40 AM UTC

CPLX wrote: post #139

smeej wrote: post #127

> The irony of prediction markets is that they are supposed to be a more trustworthy way of gleaning the future than internet clickbait and half-baked punditry, but they risk shredding whatever shared trust we still have left. The suspiciously well-timed bets that one Polymarket user placed right before the capture of Nicolás Maduro may have been just a stroke of phenomenal luck that netted a roughly $400,000 payout.…

> I'm trying to understand what the criticism is here > If I knew someone wanted me dead, of course I would want a prediction market on it, and if the odds suddenly shifted dramatically in favor of my death No, you definitely would not want that. You don't want to live in the world like this. That's the point. It's fucking horrible and dystopian, people betting on extra-legal invasions of countries, murders, things t…

I think easy gambling over the internet is terrible, tons of young people are getting stuck in it. People get addicted to it throughout history and ruin their lives, vulnerable people get in trouble with huge losses.

But I don't think we should do anything because religion doesn't like it - that's a foolish thing to use to make your crucial choices or world view. A key reason is pretty much every terrible thing ever was excused as requirement of some religion or forever. Separate from the hurtful things in religious books at times, it's too easy for leaders or authorities to somehow justify actions.

Let's instead use a goal of treating each other respectfully, stop hating and killing each other. Yeah, that's all naive stuff, we aren't there, maybe we'll never be there. Still a good goal, treat each other with kindness. And yeah, I'm an optimistic sort.