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Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

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Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#171
post #139

As a heavy user of OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google AI APIs, I’m increasingly tempted to buy a Mac Studio (M3 Ultra or M4 Pro) as a contingency in case the economics of hosted inference change significantly.

There is a reason no one uses Apple for local models. Be careful not to fall for marketing and fanboyism.

Just look at what people are actually using. Don't rely on a few people who tested a few short prompts with short completions.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they arguably treat their suppliers relatively poorly compared to the Gold standard like Costco. I’m not saying you’re wrong but you’re previous paragraph sounding like you were wondering if it was the case vs. here you’re saying it’s known. Is this all true? Do they have a reputation for hammering their suppliers?

Apple dealt exclusively with Chinese labor prices until they were directly threatened by the POTUS. You tell me.

I got a bridge to sell you if you think that Apple is going to bring any of their manufacturing to the US...

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regardless of that, fab industry is based on a short and mid term auction-like planning. If Nvidia pays more, Apple has to match.

> Regardless of that, fab industry is based on a short and mid term auction-like planning Not a system that necessarily works all that well if one player has a short-term ability to vastly outspending all the rest. You can't let all your other customers die just because Nvidia is flush with cash this quarter...

> Not a system that necessarily works all that well if one player has a short-term ability to vastly outspending all the rest.

Well yeah, people were identifying that back when Apple bought out the entirety of the 5nm node for iPhones and e-tchotchkes. It was sorta implicitly assumed that any business that builds better hardware than Apple would boot them out overnight.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apple dealt exclusively with Chinese labor prices until they were directly threatened by the POTUS. You tell me.

I got a bridge to sell you if you think that Apple is going to bring any of their manufacturing to the US...

I've seen the leaked BOMs, I'm not dumb enough to think that Americans can match it.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#178
post #6

Calling Nvidia niche feels a bit wild given their status-quo right now, but from a foundry perspective, it seems true. Apple is the anchor tenant that keeps the lights on across 12 different mature and leading-edge fabs. Nvidia is the high-frequency trader hammering the newest node until the arb closes. Stability usually trades at a discount during a boom, but Wei knows the smartphone replacement cycle is the only pr…

I would also bet significant money that Apple's unique market position will give them the confidence to invest in in-house fabrication before 2030.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#179
post #138
post #6

Calling Nvidia niche feels a bit wild given their status-quo right now, but from a foundry perspective, it seems true. Apple is the anchor tenant that keeps the lights on across 12 different mature and leading-edge fabs. Nvidia is the high-frequency trader hammering the newest node until the arb closes. Stability usually trades at a discount during a boom, but Wei knows the smartphone replacement cycle is the only pr…

So let's say TMSC reciprocated Apple's consistency as a customer by giving them preferential treatment for capacity. It's good business after all. However, everyone knows that good faith reciprocity at that scale is not rewarded. Apple is ruthless. There are probably thousands of untold stories of how hard Apple has hammered it's suppliers over the years. While Apple has good consumer brand loyalty, they arguably tre…

Counter argument is that is NVIDIA friendly to their supply chain? I have to think that maybe they are with their massive margins because they can be - their end buyer is currently willing to absorb costs at no expense. But I don't know, and that will change as their business changes.

Your underlying statement implies that whoever is replacing apple is a better buyer which I don't think is necessarily true.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#180
post #139

As a heavy user of OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google AI APIs, I’m increasingly tempted to buy a Mac Studio (M3 Ultra or M4 Pro) as a contingency in case the economics of hosted inference change significantly.

the thing is GLM 4.7 is easily doing the work Opus was doing for me but to run it fully you'll need a much bigger hardware than a Mac Studio. $10k buys you a lot of API calls from z.ai or Anthropic. It's just not economically viable to run a good model at home.

You can cluster Mac Studios using Thunderbolt connections and enable RDMA for distributed inference. This will be slower than a single node but is still the best bang-for-the-buck wrt. doing inference on very-large-sized models.
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