LLMs are a 400-year-long confidence trick

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Jan 15, 2026, 12:06 AM UTC

latexr wrote: post #70

remus wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point of the article is to paint LLMs as a confidence trick, the keyword being trick. If LLMs do actually deliver very real, tangible benefits then can you say there is really a trick? If a street performer was doing the cup and ball scam, but I actually won and left with more money than I started with then I'd say that's a pretty bad trick! Of course it is a little more nuanced than this and I would agree that s…

> If LLMs do actually deliver very real, tangible benefits then can you say there is really a trick? Yes, yes you can. As I’ve mentioned elsewhere on this thread: > When a con man sells you a cheap watch for an high price, what you get is still useful—a watch that tells the time—but you were also still conned, because what you paid for is not what was advertised. You overpaid because you were tricked about what you w…

Post by ltbarcly3 » Thu, Jan 15, 2026, 2:22 AM UTC

Xss3 wrote: post #13

ltbarcly3 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are the masses. Are you afraid?

Hn commenters are not representative

Post by ltbarcly3 » Thu, Jan 15, 2026, 2:24 AM UTC

qsera wrote: post #100

adrianN wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Intelligence is not magic though. The difference between intelligence and mathematics can plausibly be the same kind of difference between chemistry and intelligence.

There is Intelligence and there is Imitation of Intelligence. LLMs do the latter. Talk to any model about deep subjects. You ll understand what I am saying. After a while it will start going around in circles. FFS ask it to make an original joke, and be amused..

Post by qsera » Thu, Jan 15, 2026, 2:36 AM UTC

ltbarcly3 wrote: post #175

qsera wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is Intelligence and there is Imitation of Intelligence. LLMs do the latter. Talk to any model about deep subjects. You ll understand what I am saying. After a while it will start going around in circles. FFS ask it to make an original joke, and be amused..

If you understood anything about this topic you would know that imitation of intelligence requires intelligence. It's the same thing.

Post by Frieren » Thu, Jan 15, 2026, 7:35 AM UTC

krystofee wrote: post #32

I disagree with the "confidence trick" framing completely. My belief in this tech isn't based on marketing hype or someone telling me it's good – it's based on cold reality of what I'm shipping daily. The productivity gains I'm seeing right now are unprecedented. Even a year ago this wouldn't have been possible, it really feels like an inflection point. I'm seeing legitimate 10x gains because I'm not writing code any…