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Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public

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Re: Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public

#171

Post by alwa »

harmmonica wrote: post #164
sc68cal wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> margins are either good or can soon become good. Their margins are negative and every increase in usage results in more cost. They have a whole leaderboard of people who pay $20 a month and then use $60,000 of compute. https://www.viberank.app

Do you mind giving a bit more details in layman's terms about this assuming the $60k per subscriber isn't hyperbole? Is that the total cost of the latest training run amortized per existing subscriber plus the inference cost to serve that one subscriber? If you tell me to click the link, I did, but backed out because I thought you'd actually be willing to break it down here instead. I could also ask Claude about it I…

It counted up the tokens that users on “unlimited” Max/Pro plans consumed through CC, and calculated what it would cost to buy that number of tokens through the API.

$60K in a month was unusual (and possibly exaggerated); amounts in the $Ks were not. For which people would pay $200 on their Max plan.

Since that bonanza period Anthropic seem to have reined things in, largely through (obnoxiously tight) weekly consumption limits for their subscription plans.

It’s a strange feeling to be talking about this as if it were ancient history, when it was only a few months ago… strange times.

Re: Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public

#173

Post by hvb2 »

theptip wrote: post #50
torginus wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just how much of the market do retail investors control? I thought they were a drop in the bucket. Also, is there a way to know how much of the total volume of shares is being traded now? If I kept hyping my company (successfully), and drove the share price from $10 to $1000, thanks to retail hype, I could 100x the value of my company lets say from $100m to $10B, while the amount of money actually changing hands woul…

Retail is a big deal these days. Used to be sub 10%, now it’s in the 30-40% of daily volume range IIUC. You can easily look up the numbers you are asking for, the TLDR is that the volume in most stocks is high enough that you can’t manipulate it much. If it’s even 2x overpriced then there’s 100m on the table for whoever spots this and shorts, ie enough money that plenty of smart people will be spending effort on mode…

> Retail is a big deal these days. Used to be sub 10%, now it’s in the 30-40% of daily volume range IIUC.

But that isn't relevant? If they trade a lot but own less than 10% of the shares they're still a small piece.

The institutional investors are likely not trading much, things like 401k are all long term investments

Re: Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public

#174

Post by [deleted] »

alwa wrote: post #171
harmmonica wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you mind giving a bit more details in layman's terms about this assuming the $60k per subscriber isn't hyperbole? Is that the total cost of the latest training run amortized per existing subscriber plus the inference cost to serve that one subscriber? If you tell me to click the link, I did, but backed out because I thought you'd actually be willing to break it down here instead. I could also ask Claude about it I…

It counted up the tokens that users on “unlimited” Max/Pro plans consumed through CC, and calculated what it would cost to buy that number of tokens through the API. $60K in a month was unusual (and possibly exaggerated); amounts in the $Ks were not. For which people would pay $200 on their Max plan. Since that bonanza period Anthropic seem to have reined things in, largely through (obnoxiously tight) weekly consumpt…

[deleted]

Re: Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public

#175

Post by 542458 »

sc68cal wrote: post #144
ddp26 wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because of unprofitability? ARR and growth are very high, and margins are either good or can soon become good. Is the claim that coding agents can't be profitable?

> margins are either good or can soon become good. Their margins are negative and every increase in usage results in more cost. They have a whole leaderboard of people who pay $20 a month and then use $60,000 of compute. https://www.viberank.app

That site seems to date from the days before there were real usage limits on Claude Code. Note that none of the submissions are recent. As such, I think it's basically irrelevant - the general observation is that Claude Code will rate limit you long, long before you can pull off the usage depicted so it's unlikely you can be massively net-profit-negative on Claude Code.

Re: Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public

#176

Post by hvb2 »

nextworddev wrote: post #117

interesting HN is so bearish considering most of them spend more on AI daily than any other saas category

Even the best product in the world can come from a company whose own valuation is too high.

Anyone is bearish on Nvidia today if the share price would be at a $10T valuation.

Re: Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public

#178

Post by dkdcio »

parapatelsukh wrote: post #163
dkdcio wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe: > "and in 12 months, we might be in a world where the ai is writing essentially all of the code. But the programmer still needs to specify what are the conditions of what you're doing. What is the overall design decision. How we collaborate with other code that has been written. How do we have some common sense with whether this is a secure design or an insecure design. So as long as there are these small…

[dead]

uh it proves the original comment I responded to is extremely misleading (which is my only point here); CEO did not say 90% of developers would be replaced, at all

Re: Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public

#179

Post by paxys »

HarHarVeryFunny wrote: post #16

It's interesting that Amazon don't appear interested in acquiring Anthropic, which would have seemed like somewhat of a natural fit given that they are already partnered, Anthropic have apparently optimized (or at least adapted) for Trainium, and Amazon don't have their own frontier model. It seems that Amazon are playing this much like Microsoft - seeing themselves are more of a cloud provider, happy to serve anyone…

It's safe to assume that a company like Anthropic has been getting (and rejecting) a steady stream of acquisition offers, including from the likes of Amazon, from the moment they got proninent in the AI space.

Re: Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public

#180

Post by harmmonica »

alwa wrote: post #171
harmmonica wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you mind giving a bit more details in layman's terms about this assuming the $60k per subscriber isn't hyperbole? Is that the total cost of the latest training run amortized per existing subscriber plus the inference cost to serve that one subscriber? If you tell me to click the link, I did, but backed out because I thought you'd actually be willing to break it down here instead. I could also ask Claude about it I…

It counted up the tokens that users on “unlimited” Max/Pro plans consumed through CC, and calculated what it would cost to buy that number of tokens through the API. $60K in a month was unusual (and possibly exaggerated); amounts in the $Ks were not. For which people would pay $200 on their Max plan. Since that bonanza period Anthropic seem to have reined things in, largely through (obnoxiously tight) weekly consumpt…

So they're now putting in aggressive caps and the other two paths they have to address the gap is to drive the/their cost of those tokens way down and/or the user pays many multiples of their current subscription. That's not to say that's odd for any business to expect their costs to decrease substantially and their pricing power to increase, but even if the gap is "only" low thousands to $200 that's...significant. Thanks for the insight.
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