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A new AI winter is coming?

taranis.ie

171–180 of 301 posts

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't understand how the tech works, then. LLMs aren't as good as humans at understanding, but it's not just statistics. The stochastic parrot meme is wrong. The networks create symbolic representations in training, with huge multidimensional correlations between patterns in the data, whether its temporal or semantic. The models "understand" concepts like emotions, text, physics, arbitrary social rules and phenom…

You appear to be a proper alchemist, but you can't support an argument of understanding if there is no definition of understanding that isn't circular. If you want to believe the friendly voice really understands you, we have a word for that, faith. The skeptic sees the interactions with a chatbot as a statistical game that shows how uninteresting (e.g. predictable) humans and our stupid language are. There are usefu…

Understanding is the thing that happens when your neurons coalesce into a network of signaling and processing such that it empowers successful prediction of what happens next. This powers things like extrapolation, filling in missing parts of perceived patterns, temporal projection, and modeling hidden variables.

Understanding is the construction of a valid model. In biological brains, it's a vast parallelized network columns and neuron clusters in coordinated asynchronous operation, orchestrated to ingest millions of data points both internal and external, which result in a complex and sophisticated construct comprising the entirety of our subjective experience.

LLMs don't have the subjective experience module, explicitly. They're able to emulate the bits that are relevant to being good at predicting things, so it's possible that every individual token inference process produces a novel "flash" of subjective experience, but absent the explicit construct and a persistent and coherent self construct, it's not mapping the understanding to the larger context of its understanding of its self in the same way humans do it. The only place where the algorithmic qualities needed for subjective experience reside in LLMs is the test-time process slice, and because the weights themselves are unchanged in relation to any novel understanding which arises, there's no imprint left behind by the sensory stream (text, image, audio, etc.) Absent the imprint mechanism, there's no possibility to perpetuate the construct we think of as conscious experience, so for LLMs, there can never be more than individual flashes of subjectivity, and those would be limited to very low resolution correlations a degree or more of separation away from the direct experience of any sensory inputs, whereas in humans the streams are tightly coupled to processing, update in real-time, and persist through the lifetime of the mind.

The pieces being modeled are the ones that are useful. The utility of consciousness has been underexplored; it's possible that it might be useful in coordination and orchestration of the bits and pieces of "minds" that are needed to operate intelligently over arbitrarily long horizon planning, abstract generalization out of distribution, intuitive leaps between domains that only relate across multiple degrees of separation between abstract principles, and so on. It could be that consciousness will arise as an epiphenomenological outcome from the successful linking together of systems that solve the problems LLMs currently face, and the things which overcome the jagged capabilities differential are the things that make persons out of human minds.

It might also be possible to orchestrate and coordinate those capabilities without bringing a new mind along for the ride, which would be ideal. It's probably very important that we figure out what the case is, and not carelessly summon a tortured soul into existence.

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#172
post #21

This article uses the computational complexity hammer way too hard, discounts huge progress in every field of AI outside of the hot trend of transformers and LLMs. Nobody is saying the future of AI is autoregressive and this article pretty much ignores any of the research that has been posted here around diffusion based text generation or how it can be combined with autoregressive methods… discounts multi-modal model…

> something fundamental has changed that enables a computer to pretty effectively understand natural language. You understand how the tech works right? It's statistics and tokens. The computer understands nothing. Creating "understanding" would be a breakthrough. Edit: I wasn't trying to be a jerk. I sincerely wasn't. I don't "understand" how LLMs "understand" anything. I'd be super pumped to learn that bit. I don't…

"I don't "understand" how LLMs "understand" anything."

Why does the LLM need to understand anything. What today's chatbots have achieved is a software engineering feat. They have taken a stateless token generation machine that has compressed the entire internet's vocabulary to predict the next token and have 'hacked' a whole state management machinery around it. End result is a product that just feels like another human conversing with you and remembering your last birthday.

Engineering will surely get better and while purists can argue that a new research perspective is needed, the current growth trajectory of chatbots, agents and code generation tools will carry the torch forward for years to come.

If you ask me, this new AI winter will thaw in the atmosphere even before it settles on the ground.

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#173
I trully hate how absurdly over-hyped this LLM concept of AI is. However, it can do some cool things. Normally that's the path to PMF. The real problem is the revenue. There is no extant revenue model whatsoever. But there are industries that are described as "a business of pennies" Ex. telephony. Someone may yet eek out a win. But the hype-to-reality conversion will come first.

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#174

This article uses the computational complexity hammer way too hard, discounts huge progress in every field of AI outside of the hot trend of transformers and LLMs. Nobody is saying the future of AI is autoregressive and this article pretty much ignores any of the research that has been posted here around diffusion based text generation or how it can be combined with autoregressive methods… discounts multi-modal model…

Technologically, I believe that you're right. On the other hands, the previous AI winters happened despite novel, useful technologies, some of which proved extremely useful and actually changed the world of software. They happened because of overhype, then investor moving on to the next opportunity.

Here, the investors are investing in LLMs. Not in AlphaFold, AlphaGo, neurosymbolic, focus learning, etc. If (when) LLMs prove insufficient to the insane level of hype and if (when) experience shows that there is only so much money that you can make with LLMs, it's possible that the money will move on to other types of AI, but there are chances that it will actually go to something entirely different, perhaps quantum, leaving AI in winter.

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#175
I think its worth discounting against the failure rates of humans also.

> Depending on the context, and how picky you need to be about recognizing good or bad output, this might be anywhere from a 60% to a 95% success rate, with the remaining 5%-40% being bad results. This just isn't good enough for most practical purposes

This seems to suggest that humans are 100%. I'd be surprised if i was anywhere close to that after 10 years of programming professionally

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#176
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no difference between "hallucination" and "soberness", it's just a database you can't trust. The response to your query might not be what you needed, similar to interacting with an RDBMS and mistyping a table name and getting data from another table or misremembering which tables exist and getting an error. We would not call such faults "hallucinations", and shouldn't when the database is a pile of eldritch…

No it's absolutely not. One of these is a generative stochastic process that has no guarantee at all that it will produce correct data, and in fact you can make the OPPOSITE guarantee, you are guaranteed to sometimes get incorrect data. The other is a deterministic process of data access. I could perhaps only agree with you in the sense that such faults are not uniquely hallucinatory, all outputs from an LLM are.

I don't agree with these theoretical boundaries you provide. Any database can appear to lack in determinism, because data might get deleted, corrupted or mutated. Hardware and software involved might fail intermittently.

The illusion of determinism in RDBMS systems is just that, an illusion. The reason why I used the examples of failures in interacting with such systems that I did is that most experienced developers are familiar with those situations and can relate to them, while the probability for the reader to having experienced a truer apparent indeterminism is lower.

LLM:s can provide an illusion of determinism as well, some are quite capable of repeating themselves, e.g. overfitting, intentional or otherwise.

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#177
post #86
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no difference between "hallucination" and "soberness", it's just a database you can't trust. The response to your query might not be what you needed, similar to interacting with an RDBMS and mistyping a table name and getting data from another table or misremembering which tables exist and getting an error. We would not call such faults "hallucinations", and shouldn't when the database is a pile of eldritch…

This seems unnecessarily pedantic. We know how the system works, we just use "hallucination" colloquially when the system produces wrong output.

Other people do not, hence the danger and the responsibility of not giving them the wrong impression of what they're dealing with.

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#178

As someone who is an expert in the area, everything in this article is misleading nonsense, failing at even the most basic CS101 principles. The level of confusion here is astounding. > People were saying that this meant that the AI winter was over The last AI winter was over 20 years ago. Transformers came during an AI boom. > First time around, AI was largely symbolic Neural networks were already hot and the state…

> This isn't what Turing-completeness is. And by definition all practical computing is not a Turing Machine, simply because TMs require an infinite tape.

I think you are too triggered and entitled in your nit-picking. Its obvious in potentially limited universe infinite tape can't exists, but for practical purpose in CS, turing-completeness means expressiveness of logic to emulate TM regardless of tape size.

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#179
post #31

LLMs are an amazing advancement. The tech side of things is very impressive. Credit where credit is due. Where the current wave all falls apart is on the financials. None of that makes any sense and there’s no obvious path forward. Folks say handwavy things like “oh they’ll just sell ads” but even a cursory analysis shows that math doesn’t ad up relative to the sums of money being invested at the moment. Tech wise I’…

>None of that makes any sense and there’s no obvious path forward.

The top end models with their high compute requirements probably don't but there is value in lower end models for sure.

After all, its the AWS approach. Most of AWS services is stuff you can easily get for cheaper if you just rent an EC2 and set it up yourself. But because AWS offers very simple setup, companies don't mind paying for it.

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#180
> AI has failed. >The rumor mill has it that about 95% of generative AI projects in the corporate world are failures.

AI tooling has only just barely reached the point where enterprise CRUD developers can start thinking about. Langchain only reached v1.0.0 in the last 60 days (Q4 2025); OpenAI effectively announced support for MCP in Q2 2025. The spec didn't even approach maturity until Q4 of 2024. Heck most LLMs didn't have support for tools in 2024.

In 2-3 years a lot of these libraries will be part way through their roadmap towards v2.0.0 to fix many of the pain points and fleshing out QOL improvements, and standard patterns evolved for integrating different workflows. Consumer streaming of audio and video on the web was a disaster of a mess until around ~2009 despite browsers having plugins for it going back over a decade. LLMs continue to improve at a rapid rate, but tooling matures more slowly.

Of course previous experiments failed or were abandoned; the technology has been moving faster than the average CRUD developer can implement features. A lot of "cutting edge" technology we put into our product in 2023 are now standard features for the free tier of market leaders like ChatGPT etc. Why bother maintaining a custom fork of 2023-era (effectively stone age) technology when free tier APIs do it better in 2025? MCP might not be the be-all, end-all, but at least it is a standard interface that's at least maintainable in a way that developers of mature software can begin conceiving of integrating it into their product as a permanent feature, rather than a curiosity MVP at the behest of a non technical exec.

A lot of AI-adjacent libraries we've been using finally hit v1.0.0 this year, or creeping close to it; providing stable interfaces for maintainable software. It's time to hit the reset button on "X% of internal AI initiatives failed"

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