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SoftBank sells its entire stake in Nvidia

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Re: SoftBank sells its entire stake in Nvidia

#171

Makes no sense to sell their entire position on a key infrastructure player, if you’re going all in on ai. That’s very odd.

It makes sense when you know the semi industry has always been cyclical and this insane level of spending can't be fueled on debt and VC cash forever. Masayoshison is out and now your 401ks are holding the bag, he'll get one last cashout when Open"AI" IPOs too with his winnings.

Re: SoftBank sells its entire stake in Nvidia

#172
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would have thought that the OpenAI bet is way more risky, because if someone comes along with a better model it could really hurt OpenAI. NVIDIA seems harder to dethrone imo.

They probably know more than us. Such as alternative chips or that the Chinese will go in-house sooner than we think. Nvidia’s moat is not as permanent as people think.

Softbank is the example that you could use against the conspiracy theorists.

They may know more, but not that much more.

> SoftBank has been a repeat investor in Nvidia. It sold off its investment before the AI boom took off and then bought the chipmaker's shares again before divesting in October to double down on its biggest investment bet, OpenAI.

Re: SoftBank sells its entire stake in Nvidia

#174
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They probably know more than us. Such as alternative chips or that the Chinese will go in-house sooner than we think. Nvidia’s moat is not as permanent as people think.

Softbank has literally done this before. Several years ago, Softbank sold it's Nvidia stake and later regretted it to such an extent that Masayoshi Son expressed his feelings by crying. They're only selling Nvidia stock now to fulfill a prior giant cash commitment to OpenAI. Also, Nvidia is positioned to own a sizeable chunk of OpenAI.

I was just thinking that they must be selling because they need the cash...

Re: SoftBank sells its entire stake in Nvidia

#175
post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both DuckDuckGo and Kagi are, purely focused on result quality in 2025 far better than Google currently, but that does not matter if one has no need beyond the most basic results. And much of the MS Office suite is actually a worse copy of another product, merely copied and forced via network effect. There are more than enough far better alternatives to e.g. Teams and OneDrive. The latter even makes Excel far less re…

> Both DuckDuckGo and Kagi are, purely focused on result quality in 2025 far better than Google currently I wish this was true

You don't have to take my word for it. Open the three next to each other, type in a search query. Only one will provide part of the results as a wildly inaccurate "overview" that somehow manages to link to sources telling you the opposite or contradicts itself inside the text box, which can also not be deactivated. Those are the results you get from Google and that alone makes quality worse, pure and simple.

More subjectively, but if you want to ignore the "AI overview" and consider that not results (then why are they on my results page?!), just look for a specific, slightly older video on Youtube, a site Alphabet themselves run. You can provide the exact title down to the letter and are in many instances going to struggle to find it with Youtube search or Googles Video Search, even when wrapping in ", etc. Kagi and DDGs video search tabs meanwhile yield the desired results. Again, this doesn't mean they are amazing or massively far ahead as Google was able to reliably provide such results in the past. It just means that Google Search has regressed, yet users stuck with it because, as I've been saying, quality (or lack thereof) has a hard time overcoming brand strength.

Re: SoftBank sells its entire stake in Nvidia

#176
post #16

Note the first line: > SoftBank said Tuesday it has sold its entire stake in U.S. chipmaker Nvidia for $5.83 billion as the Japanese giant looks to capitalize its “all in” bet on ChatGPT maker OpenAI. They are switching gears, not exiting, folks.

Selling the _entire_ stake sounds really aggressive though? Is that normal? Even if you're all-in on OpenAI, does it not make financial sense to have _some_ stake in Nvidia considering they are the only ones with an actual moat? Unless there are CUDA alternative breakthroughs we will hear about in the next few days.

If you believe the AI bubble will pop in the same way as the dotcom bubble and feel you can pick winners it makes sense. It would be like selling cisco stock for google. You can still invest in cisco later if you believe they'll grow but you might expect a stagnant period and definitely expect a drop as they don't have as much demand. NVidia is a safe bet to continue exisitng and being profitable but by being so central to the market you could almost guarantee a large drop in stock price while other companies are a gamble.

Re: SoftBank sells its entire stake in Nvidia

#177

Good point to cash out in my opinion. Extremely likely you can buy NVDA back cheaper in the future.

$5.83B is too large to be a round trip. This is clearly an exit.

It's about 0.1% of the company.

Not nothing, for sure, but low enough that you can buy it back in a couple of months.

Re: SoftBank sells its entire stake in Nvidia

#178

Note the first line: > SoftBank said Tuesday it has sold its entire stake in U.S. chipmaker Nvidia for $5.83 billion as the Japanese giant looks to capitalize its “all in” bet on ChatGPT maker OpenAI. They are switching gears, not exiting, folks.

Also relevant:

> “This should not be seen, in our view, as a cautious or negative stance on Nvidia, but rather in the context of SoftBank needing at least $30.5bn of capital for investments in the Oct-Dec quarter, including $22.5bn for OpenAI and $6.5bn for Ampere

> That amounts to “more in a single quarter than it has invested in aggregate over the two prior years combined,” Bulk said.

> … Following the recapitalization and SoftBank’s $22.5 billion investment into the ChatGPT maker, the Japanese firm’s 4% ownership of OpenAI will increase to 11%.

It sounds like Nvidia was played out for them and they’re aggressively trying to get in on OpenAI so they can exit sometime after retail investors get in

Re: SoftBank sells its entire stake in Nvidia

#179
post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They don't see upside in Nvidia clearly or they wouldn't have completely sold out. If they don't think the risk/reward is worth it why should anyone else? Eventually you'll run out of greater fools.

Yes because Softbank never makes mistakes clearly whatever they are doing is optimal.

So are you going to buy Softbank's shares? You are running out of greater fools at these bubble prices.

Re: SoftBank sells its entire stake in Nvidia

#180
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would have thought that the OpenAI bet is way more risky, because if someone comes along with a better model it could really hurt OpenAI. NVIDIA seems harder to dethrone imo.

They probably know more than us. Such as alternative chips or that the Chinese will go in-house sooner than we think. Nvidia’s moat is not as permanent as people think.

Does OpenAI even have a moat?
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