171–180 of 352 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Selling puts is not a short at all
It is commonly referred to as a ‘short position’, though it is not ‘shorting the stock’. Equally, purchasing calls* is referred to as a ‘long position’ (as is holding the equity). edit: smallmancontrov below pointed out that I wrote 'purchasing puts' was long, when I meant to write 'purchasing calls'
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Graph looks like it's going up to me. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N
I'm sure the Fed chart is accurately measuring what it's measuring but when I was a kid in Southern California it was normal to buy a house and raise kids on a single teacher or construction worker salary. That has become nearly impossible over the past couple decades. Many others have seen similar changes in their own areas and I don't think they're being crazy when they say it has gotten much harder to finance a no…
Hasn’t he been incorrectly predicting massive crashes every few years ever since he was right that one time? How many bad predictions does he need to make before people stop caring what he has to say?
Just because something is expensive doesn’t mean you should short it via puts as Burry had done. Both Palantir and Nvidia have high IVs. You’re paying for that. You’re much better off looking for cheaper puts on securities with enough correlation. Since Volmageddon and pandemic craze, deep OTM options have been scalped to death. Rarely good value. Nvidia also didn’t report earnings yet which means you’re paying for t…
Can someone explain why puts make sense over shorting? For example, I'm betting against 5 quantum computing companies with short positions. I considered adding puts to the position, but it didn't make sense based on 2 reasons: High bid ask spread, and if it's a fraudulent company/otherwise worth betting against, the volatility will be high, so you option costs too much compared to the upside; the amount it has to dro…
Leverage, margin risk and stock-borrow risk. (The last refers to the folks who lent you the shares recalling them inconveniently.)
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Can someone explain why puts make sense over shorting? For example, I'm betting against 5 quantum computing companies with short positions. I considered adding puts to the position, but it didn't make sense based on 2 reasons: High bid ask spread, and if it's a fraudulent company/otherwise worth betting against, the volatility will be high, so you option costs too much compared to the upside; the amount it has to dro…
With a put, you can only lose what the put is worth. With shorting, you can in theory have infinite loses.
This risk can be hedged with futures and options.
The problem with these kinds of bets is the Fed Put. That's the invisible force levitating stocks. I don't really see that changing unless/until the country genuinely enters a debt or currency crisis. The path is unsustainable, but they'll keep it going as long as they possibly can.
This is an argument against a market wide short bet. The Fed could raise the market while Nvidia still loses its premium.
The larger risk is political proximity, particularly with Palantir.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Graph looks like it's going up to me. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N
I'm sure the Fed chart is accurately measuring what it's measuring but when I was a kid in Southern California it was normal to buy a house and raise kids on a single teacher or construction worker salary. That has become nearly impossible over the past couple decades. Many others have seen similar changes in their own areas and I don't think they're being crazy when they say it has gotten much harder to finance a no…
The disconnect is that CPI consistently significantly underestimates inflation as experienced by real people.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Graph looks like it's going up to me. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N
I'm sure the Fed chart is accurately measuring what it's measuring but when I was a kid in Southern California it was normal to buy a house and raise kids on a single teacher or construction worker salary. That has become nearly impossible over the past couple decades. Many others have seen similar changes in their own areas and I don't think they're being crazy when they say it has gotten much harder to finance a no…
Also, most US households are homeowners, which means housing prices going up increases their (imputed) income.
> Is that chart controlling for number of incomes and hours worked?
Why should it? It's bad practice to control for random things - that gets you collider bias.
But see:
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm sure the Fed chart is accurately measuring what it's measuring but when I was a kid in Southern California it was normal to buy a house and raise kids on a single teacher or construction worker salary. That has become nearly impossible over the past couple decades. Many others have seen similar changes in their own areas and I don't think they're being crazy when they say it has gotten much harder to finance a no…
> I don't know what the disconnect is with that chart and people's observations. The disconnect is that CPI consistently significantly underestimates inflation as experienced by real people.
You may be thinking of Shadowstats, which is run by a crank who just takes the official numbers and adds a number he made up to them.
I don't know why cranks always think inflation is secretly higher. Deflation is a lot worse than inflation, so if you're a doomer, believing in deflation would be more effective.
1.1BN notional probably. not premium. people need basic options education..