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The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2025

nobelprize.org

171–180 of 217 posts

Re: The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2025

#171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Technology advances rapidly and affects us all, with new products and production methods replacing old ones in a never-ending cycle. This is the basis for sustained economic growth since the end of the 19th century... Am I missing something? How can they assert that the current trajectory of economic growth won't end in stagnation, like every other growth spurt throughout history? Sure, the economic growth of the l…

> How can they assert that the current trajectory of economic growth won't end in stagnation, like every other growth spurt throughout history? Straw man. Nobody argues this.

> production methods replacing old ones in a never-ending cycle

> sustained economic growth

Is it really such an unreasonable reading?

Re: The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2025

#172
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The west didn't get rich from colonizing the world. It got rich domestically through industrialism. Then the newly rich countries went on to colonize the world, because now they could. If and how much the colonies made them even richer is debatable, but it was probably a net cost on average. This is one of several insights counter to "common sense" that economists have figured out.

> If and how much the colonies made them even richer is debatable, but it was probably a net cost on average. This is one of several insights counter to "common sense" that economists have figured out. I haven't heard this before, do you have sources where I could learn more?

of course he doesn't because he just made it up.

he's probably grasping to "research" from before the 30s, if even that, expect to ignore elites and focus on average country gdp nonsense.

Re: The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2025

#173

Economist here… An unexpected (to me!) prize but definitely a good one. What’s notable is that mokyr’s research is very, very accessible to a layman. You can read his books and understand them nearly perfectly without needing substantial technical background. (Of course there’s a huge existing literature in economics and history he’s engaging with which you won’t know, but I’m not an economic historian either so a lo…

No one in the economics profession cares. Another contradiction by a member of the economics profession. It seems to me they care very much. By linking the prize to Alfred Nobel’s name (and to the Nobel institutions), the Riksbank ensured the prize would immediately carry great symbolic prestige. The Nobel brand was already well established internationally, so adopting the name helped the economics prize gain recogni…

I mean, i hear people call the Turing prize the "nobel" of computer science, and the fields medal the nobel of math. Sports that arent in the olympics usually have some competition people refer to as the "olympics" of that sport.

Who really cares, its the top prize in the field, that is all that matters.

Re: The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2025

#174
post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Physics can test those hypotheses under controlled conditions I genuinely have no idea why so many commenters on HN will spout nonsense based on high school curriculum with the confidence of a PhD when it comes to economics, but won’t embarrass themselves in other fields. Yes, economics—particularly microeconomics—is constantly subject to experimentation. Macroeconomics is closer to astronomy, in that models are de…

That comparison collapses instantly. Physics has invariants...Economics does not. You can’t rerun the economy under controlled conditions, so “experiments” are mostly natural or quasi experiments...statistical patchwork with fragile assumptions. Macroeconomics isn’t like astronomy :-) Stars don’t change behavior when you model them. Economies do. There are no stable primitives, no conservation laws, just shifting beh…

> You can’t rerun the economy under controlled conditions, so “experiments” are mostly natural or quasi experiments

...you can't rerun the universe under controlled experiments. That's the whole point of the "controlled" part. It's an artificially isolated environment designed to model a specific phenomenon.

If you want examples of thoroughly experimental economic disciplines, look to auction, bargaining and game theory.

> Macroeconomics isn’t like astronomy :-) Stars don’t change behavior when you model them. Economies do

Stars don't change, but the ways we look at them do. This sort of endogeneity in data collection and research methods is a constant source of noise and errors in the physical sciences.

You're correct in that it's much more pronounced in economics, since humans are agents. That puts boundaries on how much one can predict. But that doesn't make it unknowable through the scientific method.

> DSGE models are equilibrium sandcastles calibrated to past data. In physics that’s failure while in macro it’s tenure

I'm not going to defend DSGE any more than I will string theory. (I know a lot more about the former to be able to properly critique it than I do the latter.)

> Economics is interesting and sometimes useful but calling it an experimental science is self-flattery

I'm not an economist. But I apparently know more economics than a lot of people who make confident statements on this board about the field.

Several fields of economics are rigorously empirical. Others are strictly observational. And others are total nonsense. The fill of nonsense is higher than other fields, but that's mostly due to the relevance of the work. If the rise and fall of nations rode on the spectral pattern of Sagittarius A*, you'd probably have a lot of nonsense work around that, too.

Re: The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2025

#175

That's a tiny article, but it does contain an interesting passage: "for having identified the prerequisites for sustained growth through technological progress" which is the core of the reason the prize was awarded. I find it interesting to see technological progress so tightly coupled to sustained growth and I wonder if the implication is that growth will stop when technological progress stagnates. Is there any proo…

Isn't that almost a tautology? Technological progress is often defined as something that increases efficiency. It would be shocking if they weren't connected.

Re: The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2025

#176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How can they assert that the current trajectory of economic growth won't end in stagnation, like every other growth spurt throughout history? Straw man. Nobody argues this.

> production methods replacing old ones in a never-ending cycle > sustained economic growth Is it really such an unreasonable reading?

> Is it really such an unreasonable reading?

It's reasonable but unnecessarily reductive. Particulalry when TFA is linked above.

Re: The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2025

#177
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The west didn't get rich from colonizing the world. It got rich domestically through industrialism. Then the newly rich countries went on to colonize the world, because now they could. If and how much the colonies made them even richer is debatable, but it was probably a net cost on average. This is one of several insights counter to "common sense" that economists have figured out.

> If and how much the colonies made them even richer is debatable, but it was probably a net cost on average. This is one of several insights counter to "common sense" that economists have figured out. I haven't heard this before, do you have sources where I could learn more?

Acemoglu (last year's prize) has some.

Circumstancial evidence includes:

1. Having natural resources is often bad for development: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse

2. Scotland is in the UK because it tried to do colonialism, bankrupted itself and had to sell itself to England.

2. Ireland and Finland are doing as well as any other European country but never colonized anyone and were themselves colonized.

Colonialism is basically just a distracting game countries played before economic growth was invented.

Re: The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2025

#178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Innovation is such that efficiency increase requires fewer resources and land. Population growth is stagnating and will peak in less than 100 years. Neo-Malthusianism is as bunk as Malthusianism was

> Innovation is such that efficiency increase requires fewer resources and land. ...to produce the same output. Growth requires greater output though. Just look at the timeline of energy consumption [0]. Either you're wrong and innovation requires more resources, or you're right and there's no direct relation between innovation and overall resource usage. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-consumption

GDP technically does not require greater output, it just requires more frequent trading.

Re: The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2025

#179
post #31
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Predictable...but are those aholes wrong...? :-) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44013692 Economics violates Popper demarcation criterion. Economic theories can't be falsified because you can't run controlled experiments on economies, rewind history, or isolate variables. When models fail, economists adjust assumptions ... Unfalsifiable = Unscientific.

Neither are litterature and peace.

Or astrophysics (not a Nobel prize but obviously a real science despite being non-replicable).

Re: The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2025

#180
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is completely false. The opposite is true. Economics had drastically improved reproduction over decades.

Please provide some proof that neoclassical economics has done this.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32874648/ -- "they expect replication rates to differ between fields, with the highest replication rate in economics (average survey response 58%), and the lowest in psychology and in education (average survey response of 42% for both fields). "

https://replicationnetwork.com/2021/01/06/reed-the-state-of-... -- "indeed, there has been an increase in the number of replications over time. "

https://www.banque-france.fr/en/publications-and-statistics/... -- "First, we find a moderate replication success, in spite of a data availability policy."

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