Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

bloomberg.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

171–180 of 321 posts

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#171

Post by ifwinterco »

themafia wrote: post #89
sbierwagen wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also a pg essay from 2010: https://www.paulgraham.com/yahoo.html >By 1998, Yahoo was the beneficiary of a de facto Ponzi scheme. Investors were excited about the Internet. One reason they were excited was Yahoo's revenue growth. So they invested in new Internet startups. The startups then used the money to buy ads on Yahoo to get traffic. Which caused yet more revenue growth for Yahoo, and further convinced investors…

That's not how Ponzi schemes work. Yahoo had a defacto _monopoly_ and the market had bad discovery leading to bad price information. There was no point at which the internet was /not/ worth investing in and everyone who had experience with it knew that. The real problem seemed to be that you can only put so much money into pets.com before it becomes stupid. You had more short term investment capital than could be _ef…

Same issue with LLMs - there probably is real value there, but investors have rammed 10 years' worth of investment into the market in 10 months.

That means: 1) Late investors end up taking a bath because it will actually take 10x longer to get a return than they thought. 2) Investment becomes inefficient - there are lot of GPUs being bought in 2025 that should have been bought in 2030. By the time 2030 comes along, those 2025 GPUs will be outdated, so the value they will provide will be less than if they had been purchased at the correct time

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#172

Post by cluckindan »

lelanthran wrote: post #160
cluckindan wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

18 days

I sense a business opportunity here: betting on stocks! Maybe we can have a central market where people can exchange their money for bets. Maybe even sell their bet off before the due date. We can call it a "stock market", or maybe even a "stock exchange". I expect I'll be able to get a patent on it if I prefix the name with "online", or suffix it with "on the internet".

Even better, form pairs of stocks and make them fight! Bet on the outcome using any liquid electronic currency, such as CS skins!

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#173

Post by re-thc »

neuronic wrote: post #134
XorNot wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you're missing is that real value can be created in these exchanges - Nvidia really makes chips for example. The issue is that it's an industry of investment which exists solely to power more investment in AI - the entire chain is still assuming that someone will eventually pay for this. At the end of the day all that money leaks out to employees and suppliers...but no one those people transact with may have any…

That's only really value if the chips are useful and if there are people buying the chips for something they want to do with them. It's entirely based on the perception that LLM training & inference is here to stay at ever growing scales when the shortcomings of Artificial Dreaming are increasingly scrutinized. Not all businesses want to end up paying refunds to their clients like Deloitte [1] because the LLM halluci…

> It's entirely based on the perception that LLM training & inference is here to stay at ever growing scales when the shortcomings of Artificial Dreaming are increasingly scrutinized. Not all businesses want to end up paying refunds to their clients like Deloitte [1] because the LLM hallucinated crap into their reports (and they failed to correct it).

This assumes Deloitte didn't make more $$$ from the deal by "outsourcing" it to AI than not. It was a partial refund.

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#174

Post by skatingaway »

XorNot wrote: post #119
heywoods wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it fair to say OpenAI is in a sense “washing” the money passing between Nvidia and Oracle? And instead of taking a cut in the traditional money laundering they are enjoying massive valuation gains? When the fed investigates this does it matter if one of the 3 companies is not a publicly traded company?

What you're missing is that real value can be created in these exchanges - Nvidia really makes chips for example. The issue is that it's an industry of investment which exists solely to power more investment in AI - the entire chain is still assuming that someone will eventually pay for this. At the end of the day all that money leaks out to employees and suppliers...but no one those people transact with may have any…

Leaks out? Don’t you mean “trickles down”?

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#175

Post by ozgrakkurt »

Traubenfuchs wrote: post #123
nl wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oracle most certainly is not struggling. Even putting aside the NVidia deal, their cloud business is thriving.

They give you 4 nodes with 1 vcpu and 6GB RAM each for free forever by the way. Most other stuff has a free tier too. I used it to learn terraform and have a kubernetes cluster running. I know it's always trendy to bash oracle and simp for AWS, but it is THE best option for learning and hobbyists.

On a sofware salary, would rather pay the 20 something to a provider like hetzner instead of giving my personal info to oracle

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#176

Post by kakacik »

willvarfar wrote: post #140
victorbjorklund wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doubt he believes that. Getting AGI (whatever that actually means) means we are still far away from reversing ageing.

(Interestingly, some of the world's dictators do seem to have an interest in the current state of the art in prolonging life. For example Xi and Putin chatted about organ replacement https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr70rvrd41ko )

[flagged]

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#177

Post by mschuster91 »

viewtransform wrote: post #155
mschuster91 wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What's he going to do with all that money, and what does he care for the risk it's bad or shady? The thing that unites Ellison, Trump, Musk, Thiel and a fair few of the other politically active billionaires is the obsession with "legacy" - they want to leave their mark in the history books, figures which will likely be remembered and taught in schools in thousands of years similar to Roman emperors. Musk is the mos…

Obama was the fourth U.S. president to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, after Theodore Roosevelt (1906) and Woodrow Wilson (1919)—both of whom received the award during their terms—and Jimmy Carter (2002), who received the award 21 years after leaving office. - wikipedia

Thanks for the correction!

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#178

Post by liendolucas »

Traubenfuchs wrote: post #141
jeswin wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's very cool. I was going to get a hetzner for some hobby projects. Can you get that without adding a payment mechanism? For some reason, I'd be more cautious about putting my card into Oracle's offering than anyone else.

> Can you get that without adding a payment mechanism? No! There are actually two free tiers. The limited free tier you get without adding a CC and then this advanced "always free" tier I am using, where you have to use and verify a CC and have to pay big bucks if you mess up. limited free tier: 300$ to be spent in 30 days advanced always free tier: https://docs.oracle.com/en-us/iaas/Content/FreeTier/freetier...

So it's free... Until is not. My take on this would be that if Oracle makes any change to that "free" tier and you do not take proper action you might be automatically charged hefty amounts from your credit card. No, thanks. It's way way safer to spend few bucks a month in other VPS options than get a big surprise on your credit card.

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#179

Post by rasz »

seydor wrote: post #159

clearly openAI is the top dog here who can hoover all the money , but it's not a public company

So far OpenAI hoovered - (minus) $7 Billion in first quarter 2025. $11.2 billion OPEX (compute, sales/marketing) in exchange for $4.3bn revenue. I wonder if revenue sharing agreement with Microsoft means Microsoft gets to pay for half of that :-)

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#180

Post by Pingk »

OhioMan2943 wrote: post #167
throw-10-8 wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I completely withdrew from the US market last Nov 5th. It's plainly obvious where all of this is going.

Where did you put your funds? bonds are screwed but I'm thinking gold

There are plenty of non-US index funds, like EU, UK, Japan and others. There are also indices that track smaller companies rather than just the S&P500 or Nasdaq.

Or diversify in both directions - small US, and big and small international funds.

Post reply on HN