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How the AI bubble ate Y Combinator

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Re: How the AI bubble ate Y Combinator

#171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The self-described "startup community" hasn't produced much of any value to me in a really long time. Dropbox-like things are somewhat useful, but that started in 2007 or so and the one I actually use in maybe 2011 or so. I just took a look at yclist.com, which ends in 2019. Noticed only a few that I've ever heard of and none that I use. Possibly there are some since then but I sort of doubt it. There are a couple of…

Some of the self driving car companies were startups, no? OpenAI as well.

I think the most important self-driving car company is Waymo, apparently founded as the Stanford Self-Driving Car Team in 2004, somehow became the Google Self-Driving Car Project in 2009, the renamed Waymo in 2016.

All that is pretty long ago now and doesn't really have much connection to the SV "startup community" (Google ceased being meaningfully described as a "startup" a long, long time ago).

And anyway, I don't care about self-driving cars. Don't have one, don't particularly want one.

The direct benefits to me of OpenAI are nearly negligible. I use it (and others) now and then for various things but if it disappeared tomorrow, my life and work would not be meaningfully impacted.

Re: How the AI bubble ate Y Combinator

#172
post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The self-described "startup community" hasn't produced much of any value to me in a really long time. Dropbox-like things are somewhat useful, but that started in 2007 or so and the one I actually use in maybe 2011 or so. I just took a look at yclist.com, which ends in 2019. Noticed only a few that I've ever heard of and none that I use. Possibly there are some since then but I sort of doubt it. There are a couple of…

To be fair, there are probably quite a few useful startups hidden in the B2B world, especially given how much accepted startup strategy appears to have shifted to focusing on that segment.

This is true, but as far as I can tell, does not benefit me much. That's why I mentioned Stripe as something that probably does benefit me indirectly.

But a lot of the YC companies in particular seem to be making software I don't care about to sell to other companies making other software I don't care about to sell to other companies making other software I don't care about, and so on. The benefit to me of all this activity seems to be so close to zero that the difference doesn't matter.

Re: How the AI bubble ate Y Combinator

#173

I was at a meeting of a bunch of VCs a while ago (a couple of months). The principal partner of one of the larger funds said that they will now only consider investments that are AI related. Just to give you a data point, I'm not saying that that is a trend. But if that's a market representative you can't fault the supply side for adapting to it.

You can always fault the supply side.

Re: How the AI bubble ate Y Combinator

#174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't say that. "AI" (quotes deliberate) is the biggest story in tech, right now, for better or for worse. HN is a news site, so it's fairly logical that "AI" would dominate. It wasn't that long ago, that you couldn't find a pitch deck, anywhere, that was missing the word "Blockchain." I'm finding it interesting. It's definitely a bubble, but unlike crypto, there's some real utility here. I do think that we'll b…

Brother go to something like r/cryptocurrency to see people trying to justify the real utility... I am not a crypto advocate but there are definitely a lot of similarities. The only One thing I can respect Sam Altman for is the line that he said about bubbles and "When bubbles happen, smart people get overexcited about a kernel of truth,” This is the similarity... Both had some use cases, one might have more and the…

> see people trying to justify

Tangential pet-peeve: "That's fixed with private blockchain", which is the equivalent of "That's fixed with Segways that have a second set of wheels and the self-balancing is disabled."

There's a bunch of people busy reinventing decades-old old tech/accounting, either because they never bothered to learn what was actually new about "blockchain", or because they can't bear to admit that the new stuff wasn't really good/necessary.

________

[Edit] To digress into specifics, the characteristic that sets "Blockchain" apart from what we already had (distributed databases, Merkle trees etc.) is fulfilling a product requirement: That node-membership is distributed and uncontrollable. That's what causes a cascade of anti-abuse features.

But outside of wild-west cryptocurrency, that usually isn't necessary, nor even desirable when you consider the rest of the cycle-burning baggage and complexity that comes with it.

Re: How the AI bubble ate Y Combinator

#175
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly my thoughts. Couldn't agree more really, there is so much to discuss on this short time that we have on earth but a lot of that energy is going into talking about AI and AI again it seems. I have nothing against the tech but c'mon I would argue that open source itself overall is more valuable than AI but that isn't an apples to orange comparison but still, I see far fewer discussions of open source as compare…

>I see far fewer discussions of open source as compared to AI. Because the big discussions of open source were decades ago now. If you add up all the discussions of open source in the past I'd assume they'd out number the AI discussions now. Also, there is very little novel to discuss about open source. Now novel and 'important' are different things, but novel is what tends to write articles and get eyeballs.

There's an enormous amount to discuss about "open source," and it's neglected enough that the bro generation of programmers doesn't even understand it, or the difference between it and Free software, and what those differences materially mean to developers and the public at large.

The reason that HN is eaten up by LLMs is because it's eaten by any trendy topic that's in the mainstream news. HN used to be directed by an active and opinionated mind in pg, and it's been left to salaried, caretaking censors whose primary job is to make sure the site doesn't become an embarrassment. This mainly consists of artificially excluding discussions that may lead to energetic debate; debate that usually becomes swamped with low-quality comments by people speaking outside of their expertise, and can make the place look like a cesspool.

But energetic debate is where all of the energy is. The problem isn't those topics, the problem is that those topics also take a lot of energy to moderate the problems out of. We're experiencing an abandoned place, not a place driven by anything internal. It's an old barn that is kept clean just so it doesn't catch on fire.

We don't talk about FOSS because it isn't a general topic that is in the mainstream news, not because it isn't an important topic that is more vital to discuss than ever, in the face of monopoly, walled-gardens, verified signatures and centralization.

A positive editor like pg was aware of this, and treated the site as his personal playground. It partially revolved around what were essentially his journal entries. I only ever ended up on this site because he decided one day to have every front page article be about Erlang, of all things.

edit: and to add to the penultimate paragraph, an energetic discussion of FOSS that lead to productive projects and statements by people of influence would influence the mainstream. This place used to make stories, not just Digg them. The purpose of the site (other than to run something on Arc) seemed to me to be to juice new YC startups in a way that would leak into the general media. It doesn't even seem useful for YC any more.

Re: How the AI bubble ate Y Combinator

#176

HN's AI hate-boner has always been a bit off-putting to me. This is a technology forum, and it's pretty much the biggest advance in recent technology that has potential implications for all of our lives. I definitely also get AI-fatigue, but it's no mystery why there's a preponderance of content about LLMs, diffusion models, self-driving cars, etc. YC's goals are to manage risk and to make money, and new tech like th…

Off-putting? I think skepticism over marketing-hype from workers in a field is how things are supposed to work, especially for a group that spends lots of time plotting things out looking for edge-cases and ways for it to fail.

I'd be far more disturbed by the opposite, where everybody on HN is expected to gush over the thing-du-jour.

As aptly-put for a prior hype-cycle:

> Tech Enthusiasts: "Everything in my house is wired to the Internet of Things! I control it all from my smartphone! My smart-house is bluetooth enabled and I can give it voice commands via Alexa! I love the future!"

> Programmers/Engineers: "The most recent piece of technology I own is a printer from 2004 and I keep a loaded gun ready to shoot it if it ever makes an unexpected noise."

Re: How the AI bubble ate Y Combinator

#177
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So like internet startups in the 90s. Like .com in the late 90s. Like social media startups in the late 2000s/2010s. It's all cycles. Every bubble is talked about on HN (and similar sites) because that's the purpose of sites like this.

maybe a big difference is those hype cycles were net-positive for developers. This is the first one in a while that has VCs and upper management salivating with the idea of cutting all the devs lose. Who do YOU think this is likely to replace first, technical developers or administrators?

It worries me a lot what are those devs without jobs now, will do next? Do they change to the dark side and start battling AI startups and technologies?

Re: How the AI bubble ate Y Combinator

#178
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The one field that I have seen impacted more than just on the periphery is translation services. What was worth 20 cts (or even more, for niche stuff) per word not that long ago is now essentially free.

That impact is very real, but you aren’t getting the same thing for free that you were getting with 20¢/word.

Yes, fully agreed.

Re: How the AI bubble ate Y Combinator

#179
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I see far fewer discussions of open source as compared to AI. Because the big discussions of open source were decades ago now. If you add up all the discussions of open source in the past I'd assume they'd out number the AI discussions now. Also, there is very little novel to discuss about open source. Now novel and 'important' are different things, but novel is what tends to write articles and get eyeballs.

There's an enormous amount to discuss about "open source," and it's neglected enough that the bro generation of programmers doesn't even understand it, or the difference between it and Free software, and what those differences materially mean to developers and the public at large. The reason that HN is eaten up by LLMs is because it's eaten by any trendy topic that's in the mainstream news. HN used to be directed by…

That is an insight that my age simply didn't bring.

I am not sure about the accuracy of it as I was there after the AI era and I have only seen the slow but steady creep of it.

> This place used to make stories, not just Digg them

This does give me goosebumps.

Honestly, I like this place because it has a lot of nice people and we are more alike and different and it's just that this seems to be the place I have decided to call a home to all of my ramblings/thoughts on essentially everything.

The only other social media that I operate is maybe discord and a very small dose of reddit.

it does seem to me that somewhere along the internet, we might have lost it, or atleast its hidden, waiting to be discovered.

I can't help but share things like julia evan's zines and how he inspired one day when I messaged him on mail about being worried about AI when he shared me somebody who had created a better UI for the man pages and so many other interesting pages which really reflected personality that I didn't know exist.

I don't really think that we can do over hackernews but there is certainly a possibility of atleast having niche discussions like erlang and discussing them could lead to more people exposure's to it... which can benefit them or the community!

I can maybe think of that we might need to use something like matrix to atleast create a public community with better moderation if that's the issue.

I think the HN mods are also trying their best but if we want opinions, the best way I right now could think of to fixing this as an issue might be to creating a hackernews but not for AI which I had actually suggested once but everybody just said to me to block posts about AI or to create a tracker which removes all AI references at most, the post is definitely lost in my comments but I definitely remember it.

I can understand where you are coming from and I think that this place isn't a substitute for a place like that and we still might need a place like that too if we become too pessimistic of y-combinator.

Never give up hope I suppose :)

Re: How the AI bubble ate Y Combinator

#180

90% (154/170) of the latest HN summer batch are AI startups. I was expecting a lot, but not this much.

Or they're including AI as a buzzword in whatever they were already doing, and not exactly ignoring a new tool, but might be overselling how useful AI is to their thing?

Literally every tech startup company out there is spinning itself as AI. I’m familiar with some of them well enough to know that the AI is bullshit. You could be running an SVM on some data and you’re now “powered by AI”. I’m not joking.
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