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I'm worried it might get bad

danielmiessler.com

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Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#171

Post by znpy »

curiousguy wrote: post #170
mholt wrote: post #23

Don't worry -- soon after that, there will be high demand for human coders as companies scramble to hire to rewrite all the buggy and vuln-ridden AI-hallucinated software. We're on the verge of two revolutions in tech, not one.

The lack of devs that understand the domain knowledge and the codebase will be the main issue. I would say that the current capabilities of genAI is like a junior dev, sometimes even a mid-level. But one main difference is that a dev is slowly learning and improving and at some point will become a senior dev and also domain specialist. If there is a codebase created by genAI, then it’s equivalent as if all devs left…

I wonder if the codebase will be understandable at all.

You can most often “get used” to a codebase because they authors tend to stick to the same patterns in many ways, and they are somewhat coherent across time. After a bit you can kinda guess in what file is a feature implemented etc etc.

Will this still be true with ai doing most of the work?

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#172

Post by BobaFloutist »

dexwiz wrote: post #120
AstroBen wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I shared your view a year ago. Hell half my posts here on HN are arguing against the annoying hype. Today I make heavy use of AI and my code quality has gone up, not down. It's better tested, better factored, with better error handling covering more edge cases AI code is only buggy if no-one is guiding or reviewing it I'm not sure how long we'll need someone in the middle to actually review the code

I view AI like a gas pedal. For an experienced driver it can really help. For someone new, straight into a wall. For some code you go straight for hours and barely touch the steering wheel. For some code it's all wheel and too much gas is a mistake. That said, we will need less coders overall. Just like you don't need human drafters or calculators in the same way. It will cut the bottom out of the industry, and entry…

Maybe NOS is a better analogy, since even the newest of drivers is going to need and get use out of the gas pedal.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#173

Post by dexwiz »

BobaFloutist wrote: post #172
dexwiz wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I view AI like a gas pedal. For an experienced driver it can really help. For someone new, straight into a wall. For some code you go straight for hours and barely touch the steering wheel. For some code it's all wheel and too much gas is a mistake. That said, we will need less coders overall. Just like you don't need human drafters or calculators in the same way. It will cut the bottom out of the industry, and entry…

Maybe NOS is a better analogy, since even the newest of drivers is going to need and get use out of the gas pedal.

I think new devs could probably get use of it as a replacement for SO or Google. But if they slam on it and think they can vibe code a whole app, they are going to have a bad time.

But NOS may be better. It might make you faster but it doesn't make you better.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#174

Post by ct »

The wealth gap and wages not keeping up with inflation is a large part of the problem.

There's no trickle down just trickle up. Giving Bezos, Zuckerberg, Benoiff, corporations more money isn't going to create more jobs.

If there's no money for consumers to spend these B2C companies will have less need for B2B software that most of us build.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#175

Post by mritterhoff »

hyperhello wrote: post #31

Take the even more global view of the United States. We can grow more than enough good food for everyone, and there is plenty of land. We have water, working infrastructure, and all the other ingredients. The rest is just giving people money to do what they please. Really. Do we need faster technology? Do we need to alloy new metals or develop new medicines? No. We could live the spartan life of fifty years ago, or a…

It sounds like you're advocating for degrowth? Why would Americans willingly embrace being poorer?

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#176

Post by mritterhoff »

mikestew wrote: post #67
CalRobert wrote: post #36

Surprised he didn’t also mention US national debt and servicing it as interest rates rise.

Why would he? I’ve been hearing concerns about national debt my whole life (including the 80s when interest rates were a hell of a lot higher than now), and I’m retirement age. I’m not saying those chickens won’t eventually come home to roost, but probably not anytime soon. The U. S. has become quite skilled at giving that tin can a swift kick down the road.

True, but as a percentage of GDP we're at historical (peacetime) highs.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#177

Post by 93po »

CalRobert wrote: post #133
xlbuttplug2 wrote: post #128

Why did this fall off the first page so hard? Regardless of the quality of the post, it was getting good engagement I thought.

At least it isn’t flagged? Negative takes on AI do poorly here

____ does good/poorly on HN is often repeated but usually never true. I see constant negativity on AI, and in fact I see it overwhelmingly more negative than positive takes. but i also have my own bias in what i see, and probably falling to the same phenomenon as you

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#178

Post by fuzzfactor »

strict9 wrote: post #39

I agree with many of the author's observations. I see a lot of the same thing in my circles. Where my views differ are when it comes to the leap between layoffs and AI. Corporate leadership is eager to reduce the biggest source of cost (employees) and happy to use AI as cover. But it's not the reality. AI isn't adding productivity to the company's bottom line in numbers big enough to rationalize the layoffs. I can po…

"Tech" layoffs are a canary.

But not because of tech, AI, or things like that. It's the rate of pay.

When prosperity is the thing that's receding, money counts more than ever because lack of money threatens more than could be imagined.

And even though it's not as common as it should be, employees can be fairly valued as an asset. In a good way, where you're much happier being valued like that than not.

So even a company that values their people more so than most, will have to make sacrifices on all fronts when the going gets rough, like they don't have to do for years in a row when things are merely non-ideal.

This can cause some of the highest-paid people to get kicked out much earlier, like few have seen before. Even in companies that are not trying to preserve as much head-count until things turn around, they may have no real choice.

A lot of non-tech high-dollar people are also being shed, and it looks like on the increase. Consumers may not have enough accumulated wealth any more to be able to bail out a consumer economy.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#179

Post by adregan »

thisisit wrote: post #139

There has been convergence of many events: 1. The tax deduction change where costs couldn't be classified as an expense. 2. The saturation in people joining coding. At one point in time everyone wanted to be part of a bootcamp to earn that sweet coding salary. 3. Rising interest rates means the era of borrowing at low costs is over. etc. AI is last on my list for the reasons that people are being laid off. And its no…

When the article mentions "tech-adjacent," I think it is worth keeping in mind that this includes a broad swath of jobs that would never had qualified for amortizing salaries as R&D. For example, I'm skeptical that the tax change will have an impact on the number of television and film producers that are currently unemployed due to a huge slowdown in greenlighting projects from streaming services. I feel there is a contraction happening (though, practically, it doesn't always appear that way) that is a greater source of consternation than amortizing developer salaries will alleviate.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#180

Post by arduanika »

itsalotoffun wrote: post #71
arduanika wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I want to upvote this because I agree with your points, but can't because the last line is needlessly rude to the author.

Fair enough (and edited). I get angry at Chicken Littles spraying their anxieties all over other people because they can. It's not okay.

I do too. :)

But your earlier line about meds didn't even make sense in this context, if you think it through.

Now you have my upvote.

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