Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The Dollar Is Dead

mathmeetsmoney.substack.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

171–180 of 367 posts

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#171

Post by disambiguation »

> Others have looked more towards what a post-dollar world would look like: a gold-backed currency. A basket of commodities. A BRICS+ crypto-alternative. Bretton Woods 3.0.

> All of it’s noise — and none of it matters.

I've been reading libertarian de dollarization doom posts since 2008.

The question is, if the system is so messed up, why does everyone continue to put up with it? It's exactly due to the lack of viable alternatives. So long as the American monetary system is the only game in town, it will remain the reserve currency regardless of the debt or strength of the dollar.

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#172

Post by betaby »

hdgvhicv wrote: post #58
lotsofpulp wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Which means that people who cannot bury their wealth in (non-treasury!) assets will pay off the debt. I.e. people who need to work, which means it disproportionately affects the young. This is what has to happen in a democratic society with a flattened and eventual top heavy population pyramid that will not vote to reduce old people benefits.

Workers will see higher wages as there is more work and fewer people to do the work Everyone will see higher prices as the costs of work increase Interest rates will be low as there’s no other option

> Workers will see higher wages as there is more work and fewer people to do the work

Canada effectively has removed immigration cap. So no, not going to happen.

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#174

Post by 0xdde »

nostromo wrote: post #101
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no "overspending." There is only undertaxing. The debt is literally just the accumulated difference between spending and taxation. If extreme wealth was taxed, the debt would be zero. The point isn't even to "pay for spending" but to enforce a functional social contract, and to limit the political and democratic distortions created by extreme inequality. "Markets" should not have a veto on policy in a democr…

Europe has repeatedly tried to soak the rich, and the results are always the same: the rich move their wealth somewhere else and you end up breaking even or even reducing your tax revenue. France: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/31/france-drops-7... UK: https://obr.uk/box/effect-of-the-additional-rate-of-income-t... Sweden: https://eml.berkeley.edu/~saez/course/seimAEJ17wealth.pdf It's interesting to note…

Your "Swedish" source appears to conclude that the wealth tax is effective, but suffered from loopholes and lack of enforcement. Why not fix those rather than follow your "real plan"?

Also your UK link does not support your argument:

> Weaker-than-expected tax liabilities from additional rate taxpayers are not necessarily an indicator of an unexpectedly low yield from the 50p rate. Incomes for those earning above £150,000 could be depressed for other reasons. For example, high income earners are more likely to derive a higher proportion of income from savings, dividends and other investments – and these have been much weaker in recent years than employment income.

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#175

Post by saubeidl »

starmole wrote: post #164

This article is initially very well written and convincing. And it started to stress me out a little bit! Am I at great risk for having most of my wealth tied to the dollar? But taking a step back: It is making very strong predictions for a future state of what I would consider a chaotic system. As the author identifies as a Physicist and not a Psychic, why is there no mention of uncertainty? No mention of how you wo…

> Am I at great risk for having most of my wealth tied to the dollar?

Well, you lost 15% compared to Euros this year so far...

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#176

Post by bootsmann »

lvl155 wrote: post #170
bootsmann wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The dollar has lost 15% vis-a-vis the euro this year, how does your theory explain this?

It lost 15% because Trump is undermining the US? What’s there to explain? Does US still have its military? Yes. Do you think currencies stay completely stagnant over even one week? It’s driven by a myriad of market forces.

Yes thats the point I was trying to make. The strength of the USD derives itself in large parts from the fundamental trust markets have in US institutions not from the strength of its military.

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#177

Post by nostromo »

pseudo0 wrote: post #163
nostromo wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's pretty average (which is a good thing). Japan: 20% China: 20% India: 13% UK: 24% Italy: 26% Germany: 26% France: 30% Then there's Canada of course... 50% with a proposal to make it 66% in 2026. Let's see how that works out!

Isn't it a 50% inclusion rate for capital gains in Canada? That works out to a maximum tax rate of 27% in the top tax bracket. And they canceled the proposed increase to a 66% inclusion rate, which is probably smart considering how a ton of rich Canadians already move to Florida.

Thank you for the correction.

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#178

Post by dehrmann »

hilsdev wrote: post #92
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no "overspending." There is only undertaxing. The debt is literally just the accumulated difference between spending and taxation. If extreme wealth was taxed, the debt would be zero. The point isn't even to "pay for spending" but to enforce a functional social contract, and to limit the political and democratic distortions created by extreme inequality. "Markets" should not have a veto on policy in a democr…

Why is the default to tax more and not spend less? Is there really no limit to the amount of spending the government should do? You see no possible use of resources that would be wasteful?

The default depends on your party and which party is in power.

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#179

Post by starmole »

saubeidl wrote: post #175
starmole wrote: post #164

This article is initially very well written and convincing. And it started to stress me out a little bit! Am I at great risk for having most of my wealth tied to the dollar? But taking a step back: It is making very strong predictions for a future state of what I would consider a chaotic system. As the author identifies as a Physicist and not a Psychic, why is there no mention of uncertainty? No mention of how you wo…

> Am I at great risk for having most of my wealth tied to the dollar? Well, you lost 15% compared to Euros this year so far...

Lol, yes! I should take my dad's advice and buy forest land in Germany instead of US index funds. And this is not sarcastic - it might actually be the better strategy! But the article does not help me at all making that decision.

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#180

Post by etempleton »

mensetmanusman wrote: post #117
etempleton wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the PRC were to do it, I would imagine you would try to do it under the Trump administration as he is anti-interventionist and sees the world as a series of regional fiefdoms led by the strongest regional player--Asia, to him, is China's region. This is in sharp contrast to every prior US administration and with the Biden administration in particular coming out with the strongest rhetoric regarding any potential i…

The action on Iran proves otherwise, especially since his entire anti-interventionist wing was squealing that World War III would start if he did bomb the nuclear sites. Those around the president have been pretty clear that the US will defend Taiwan until the US is capable of its own supply of leading edge semi conductors. Taiwan is very easy to defend with the harsh ocean separating them, especially since North Kor…

I think the limited actions in Iran are not at all comparable to the commitment and risks involved in directly defending Taiwan from invasion or naval / aerial blockade. With that said, I do think that the US is likely to intervene in some capacity regardless of admin, but slightly less so with the current admin.
Post reply on HN