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America’s incarceration rate is in decline

theatlantic.com

171–180 of 586 posts

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#171

The Atlantic suggests this results from the release of those convicted during a decades long crime wave, which apprently took place when many of us grew up. Perhaps it also tracks with a progressive decline in law enforcement. Whether that is because crime waves not longer exist or whether it is some other reason is a question for the reader. A substanbtial amount of crime is now done via internet. Few are ever convi…

Crime is also down compared to where it was if you ask people directly [0].

[0]: https://ncvs.bjs.ojp.gov/multi-year-trends/crimeType

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#172
post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue here is this can lead people to pushing it till 40+. I was talking to a nice girl up until she mentioned still wanting kids in her late 40s. Maybe I’m old school, but telling someone you froze your eggs the same day you meet them is weird. Society itself is broken. You SHOULD be able to graduate high school and make enough to support yourself and a family with a bit of struggle. This rapidly transformed int…

Nobody said you should wait that long. As for your anecdote, what’s wrong with figuring out early during dating whether you plan on having children or not? People should talk about those things early, since there is hardly anything that makes a relationship more incompatible long term, and leads to more (even mutual) heartbreak and sorrow than having to break up with a person solely because their most uncompromisable…

This wasn’t even a first date, it was like she said hi to me at an event and just started taking about having a family.

Felt really awkward for small talk.

My point was the economy should support having a family in your 20s if that’s what you want to do. You shouldn’t need a well paid career, a quality lifestyle that supports a family should be available for everyone.

I imagine universal health care, paid family leave ( for months not weeks) and affirmative (free?) childcare could bring that gap.

At a point it isn’t even an age issue. A lot of people will never earn enough to really support a family, and that’s a failure of the social contract.

You should be able to get a job as a Walmart clerk, have your partner work part time and still afford to have a family.

I think I’ve muddled my own point here, but it should be easier. Maybe that Walmart clerk could own a house ?!

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#174
post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had my children at 36 and 38, and I'm the mother, and energy-wise, I've had no issues. Yes, they considered me to be of "advanced maternal age" in the OB department and gave me special treatment due to it, but my doctors told me that the "advanced maternal age" threshold (35) was based off outdated research anyway. In the bay area, most of the mothers I've met were around that age, and my friends are having their k…

I wish they called it "advanced maternal age" here. They use the delightful phrase "Geriatric pregnancy" in Australia

My wife is a retired nurse ( American ), she uses that term when referring to such pregnancies.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's lead. Lead concentration in America "rapidly increased in the 1950s and then declined in the 1980s" [1]. There is a non-linear discontinuity among kids born in the mid 80s, with linear improvements through to those born in the late 2000s [2]. Arrest rates for violent crimes are highest from 15 to 29 years old (particularly 17 to 23-year olds) [3]. They're particularly low for adults after 50 years old. We're aro…

Can we blame lead for the US’ electoral landscape too?

You could, if you wanted to misdiagnose the problem.

You'd have more success blaming COVID inflation and the general public's poor education in economics and lack of understanding why eggs were $3.50/dozen. (Today they are $6.00/dozen)

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#176
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In the bay area, most of the mothers I've met were around that age, and my friends are having their kids at the same age San Francisco has the highest rate of geriatric pregnancies in USA. We are in a statistical bubble where having kids late is normal (because careers and hcol). https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/mother-birth-age...

Bubble implies that it's going to burst. I don't see it. Women aren't going to stop wanting careers, and HCOL is coming for everybody. I expect the whole country to join SF in this "bubble".

Bubble in this context means a unique environment that is unlike places on the outside of said bubble. It's not referring to a bubble like in the sense of a inflating market bubble.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#177
post #12

> Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey. Another factor which will soon impact this, if it isn't already, is the rapidly changing nature of youth. Fertility rates have been dropping since 200…

> All of these working together means that each year the act of having a child is much more deliberate and the parents likely having more resources. Which in turn should mean fewer youth delinquency, which as the article notes is how most in prison started out.

Or the less popular more controversial hypothesis: the steepest decline in births is among the poor, a population with, on average, worse impulse control and more issues with mental health, and since all qualities are at least partly heritable...

Surprisingly, the fertility rate among the affluent does not appear to be nearly as impacted.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#178
post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody said you should wait that long. As for your anecdote, what’s wrong with figuring out early during dating whether you plan on having children or not? People should talk about those things early, since there is hardly anything that makes a relationship more incompatible long term, and leads to more (even mutual) heartbreak and sorrow than having to break up with a person solely because their most uncompromisable…

This wasn’t even a first date, it was like she said hi to me at an event and just started taking about having a family. Felt really awkward for small talk. My point was the economy should support having a family in your 20s if that’s what you want to do. You shouldn’t need a well paid career, a quality lifestyle that supports a family should be available for everyone. I imagine universal health care, paid family leav…

I do agree with your point about society. The reason we waited are way beyond monetary issues, and we would have waited regardless, but people should be able to support a family without an “advanced” career if they choose so.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's lead. Lead concentration in America "rapidly increased in the 1950s and then declined in the 1980s" [1]. There is a non-linear discontinuity among kids born in the mid 80s, with linear improvements through to those born in the late 2000s [2]. Arrest rates for violent crimes are highest from 15 to 29 years old (particularly 17 to 23-year olds) [3]. They're particularly low for adults after 50 years old. We're aro…

Seriously? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_c...

[deleted]

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#180
post #12

> Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey. Another factor which will soon impact this, if it isn't already, is the rapidly changing nature of youth. Fertility rates have been dropping since 200…

It's lead. Lead concentration in America "rapidly increased in the 1950s and then declined in the 1980s" [1]. There is a non-linear discontinuity among kids born in the mid 80s, with linear improvements through to those born in the late 2000s [2]. Arrest rates for violent crimes are highest from 15 to 29 years old (particularly 17 to 23-year olds) [3]. They're particularly low for adults after 50 years old. We're aro…

What exactly are you claiming?

Your points say old people have more lead, but then you say young people are more violent. That doesn't square with the articles point that incarceration rates are falling.

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