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Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#171

Post by arkmm »

philips wrote: post #159
FeloniousHam wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Counterpoint: I had a Tesla with HW3 and FSD is absolutely a wonder and a delight (I now have a Tesla with HW4, and it's a noticeable improvement on my M3). It drives me through traffic on my commute everyday, in all kinds of weather, and is a better driver than me (say) 95% of the time. As I frequently mention in these "sanity response" posts, it's not perfect. Sun in the camera will sometimes cause it to bail. Mayb…

Did you have the FSD they gave away for free for a few weeks last year? Because I felt like I was going crazy with neighbors saying it was great while I couldn't get it to stop doing dangerous stuff. Turns out they had HW4. I think the new stack or whatever is just not ok on hw3.

Did you try recalibrating your cameras? After a windshield replacement my HW3 FSD camera calibration was off and it was similarly terrible like you were describing (going way too close to curbs), but then I recalibrated on a straight highway stretch and since then it's been amazing. Over the past few thousand miles, I only take over for parking and getting out of parking lots at this point. (Also the occasional intervention if I want to take a different route that I think might be faster.)

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#172

Post by cowthulhu »

JohnFen wrote: post #154
cowthulhu wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Totally possible this time is different... but I'm more making the point that if I'd bet against Tesla each time it looked like they would tank, I'd be very broke. At least historically, Tesla stock has shown a consistent ability to defy reality. No pressure, but if you feel comfortable with it... would you share the specific contracts you bought? I'll be interested to see how it works out.

> Totally possible this time is different Sure, it's possible. However, all signs are that it is exceedingly unlikely.

I'll hold you to that in a couple months :)

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#173

Post by rasz »

cowthulhu wrote: post #16
blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

Tesla has proven to be very good at lying, moving goalposts, and insisting that this time [x] is right around the corner. I don't know what would be different this time. They might launch it with, like, 5 cars total, or have it be 100% teleoperated, or limit it to side roads. They might require the passenger to sit in the drivers seat and take liability, or push it back a few more months, or only run it at 3AM when t…

>Tesla has proven to be very good at lying

Not Tesla. Musk was, but that ship sailed together with his nazi salute.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#174

Post by [deleted] »

Veserv wrote: post #59
kreetx wrote: post #23

Note that electrec.co only ever has negative takes on Tesla.

That is entirely untrue. Fred Lambert was one of the most full-throated supporters of Tesla just a few years ago. He personally referred around 15 million dollars of sales [1] to Tesla. If even Tesla's most fervent supporters now call them liars and dangerous, you should probably listen. [1] https://electrek.co/2019/01/17/tesla-roadster-free-killed-re...

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#175

Post by enslavedrobot »

blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

What's your strike price and maturity date?

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#176

Post by enslavedrobot »

guywithahat wrote: post #94
blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

There is a weird disconnect between Reddit and the rest of the world, and it's becoming increasingly obvious when I encounter a Redditor off reddit

When it comes to Tesla Reddit is 95% in line with hacker news sentiment.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#177

Post by rsynnott »

blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

> I have over $100k in Tesla puts.

I mean, if this were a _normal_ company, that would make sense. But it's Tesla, so it's a very dangerous game, because Tesla's stock price is at best only peripherally related to Tesla's business. You're in great risk of Musk posting a meme or having another child with a silly name or whatever, thus pushing up the stock price 10%.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#178

Post by rsynnott »

moralestapia wrote: post #45
WorkerBee28474 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Sure, tell that to Theranos' executives. Oh yeah, you can't, they're in jail.

I mean, the point is, someone betting against Theranos in this way, if it were a public company, would almost certainly have lost money (unless their timing was _perfect_). Enron would be a better example (as it was public); a lot of people, even before Enron's downfall, were fairly sure that Enron was dodgy, but trading on that belief would have been extremely dangerous, because it might take _years_ to come unstuck, and shorts (or puts) ain't free.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#179

Post by rsynnott »

danans wrote: post #50
blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

> But Elon has killed his brand with his politics, and the robotaxi initiative is a desperate attempt to gain ground. But it's going to kill someone and it will be 100% on him because he's the one pushing this when there's no way it will ever be ready for real world situations the way Waymo is. What if his political allies allow and enable him to push this upon the populace despite it killing people. After all, other…

> What if his political allies

Does he have any of those left? Like, he just had a very public spat with Trump, and despite his attempts to crawl back, Donald doesn't really seem to be taking the bait. Who is his political constituency at this point, far right never-Trumpers? That seems fairly marginal.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#180

Post by rsynnott »

cherryteastain wrote: post #38
Analemma_ wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I also got the free month of FSD about four months ago and tried it out on my Model 3, and was astonished at how bad it was in the greater Seattle area: I had to manually intervene on about 4 out of every 5 drives. I do not understand how I continue to see so many comments online raving about how great FSD is; I have to conclude these are coming from either desperate stock-boosters or people who drive exclusively on…

It's definitely behind Waymo level, but the selling point of Tesla FSD is apparently that it works with 'normal' cameras as opposed to the super expensive Waymo kit so they can afford to put it in an upper mid range car. I've seen it action only in my friend's Tesla in SF, and he also had to manually intervene, but to be fair Tesla themselves say you must be ready to take the wheel at any time. I think it may reach f…

> I think it may reach fully autonomous level with a few more years in the oven though.

The article is about Tesla planning to launch it as 'autonomous' (mostly) driving _next week_.

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