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"AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

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Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#171

Post by ninetyninenine »

AstroBen wrote: post #136
ninetyninenine wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>You can’t project trends out endlessly. But this is not just an endless projection. In one sense we can't have economic growth and energy consumption go endlessly as that will eat up all the available resources on earth, there is a physical hard line. However for AI this is not the case. There is literally an example of human level intelligence exiting in the real world. You're it. We know we haven't even scratched…

There's no evidence we're even on the right track to have human level intelligence so no, I don't think it's realistic to say that Counterpoint: our brains use about 20 watts of power. How much does AI use again? Does this not suggest that it's absolutely nothing like what our brains do?

There is evidence we're on the right track. Are you blind? The evidence is not definitive, but it's evidence that makes it a possibility.

Evidence: ChatGPT and all LLMs.

You cannot realistically say that this isn't evidence. Neither of these things guarantees that AI will take over our jobs but they are datapoints that lend credence to the possibility that it will.

On the other side of the coin, it is utterly unrealistic to say that AI will never take over our jobs when there is Also no definitive evidence on this front.

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#172

Post by outside1234 »

tines wrote: post #128
ednite wrote: post #108

Not an expert here, just speaking from experience as a working dev. I don’t think AI is going to replace my job as a software developers anytime soon, but it’s definitely changing how we work (and in many cases, already has). Personally, I use AI a lot. It’s great for boilerplate, getting unstuck, or even offering alternative solutions I wouldn’t have thought of. But where it still struggles sometimes is with the why…

I would agree with you, but the people making the decision to fire or keep you don’t care about quality, nor do they care about understanding AI or its limitations. If AI mostly does kinda the right thing 70% of the time but saves the company $80k a year, that’s a no-brainer. We’re being Pollyanna-ish to think that anyone cares about the things we care about, that you mention in your post. If firing you saves $1.50 a…

But if the AI inserts things that constantly cost the company $400k per previous head in a lawsuit when private information is leaked, that equation flips.

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#173

Post by TiredOfLife »

ednite wrote: post #108

Not an expert here, just speaking from experience as a working dev. I don’t think AI is going to replace my job as a software developers anytime soon, but it’s definitely changing how we work (and in many cases, already has). Personally, I use AI a lot. It’s great for boilerplate, getting unstuck, or even offering alternative solutions I wouldn’t have thought of. But where it still struggles sometimes is with the why…

> just speaking from experience as a working dev.

That's your problem. You haven't spent the past couple of years trying to get a junior job.

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#174

Post by paul7986 »

tines wrote: post #128
ednite wrote: post #108

Not an expert here, just speaking from experience as a working dev. I don’t think AI is going to replace my job as a software developers anytime soon, but it’s definitely changing how we work (and in many cases, already has). Personally, I use AI a lot. It’s great for boilerplate, getting unstuck, or even offering alternative solutions I wouldn’t have thought of. But where it still struggles sometimes is with the why…

I would agree with you, but the people making the decision to fire or keep you don’t care about quality, nor do they care about understanding AI or its limitations. If AI mostly does kinda the right thing 70% of the time but saves the company $80k a year, that’s a no-brainer. We’re being Pollyanna-ish to think that anyone cares about the things we care about, that you mention in your post. If firing you saves $1.50 a…

Indeed and as a UX Researcher, Designer and Front-End Dev chatGPT Plus does same level of design and front-end development I do. It takes me hours vs. chatGPT Plus five minutes or less to come up with professional logos, web app or website design around the logo and then spits out the front-end code. Once I saw that in late Fall of this year I was like yup there it is .. it can do a good portions/parts of my job. So at my job since I've been doing a lot more Customer UX Support and Research as well telling my co-workers and client that if I could use chatGPT at work I would be more effective (have it do the design and front end development). I feel i need to jump ahead and show I embrace this change asap and AI can not interface with clients, do UX research and any other thing that involves human to human interaction. So to me CX/UX Research is safe and now such workers can also do UX Design and Front-End Development using AI. Really anyone now can do those two things and quickly.

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#175

Post by norir »

eranation wrote: post #16

My personal thoughts on this are - A good lawyer + AI will likely win in court against a non lawyer with AI who would likely win in court against just an AI - A good software engineer + AI will ship features faster / safer vs a non engineer with AI, who will beat just AI - A good doctor + AI will save more lives than a non doctor + AI, who will perform better than just AI As long as a human has a marginal boost to AI…

> A good software engineer + AI will ship features faster / safer vs a non engineer with AI, who will beat just AI

Safer is the crucial word here. If you remove it, I'd argue the ordering should be reversed.

I also will point out that you could replace ai with amphetamines and have close to the same meaning. (And like amphetamines an ai can only act through humans, never solely on its own.)

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#176

Post by tines »

palmotea wrote: post #139
tines wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s a good way to think of it. I think it’s degrading every aspect of life. We’re so obsessed with metrics and efficiency that we don’t know how to live any more.

Yeah, modern society (essentially neoliberal capitalism) does not prioritize quality of life. The apotheosis is maximum output (shareholder profits), even if that means if the vast majority of people are miserable and unhappy (because the low quality of their work-life is not compensated by the products and services they're given access to).

Agreed. And the interesting thing is that now, with smartphones and an endless stream of captivating entertainment (basically Soma), people won't even be able to think long enough to realize they're miserable and unhappy.

If you can impose a new way of living on one single generation---an existence directed toward endless free (for now) entertainment---it is enough to change all subsequent generations.

Once this takes hold, there's no going back.

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#177

Post by ls612 »

kgilpin wrote: post #56
esafak wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How did commercial pilots solve the problem?

In the US, “Junior” pilots typically work as flight instructors until they have built up enough time to no longer be junior. 1500 flight hours is the essential requirement to be an airline pilot, and every hour spent giving instruction counts as a flight hour. It’s not the only way, but it’s the most common way. Airlines don’t fund this; pilots have to work their way up to this level themselves. In Europe it’s differ…

The 1500 hour rule was instituted by congress at the request of pilots unions not the FAA or any other regulator. Europe only requires 250 hours and has a similar aviation safety track record to the US in the 21st century.

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#178

Post by socalgal2 »

ednite wrote: post #108

Not an expert here, just speaking from experience as a working dev. I don’t think AI is going to replace my job as a software developers anytime soon, but it’s definitely changing how we work (and in many cases, already has). Personally, I use AI a lot. It’s great for boilerplate, getting unstuck, or even offering alternative solutions I wouldn’t have thought of. But where it still struggles sometimes is with the why…

> So yeah, for me AI isn’t a replacement.

I agree with everything you wrote. The question is, what about in 6 months? 2 years? 4 years? Just a year ago (not sure the exact timeline) we didn't have the systems we have today that will edit multiple files, iterate over compilation errors and test failures, etc.... So what's it tomorrow?

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#180

Post by bufferoverflow »

skwee357 wrote: post #37

The problem with “AI will replace all jobs” hype, is that it also comes with a flavor of “and we all will do creative work”, while in reality AI replaces all the creative work and people go back to collecting garbage or other physically demanding and mundane jobs.

Why would you think garbage collecting or other mundane jobs won't be automated when much more complex ones are?

If AI+robotization gets to the point where most jobs are automated, humans will get to do.what they actually want to do. For some it's endless entertainment. For others it's science exploration, pollution cleanup, space colonization, curing the disease. All of that with the help of the AIs.

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