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My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

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Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#171
post #3

Machine translation and speech recognition. The state of the art for these is a multi-modal language model. I'm hearing impaired veering on deaf, and I use this technology all day every day. I wanted to watch an old TV series from the 1980s. There are no subtitles available. So I fed the show into a language model (Whisper) and now I have passable subtitles that allow me to watch the show. Am I the only one who remem…

I don't think you are also including having AI lie of "hallucinating" to us which is an important point even if the article is only about having AI write code for an organization.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#173
Why would anyone rather read and fix someone else code rather than writing the code themselves? I do a lot of code review for other human code and it use so much more energy than writing my own code (and surely, as I have competent colleagues, this is not even as bad as if I expected that the code that I'm reading could be totally random shit)

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#174
> It’s projection. People say “LLMs can’t code” when what they really mean is “LLMs can’t write Rust”. Fair enough! But people select languages in part based on how well LLMs work with them, so Rust people should get on that.

How is it the responsibility of the Rust community that there weren't enough metric tons of free code for the machine to slurp up? And the phrasing makes it sound like it's the community's fault for not feeding OpenAI enough code to be stripped of its license and authorship and get blended into a fine latent soup. It's a lot like people coming to a one-man FOSS project with a laundry list of demands, expecting to be treated with the religious reverence of a major enterprise contract.

The whole tone, the pervasive "use it or you'll be left behind"—where users saying they don't want or need it only proves further evidence of its imminent apotheosis—superficially reminds me of previous FUDs.

And how is it not concerning that the thing described as intelligent needs billions of lines to generalize a language a human can learn from a single manual? Will it need hundreds of kLOC to internalize a new library, or even its new version, beyond in-context learning? The answer is yes; you are choosing to freeze the entire tech stack, when fixing its abstractions could actually save you from boilerplate, just so the machine can write it for you at $200 a month with a significant error rate.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#175
post #6

One thing that I find truly amazing is just the simple fact that you can now be fuzzy with the input you give a computer, and get something meaningful in return. Like, as someone who grew up learning to code in the 90s it always seemed like science fiction that we'd get to a point where you could give a computer some vague human level instructions and get it more or less do what you want.

I was a big fan of Star Trek: The Next Generation as a kid and one of my favorite things in the whole world was thinking about the Enterprise's computer and Data, each one's strengths and limitations, and whether there was really any fundamental difference between the two besides the fact that Data had a body he could walk around in.

The Enterprise computer was (usually) portrayed as fairly close to what we have now with today's "AI": it could synthesize, analyze, and summarize the entirety of Federation knowledge and perform actions on behalf of the user. This is what we are using LLMs for now. In general, the shipboard computer didn't hallucinate except during most of the numerous holodeck episodes. It could rewrite portions of its own code when the plot demanded it.

Data had, in theory, a personality. But that personality was basically, "acting like a pedantic robot." We are told he is able to grow intellectually and acquire skills, but with perfect memory and fine motor control, he can already basically "do" any human endeavor with a few milliseconds of research. Although things involving human emotion (art, comedy, love) he is pretty bad at and has to settle for sampling, distilling, and imitating thousands to millions of examples of human creation. (Not unlike "AI" art of today.)

Side notes about some of the dodgy writing:

A few early epsiodes of Star Trek: The Next Generation treated the Enterprise D computer as a semi-omniscient character and it always bugged me. Because it seemed to "know" things that it shouldn't and draw conclusions that it really shouldn't have been able to. "Hey computer, we're all about to die, solve the plot for us so we make it to next week's episode!" Thankfully someone got the memo and that only happened a few times. Although I always enjoyed episodes that centered around the ship or crew itself somehow instead of just another run-in with aliens.

The writers were always adamant that Data had no emotions (when not fitted with the emotion chip) but we heard him say things _all the time_ that were rooted in emotion, they were just not particularly strong emotions. And he claimed to not grasp humor, but quite often made faces reflecting the mood of the room or indicating he understood jokes made by other crew members.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#176

The argument seems to be that for an expert programmer, who is capable of reading and understanding AI agent code output and merging it into a codebase, AI agents are great. Question: If everyone uses AI to code, how does someone become an expert capable of carefully reading and understanding code and acting as an editor to an AI? The expert skills needed to be an editor -- reading code, understanding its implication…

I'll take the opposite view of most people. Expertise is a bad thing. We should embrace technological changes that render expertise economically irrelevant with open arms.

Take a domain like US taxation. You can certainly become an expert in that, and many people do. Is it a good thing that US taxes are so complicated that we have a market demand for thousands of such experts? Most people would say no.

Don't get my wronf, I've been coding for more years of being alive than I haven't by this point, I love the craft. I still think younger me would have far preferred a world where he could have just had GPT do it all for him so he didn't need to spend his lunch hours poring over the finer points of e.g. Python iterators.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#177
post #97

Yeah, and it’s progressing so fast. Singularity is definitely on the table. Whoever says otherwise should read their own comments from 2 years ago and see how wrong they were about where AI is today. Not saying singularity will happen for sure, but is it a possibility? Hell yeah.

It's not really that different than 2 years ago. Better but not qualitatively so.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#178

>If you were trying and failing to use an LLM for code 6 months ago †, you’re not doing what most serious LLM-assisted coders are doing. Here’s the thing from the skeptic perspective: This statement keeps getting made on a rolling basis. 6 months ago if I wasn’t using the life-changing, newest LLM at the time, I was also doing it wrong and being a luddite. It creates a never ending treadmill of boy-who-cried-LLM. Why…

tptacek wasn't making this argument six months ago.

LLMs get better over time. In doing so they occasionally hit points where things that didn't work start working. "Agentic" coding tools that run commands in a loop hit that point within the past six months.

If your mental model is "people say they got better every six months, therefore I'll never take them seriously because they'll say it again in six months time" you're hurting your own ability to evaluate this (and every other) technology.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#179

The argument seems to be that for an expert programmer, who is capable of reading and understanding AI agent code output and merging it into a codebase, AI agents are great. Question: If everyone uses AI to code, how does someone become an expert capable of carefully reading and understanding code and acting as an editor to an AI? The expert skills needed to be an editor -- reading code, understanding its implication…

Deliberate practice, which may take a form different from productive work.

I believe it's important for students to learn how to write data structures at some point. Red black trees, various heaps, etc. Students should write and understand these, even though almost nobody will ever implement one on the job.

Analogously electrical engineers learn how to use conservation laws and Ohm's law to compute various circuit properties. Professionals use simulation software for this most of the time, but learning the inner workings is important for students.

The same pattern is true of LLMs. Students should learn how to write code, but soon the code will write itself and professionals will be prompting models instead. In 5-10 years none of this will matter though because the models will do nearly everything.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#180

> but the plagiarism This entire section reads like, oddly, the reverse of the "special pleading" argument that I usually see from artists. Instead of "Oh, it's fine for other fields, but for my field it's a horrible plagiarism machine", it's the reverse: "Oh, it's a problem for those other fields, but for my field get over it, you shouldn't care about copyright anyway". I'm all for eliminating copyright. The day I c…

I think where tptacek is right, though, is that if we're going to hold this position without hypocrisy, then we need to respect copyright as long as it exists. He's right that many of us have not done that; it's been very common to violate copyright for mere entertainment. If we want the licenses of our own work to be respected, then we need to extend that respect to others as well, regardless of the size of the copyright holder.
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