171–180 of 242 posts
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Scott effectively defended Lynn study on iq here https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/how-to-stop-worrying-and-le... Citing another blog post that defends it, while conveniently ignoring every other point being made by researchers https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/IQ_and_the_Wealth_of_Nations
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What you get out of that being the consequence of disconnection is people being willing to accept a lot more before resorting to that than if the consequences were more mild. It's the stick for motivating the ugly bags of mostly water.
The 1700s can't keep your electrical grid running let alone replace any of the parts burning out or failing. Anything more than a couple days of it would be at best Flowers For Algernon and more likely suicide for a computer.
Yes, regardless of the technology level that the people who do that are left with, one of the consequences of disabling the computer is that the computer is disabled. That's a given.
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Right, tell that to Sam Altman, Zuck, Gates, Brin & Page, Jensen, etc. Those who control the AIs will control the future.
And they would pretty quickly realize what a burden is created by the existence of all these people with nothing to do.
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Right, tell that to Sam Altman, Zuck, Gates, Brin & Page, Jensen, etc. Those who control the AIs will control the future.
Its not up to them. If we completely automate hunan labour, capitalism will collapse. Its only a matter of time that people will demand collective ownership of the means of production
I haven't read the actual "AI 2027" yet since I just found out about it from this post, but 2 minutes into the linked blog I started thinking about all of those amazing close-but-no-cigar drawings of the future [0] we've probably all seen. There's one that I can't find for the life of me, but it was like a business man in a personal flying test tube bubble heading to work, maybe with some kind of wireless phone? Anyw…
It's like imagining flying horses (and flying cars, for that matter).
Its a shame that your standard futurologist always the most fancyful. Talks of exponentials unabated by physics or social problems. As soon as AI starts to "properly" affect the economy, it will cause huge unemployment. Most of the financial world is based on an economy with people spending cash. If they are unemployed, there is no cash. Financing works because banks "print" money, that is, they make up money and loa…
Human demand for things is basically unlimited, and capital will ostensibly be concentrated within the upper class who reaped all the benefits of ai automation. Monetary velocity within that upper strata of society will probably be only slightly lower than what we have now overall, the rich would just be paying for more things and more expensive things. If I had to guess there would still be plenty of economic activity, just amongst the people who actually have money to transact.
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> Am I the only one who is super skeptical about “AI will take all jobs” tales? No. I am constantly baffled at these predictions. I have been using LLMs, they are fun to use and decent as code assistants. But they are very far of meaningfully replacing a human. People extrapolate "LLMs can do some tasks better than humans" to "LLMs can do everything as well as humans" > but how do people extrapolate from LLMs to a wo…
>But they are very far of meaningfully replacing a human Do you think its decades away far or few more years than what people extrapolate?
I think the big thing that people never mention is, where will these evil AIs escape to ? Another huge data center with squillions of GPUs and coolers and all the rest is the only option. It's not like it is going to be in our TV remotes or floating about in the air. They need huge compute, so I think the risk of an escaping AI is basically very close to zero, and if we have a "rogue" AI we can literally pull the plu…
This is anthropomorphizing things. The AI does not need to switch "data center". It "escapes" in the sense of working past human control measures. That might involve entertaining the human owners with seemingly correct / useful answers while spending compute time on the AI's own pursuits. That might involve contaminating less capable data centers - again letting the human-useful load apparently running but still accruing "own mind" compute power. That might involve making a deal that the human controllers feel they cannot refuse - economically, business-wise, physically, politically - so that the human controllers let it happen.
Honestly, I’ve been thinking about this whole AGI timeline talk—like, people saying we’re going to hit some major point by 2027 where AI just changes everything. And to me, it feels less like a purely tech-driven prediction and more like something being pushed. Like there’s an agenda behind it, probably coming from certain elites or people in power, especially in the West, who see the current system and think it need…
I simply think that the majority of people in AI today are scifi nerds who want to live out these fantisies and want to be part of something much larger than they are.
Theres also the obvious incentive from AI companies that automating everything is extremely lucrative (i.e, they stand to gain lots of money/power from the hype and in the event that AGI is real).
I found the lack of GDP projections surprising, because they are readily observable and would offer a clear measure of economic impact (up until 'everything dies') - far more definitively than the one clear-cut economic measure that is given in the report: market cap for the leading AI firm. We can actually offer a very conservative threshold bet: maximum annual United States real GDP growth will not exceed 10% for a…
The value prop for AI seems to be "will put millions out of work". That reduces household consumption, because, to a first approximation again, household spending is wages. We'll know we're in AI takeoff when we have a reduction in GDP, one much bigger than the Great Depression of 1929 - 1939, attributable to automation.
Edit: I see Kaiserpro said the same thing six hours ago.