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AI in my plasma physics research didn’t go the way I expected

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Re: AI in my plasma physics research didn’t go the way I expected

#171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of these issues you have had are simply user error or not using the right tool for the job.

I work for one very big software company. If this was 'a simple user error' or 'not using the right tool for the job' than this was an error from smart people and it still got fixed by using AI/ML in an instant. With this, my argument still stands even if it would be for a different reason which i personally doubt.

Often big companies are the least efficient. And big companies can still make mistakes or have very inefficient processes. There was already a perfectly simple solution to the issue that could have been utilised prior to this and overall still the most efficient solution.

Also, everyone does dumb things, even smart people do dumb things. I do research in a field that many outsiders would say you must be smart to do (not my view) and every single one of us does dumb shit daily. Anyone who thinks they don't isn't as smart as they think they are.

Re: AI in my plasma physics research didn’t go the way I expected

#172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t remember when NFTs and cryptos helped me draft an email, wrote my meetings minutes for me or allowed me to easily search information previously locked in various documents. I think there is this weird take amongst some on HN where LLMs are either completely revolutionary and making break through or utterly useless. The truth is that they are useful already as a productivity tool.

For now, the reasoning abilities of the best and largest models are somewhat on par with those of a human crackpot with an internet connection, that misunderstands some wild fact or theory and starts to speculate dumb and ridiculous "discoveries". So the real world application to scientific thought is low, because science does not lack imbeciles. But of course, models always improve and they never grow tired (if enou…

I want an idiot to stumble on the low hanging fruits of my meeting minutes.

Re: AI in my plasma physics research didn’t go the way I expected

#173
I'm probably saying something obvious here, but it seems like there's this pre-existing binary going on ("AI will drive amazing advances and change everything!" "You are wrong and a utopian / grifter!") that takes up a lot of oxygen, and it really distracts from the broader question of "given the current state of AI and its current trajectory, how can it be fruitfully used to advance research, and to what's the best way to harness it?"

This is the sort of thing I mean, I guess, by way of close parallel in a pre-AI context. For a while now, I've been doing a lot of private math research. Whether or not I've wasted my time, one thing I've found utterly invaluable has been the OEIS.org website, where you can just enter sequence of numbers and then search for it to see what contexts it shows up in. It's basically a search engine for numerical sequences. And the reason it has been invaluable is that I will often encounter some sequence of integers, I'll be exploring it, and then when I search for it on OEIS, I'll discover that that sequence shows up in much different mathematical contexts. And that will give me an opening to 1) learn some new things and recontextualize what I'm already exploring and 2) give me raw material to ask new questions. Likewise, Wolfram Mathematica has been a godsend. And it's for similar reasons - if I encounter some strange or tricky or complicated integral or infinite sum, it is frequently handy to just toss it into Mathematica, apply some combination of parameter constraints and Expands and FullSimplify's, and see if whatever it is I'm exploring connects, surprisingly, to some unexpected closed form or special function. And, once again, 1) I've learned a ton this way and gotten survey exposure to other fields of math I know much less well, and 2) it's been really helpful in iteratively helping me ask new, pointed questions. Neither OEIS nor Mathematica can just take my hard problems and solve them for me. A lot of this process has been about me identifying and evolving what sorts of problems I even find compelling in the first place. But these resources have been invaluable in helping me broaden what questions I can productively ask, and it's through something more like a high powered, extremely broad, extremely fast search. There's a way that my engagement with these tools has made me a lot smarter and a lot broader-minded, and it's changed the kinds of questions I can productively ask. To make a shaky analogy, books represent a deeply important frozen search of different fields of knowledge, and these tools represent a different style of search, reorganizing knowledge around whatever my current questions are - and acting in a very complementary fashion to books, too, as a way to direct me to books and articles once I have enough context.

Although I haven't spent nearly as much time with it, what I've just described about these other tools certainly is similar to what I've found with AI so far, only AI promises to deliver even more so. As a tool for focused search and reorganization of survey knowledge about an astonishingly broad range of knowledge, it's incredible. I guess I'm trying to name a "broad" rather than "deep" stance here, concerning the obvious benefits I'm finding with AI in the context of certain kinds of research. Or maybe I'm pushing on what I've seen called, over in the land of chess and chess AI, a centaur model - a human still driving, but deeply integrating the AI at all steps of that process.

I've spent a lot of my career as a programmer and game designer working closely with research professors in R1 university settings (in both education and computer science), and I've particularly worked in contexts that required researchers to engage in interdisciplinary work. And they're all smart people (of course), but the silofication of various academic disciplines and specialties is obviously real and pragmatically unavoidable, and it clearly casts a long shadow on what kind of research gets done. No one can know everything, and no one can really even know too much of anything out of their own specialties within their own disciplines - there's simply too much to know. There are a lot of contexts where "deep" is emphasized over "broad" for good reasons. But I think the potential for researchers to cheaply and quickly and silently ask questions outside of their own specializations, to get fast survey level understandings of domains outside of their own expertise, is potentially a huge deal for the kinds of questions they can productively ask.

But, insofar as any of this is true, it's a very different way of harnessing of AI than just taking AI and trying to see if it will produce new solutions to existing, hard, well-defined problems. But who knows, maybe I'm wrong in all of this.

Re: AI in my plasma physics research didn’t go the way I expected

#174
post #2

I am not a AI booster at all, but the fact that negative results are not published and that everyone is overselling their stuff in research papers is unfortunately not limited to AI. This is just a consequence of the way scientists are evaluated and of the scientific publishing industry, which basically suffers from the same shit than traditional media does (craving for audience). Anyway, winter is coming, innit?

Sure, it's not. But often on AI papers one sees remarks that actually mean: "...and if you throw in one zillion GPUs and make them run until the end of time you get {magic_benchmark}". Or "if you evaluate this very smart algo in our super-secret, real-life dataset that we claim is available on request, but we'd ghost you if you dare to ask, then you will see this chart that shows how smart we are". Sure, it is often…

> It's a race over resources, as a (former) researcher on a low-budget university, we just cannot compete. We are coerced to believe whatever figure is passed on in the literature as "benchmark", without possibility of replication.

The central purpose of university research has basically always been that researchers work on hard, foundational topics that are more long-term so that industry is hardly willing to do them. On the other hand, these topics are very important, that is why the respective country is willing to finance this foundational research.

Thus, if you are at a university, once your research topic becomes an arms race with industry, you simply work either at the wrong place (university instead of industry) or on a "wrong" topic in the respective research area (look for some much more long-term, experimental topics that, if you are right, might change the whole research area in, say, 15 years, instead of some high resource-intensive, minor improvements to existing models).

Re: AI in my plasma physics research didn’t go the way I expected

#175
post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is rarely a constructive discussion around the term “AI”. You can’t say anything useful about what it might lead to or how useful it might be, because it is purely a marketing term that does not have a specific meaning (neither do both of the words in its abbreviation). Interesting discussions tend to avoid “AI” in favour of specific terms such as “ML”, “LLM”, “GAN”, “stable diffusion”, “chatbot”, “image genera…

I think AI is a useful term which usually means a neural network architecture but without specifying the exact architecture. I think Machine Learning doesn't mean this as a word, as it can also refer to linear regression, non-linear optimisation, decision trees, bayesian networks etc. That's not saying that AI isn't abused as a term - but I do think a more general term to describe the latest 5 years advancements in n…

The field of neural network research is known as Deep Learning.

Re: AI in my plasma physics research didn’t go the way I expected

#176

Does anybody else find it peculiar that the majority of these articles about AI say things like "of course I don't doubt that AI will lead to major discoveries", and then go on to explain how they aren't useful in any field whatsoever? Where are the AI-driven breakthroughs? Or even the AI-driven incremental improvements? Do they exist anywhere? Or are we just using AI to remix existing general knowledge, while making…

AlphaFold is real. To the extent you care about chess and Go as human activities, progress there is real. there are some other scientific computing problems where AI or neural-network-based methods do appear to be at least part of the actual state-of-the-art (weather forecasting, certain single-molecule quantum chemistry simulations). i would like the hype of the kind described in the article to be punctured, but thi…

I've never seen an AI critic say AI isn't "useful in any field whatsoever". Especially one that is known as an expert in and a critic of the field. There may be names that aren't coming to mind because that stance would reduce their specific credibility. Do you have some in mind?

Re: AI in my plasma physics research didn’t go the way I expected

#177

I'm not sure why people on HN (of all places) are so divided regarding the perception of AI/ML. I have not seen anything like it before. We literaly had not system or way of even doing things like code generation based on text input. Just last week i asked for a script to do image segmentation with a basic UI and claude just generated that for me in under 1 Minute. I could list tons of examples which are groundbreaki…

HN is always divided on "how much is the currently hype-y technology real vs just hype". I've seen this over and over again and been on different sides of the question on different technologies at different times. To me, this is same as it ever was!

I basically agree, but want to point out two major differences to other "hype-y" topics that existed in the past that in my opinion make the whole AI discussions on HN a little bit more controversial than other older hype discussions:

1. The whole investment volume (and thus hope and expectations) into AI is much larger than into other hype topics.

2. Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, was president of YCombinator, the company begind Hacker News, from 2014 to 2019.

Re: AI in my plasma physics research didn’t go the way I expected

#178
post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is rarely a constructive discussion around the term “AI”. You can’t say anything useful about what it might lead to or how useful it might be, because it is purely a marketing term that does not have a specific meaning (neither do both of the words in its abbreviation). Interesting discussions tend to avoid “AI” in favour of specific terms such as “ML”, “LLM”, “GAN”, “stable diffusion”, “chatbot”, “image genera…

I think AI is a useful term which usually means a neural network architecture but without specifying the exact architecture. I think Machine Learning doesn't mean this as a word, as it can also refer to linear regression, non-linear optimisation, decision trees, bayesian networks etc. That's not saying that AI isn't abused as a term - but I do think a more general term to describe the latest 5 years advancements in n…

This is incorrect. Machine Learning is a term that refers to numerical as opposed to symbolic AI. ML is a subset of AI as is Symbolic / Logic / Rule based AI (think expert systems). These are all well established terms in the field. Neural Networks include deep learning and LLMs. Most AI has gone the way of ML lately because of the massive numerical processing capabilities available to those techniques.

AI is not remotely limited to Neural Networks.

Re: AI in my plasma physics research didn’t go the way I expected

#179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We already have breakthroughs. Benchmark results which have been unheard of before ML. Alone language translation got so much better, voice syntesis, voice transcription. All my meetings now are searchable and i can ask 'ai' to summarize my meetings in a relative accurate way impossible before that. Alphafold made a breakthrough in protein folding. Image and Video generation can now do unbelievable things. Realtime v…

Which ai program do you use for live video meeting translation?

MS Teams, Google Meet (whatever they use, probably gemini) and wispher

Re: AI in my plasma physics research didn’t go the way I expected

#180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AlphaFold is real. To the extent you care about chess and Go as human activities, progress there is real. there are some other scientific computing problems where AI or neural-network-based methods do appear to be at least part of the actual state-of-the-art (weather forecasting, certain single-molecule quantum chemistry simulations). i would like the hype of the kind described in the article to be punctured, but thi…

Even more relvant, AlphaEvolve is real. Could easily be brick 1 of self-improvement and the start of the banana zone.

> "the start of the banana zone"

What does this mean? Is it some slang for exponential growth, or is it a reference to something like the "paperclip maximizer"?

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