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Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

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Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#171

Post by [deleted] »

pyrale wrote: post #89
mhogers wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The t-shirt metaphor is completely unjust - there is no value there for national security nor strategic autonomy. Consider instead: - Semiconductor low-end fabrication (Taiwan, Korea) - Basic electronics: circuit boards, USB devices, .. (China) - Auto parts (Mexico, China, Germany) - Generic drugs (India, China) The reality is that the US is not the ultimate global hegemon anymore and therefore offshoring industries…

So basically, you want everyone to depend on you, but you want to depend on no one. And if a more balanced trade relation arises, your current leadership is willing to destabilize the whole world, and threaten war.

[deleted]

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#172

Post by lantry »

SethMurphy wrote: post #63
xuki wrote: post #14

Can someone explain to me how the US can reshore manufacturing without dramatically lower their standard of living? Maybe they can subsidize some essential industries but I can’t see a path to do it for everything.

If the answer is the end of - I'll call it - "Consumerism", and the industries we choose to subsidize are those that are more essential to a community driven life (e.g. food, shelter, health, education, transportation, communication, etc ...), I think it is possible to lower the "Standard of Living" as reshaping what the term means, undoing years of advertisement based conditioning. Americans may no longer have an un…

Not to mention this is almost certainly not what will happen in the USA. Trump and the GOP have no interest in reducing wealth inequality, and the vision you have laid out would be immediately labeled "communism"

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#173

Post by overfeed »

mk89 wrote: post #142
exe34 wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was thinking, the UK and EU should set extra taxes on US tech companies to offset the tariffs. don't even need to fix the amount - just tie it to whatever the tariffs are.

Sure, let's all lose our jobs, who needs them anyways...! But then finally we proved Trump and all those evil Americans a point! *evil laughter... We in EU could do that, if we dared investing in tech.

FWIW: acquiescing and becoming Trump's bitch won't save your jobs either. See Vietnam - they dropped tariffs on the US, and still got hit with the highest American tariffs - even higher than the EU that's threatening to retaliate.

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#174

Post by overfeed »

fakedang wrote: post #120
forgotoldacc wrote: post #13

A long time ago, Britain was the dominant economic power in the world. Britain had a massive trade deficit with India. It imported far more from India than it exported to India. But what Britain did was import massive amounts from India and made high value goods at home and provided high value services that couldn't be provided elsewhere. Should it have flipped the other way? In 1800, should Britain have suddenly shi…

The US does not have most countries in an economic chokehold - it's laughable even compare the US and its partners to India and Britain. India was forced to buy cheaper machine made cloth by the shipload in a concerted effort to kill off the traditional Indian man-powered textile industry. Meanwhile the EU and the rest of USA's trading partners choose to use American services or buy American products (granted, in Eur…

> The US does not have most countries in an economic chokehold

For most of living history, the US went out of it's way to ensure that crude oil is sold in USD, including oil that's extracted in oilfields halfway around the world. There's only one way to get USD is to trade with the US.

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#175

Post by tossandthrow »

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #167
tossandthrow wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same can be said about intellectual work. The question is how post-industrialism wealth redistribution looks like, when work does not seem to be a good key.

>Same can be said about intellectual work. No it can't, not yet anyway.

I would traditionally agree that not today, but actually, probably even today.

But hey, changes take time!

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#176

Post by [deleted] »

sandworm101 wrote: post #147
jocaal wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is the case for western economies. China controls nearly all levels of its supply chain. In the past, they didn't have the skills for design, but over time has gained that skill set (china now creates nearly a third of the worlds new engineers per year) and is now capable of designing and manufacturing world class products all in-house. I guess the only exception is semi-conductors, but we all know they are desp…

And Chinese companies may soon have to evolve too should they want to remain competitive. Being at the behest of a single country is a weakness. A strong company is one that can shift between countries and therefore does not need to bend to their will. The largest Chinese companies will, one day soon, have to step away from Chinese government control.

[deleted]

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#177

Post by rsanek »

It's interesting how similar the Trump plan is to the one Buffett suggests. Clearly it trades simplicity of implementation for flexibility. It seems to me like there are two major differences: doesn't incentivize exporters as much, since they don't receive ICs; and punishes imports from some countries more than others vs. all having the same IC market price applied.

Also interesting to update some of the numbers from the doc. Buffett mentions the $2.5t net foreign ownership vs. $12t in total US stocks in 2003; the values are now $26t vs. $62t.

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#178

Post by rsanek »

dachworker wrote: post #154
franktankbank wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What fucking Americans are you talking about? Sure we got the most billionaires in the world but how many millennials and younger cohorts can't and won't ever afford homes?

You are free to come to Germany. Pretty sure you can get a VISA to do an Ausbildung at the end of which you will be working in some factory or another. Getting a German VISA is much easier than getting an American VISA and Germany is actively advertising abroad to attract workers. That should tell you something, but do come and experience it with your own eyes.

>Getting a German VISA is much easier than getting an American VISA

Based on Münchau's Kaput, this doesn't seem to be the case. Sounds like they are pretty comparable, especially if you're not a refugee.

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#179

Post by zabzonk »

graemep wrote: post #164
zabzonk wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

UK citizen. My latest laptop is an Asus, made in Taiwan. The Intel CPU is designed in the USA I will admit, but manufactured elsewhere, I think.

and none of the many other parts are US manufactured? You can probabl work out where the CPU was made: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Intel_manufacturing_si...

i think the other parts are probably Chinese

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#180

Post by maxglute »

refurb wrote: post #67
randyrand wrote: post #28

The USA captures most of the value from selling iPhones worldwide, but yet the entire value of an iPhone counts only as a Chinese export. Something is not right with how we calculate these things.

That’s not true. Apple has internal transfer pricing which is dictated by accounting regulations and tax law. Companies try and set transfer prices to minimize local taxes, but need to follow regulations. A phone made in China is “purchased” by say Apple Canada for some fraction the price it sells for - regulation usually require the Value to reflect the cost of inputs. So Apple Canada might purchase a phone from App…

Most of that $600 is BOM inputs where most of high end components worth $$$$$ is ultimately captured by US / western suppliers (i.e. chips, sensors, screens for iphones). The actual value of export from PRC in terms of material and labour is $, but still counted as $$$$$+$. Though iphone/high tech unique since US plays hand - sanction $$$$$ PRC components so Apple can't integrate them and raise PRC share of Apple BOM, which IIRC grew to ~20% and on way 40%+ (prc memory + screen) and now <20%. This is something PRC stats has started adjusting for.
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