Earlier quoted context omitted.
Does AI not also automate away repetitive tasks? This seems to be a disingenuous comparison.
AI is strictly worse at automating repetitive tasks than traditional software, because AI output is non-deterministic If a task is repetitive then the output is predictable so it should be automated deterministically, not with fuzzy AI bullshit
Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D
171–180 of 319 posts
Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D
#172Earlier quoted context omitted.
The fact that those robots don't exist :-)
Those robots want to be all your tools, with subscription and expensive maintenance that you can no longer do it yourself. And with the obvious kill switch. From tractors to other things
Having a robot that I don't control that's stronger than me and smarter than me in my house does not sound at all comforting.
Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D
#173Earlier quoted context omitted.
Tell me you never called for a taxi and waited two hours for it only not to show up without telling me. Uber has saved me a remarkable amount of time. More-generally: https://gwern.net/improvement
I have waited hours while Lyft driver after Lyft driver canceled and the algorithm kept picking new drivers.
Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D
#174Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why is “affording a house” the marker of a success? I would say just the opposite. Owning a home decreases mobility and the ability to move to where the jobs are. That being said, the home ownership rate in the US is 65% and almost anyone who wants to go to college can via loans and scholarships. Only around 40% of people in the US have a college education. But that doesn’t mean that the other 60% are homeless and st…
That's a weird non-sequitur you did. > But that doesn’t mean that the other 60% are homeless and starving. No one said starving. I'm saying that the average person is in worse straights than the average person from the 1980s. If your message is 'Maybe not everyone needs a house' then it kinda sounds like you agree with me?
https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1991/demo/sb91-0...
In fact home ownership rate has consistently been in the mid 60s since 1960
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/home-ownership-ra...
In which way is the average person worse? Worse health? Worse life expectancy? More homeless people?
Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D
#175Earlier quoted context omitted.
We do, however, have computer assisted plumbers, electricians, and other technicians. With nothing more than YouTube one can fix appliances and cars, or do some DIY home improvement, and the projects that are possible are much more involved than they were in the old days. It's very hard to pick up these skills from a book, but if there's a video to walk through the process - the projects become possible. AI-assisted…
I have four books that I got from my dad - one for construction and repairs, one for electrical, one for plumbing, and one for landscaping. They’re in simple English with excellent illustrations. Using those books, I’ve been able to fix/improve pretty much everything in my house for ten years.
Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D
#176Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's a weird non-sequitur you did. > But that doesn’t mean that the other 60% are homeless and starving. No one said starving. I'm saying that the average person is in worse straights than the average person from the 1980s. If your message is 'Maybe not everyone needs a house' then it kinda sounds like you agree with me?
The home ownership rate in 1980 was also in the mid 60s… https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1991/demo/sb91-0... In fact home ownership rate has consistently been in the mid 60s since 1960 https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/home-ownership-ra... In which way is the average person worse? Worse health? Worse life expectancy? More homeless people?
People who own a home in 2025 have to pay $350,000ish on a wage of only $66k.
Home prices have gone up dramatically more than wages.
> In which way is the average person worse?
The amount of debt needed to own a home. Which is related to income vs cost-of-home. This ignores the fact that to reach $66k+/year salaries to begin with, you needed tens-of-thousands in student loan debt as well (which the average person in 1980 didn't need).
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1. Costs of education have gone up. It costs more money to be able to get a comfortable salary to begin with in today's world.
2. Younger folk are entering a very high-priced housing market, despite being already saddled with student loan debt (and thus starting off with no savings).
3. The bulk of "starting a new life" costs are car, house, and education. While yes computers and food have gotten cheaper, I would argue that car/house/education costs are the primary gatekeeper into income and/or class mobility.
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For the 40%ish who cannot afford a house, it gets even worse. Rental prices in 1980 were $243/month. Do you want me to run the numbers on how screwed they've gotten? Or do you have the gist yet?
Also remember: 1980 was a recession year with high unemployment and incredible inflation. We're comparing ourselves to the WORST time of stagflation and some of the worst geopolitical crisis of that era.
Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D
#177Earlier quoted context omitted.
The home ownership rate in 1980 was also in the mid 60s… https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1991/demo/sb91-0... In fact home ownership rate has consistently been in the mid 60s since 1960 https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/home-ownership-ra... In which way is the average person worse? Worse health? Worse life expectancy? More homeless people?
People who owned a home in 1980 only had to pay $47k, or roughly 4x average salary. (12513: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/AWI.html ). People who own a home in 2025 have to pay $350,000ish on a wage of only $66k. Home prices have gone up dramatically more than wages. > In which way is the average person worse? The amount of debt needed to own a home. Which is related to income vs cost-of-home. This ignores the fact th…
Even still, somehow, some way, the homeownership rate is the same, people aren’t going homeless and people’s needs are being met. How is that? If people are worse off meeting their Maslow hierarchy of needs?
Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D
#178Earlier quoted context omitted.
People who owned a home in 1980 only had to pay $47k, or roughly 4x average salary. (12513: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/AWI.html ). People who own a home in 2025 have to pay $350,000ish on a wage of only $66k. Home prices have gone up dramatically more than wages. > In which way is the average person worse? The amount of debt needed to own a home. Which is related to income vs cost-of-home. This ignores the fact th…
The average student loan debt is around $40K in the US. Even still, somehow, some way, the homeownership rate is the same, people aren’t going homeless and people’s needs are being met. How is that? If people are worse off meeting their Maslow hierarchy of needs?
Gotcha. I'm glad that I've forced you to ignore my argument rather than addressing the elephant in the room.
The average student loan debt in 1980 was zero because the vast majority of people could get by on free and public high school education btw. Especially if we assume that we're talking about the median income household.
To achieve this equivalent to 1980s lifestyle, we're talking what? $200k extra debt burdens on every average / median person? $40k in student debt and $150k++ in extra housing debt? Plus 4 years lost in education (as 1980s folk could work those 4 years instead). How is this a better or even equivalent life?
Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D
#179Does anyone else find techno-optimism really depressing? I guess one for the more common reason that it’s displacing humanity with technology, but the second reason is just you can’t get excited about a hype that is unlikely to manifest. It feels very ungrounded from tangible benefits to society.
In Europe we have less and less people. Automation is a must have because we will need those people in areas that cannot be automated. Transformation will be painful as it is hard to re-train people or get people to do stuff that is not really their forte.
Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D
#180Earlier quoted context omitted.
AI is strictly worse at automating repetitive tasks than traditional software, because AI output is non-deterministic If a task is repetitive then the output is predictable so it should be automated deterministically, not with fuzzy AI bullshit
LLMs are often worse, yes, but there are decision tree based machine learning models that can learn to be deterministic for classification if your training data accurately reflects the actual problem data.
Like teaching an AI model to learn arithmetic instead of just building a calculator