171–179 of 179 posts
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I honestly prefer that outcome. At least that’d be a reset instead of this infinite downward cycle.
Such resets are sometimes followed by civil wars, economy crashes style "there is no food for tomorrow" and a generational trauma. As the one who has been through it, be careful what you wish for.
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The ROI to USA that it has been the dominant military power for the last decades, combined with the cooling effect of NATO across the globe – i think you can imagine the instability and increase risk of nuclear war without NATO (Japan, South Korea, Europe, etc would acquire nukes without USA guarantees) It has enabled a very stable and predictable world. This has benefited USA immensely. It it not clear to me, that r…
We can't afford to police the whole world. NATO expansionism is one of the causes of the latest conflict in Ukraine. It's not clear to me that unwinding our interventionism around the world is going to make the world more stable. But it is clear to me that we can't afford to keep doing it. China is eating our lunch and they have about 3x as many people as we do. Neither Europe nor the US are producing much, and the e…
Never a better time to throw your allies under the bus.
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I honestly prefer that outcome. At least that’d be a reset instead of this infinite downward cycle.
> I honestly prefer that outcome. At least that’d be a reset instead of this infinite downward cycle. If the USA gets a repeat of the USSR collapse, you're looking at an independent Texas and California (and perhaps Hawaii?) within a few years, 50% GDP loss, proper hyperinflation, infighting over the nuclear arsenal being under federal authority or the authority of whichever state it happened to be physically in at t…
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> I honestly prefer that outcome. At least that’d be a reset instead of this infinite downward cycle. If the USA gets a repeat of the USSR collapse, you're looking at an independent Texas and California (and perhaps Hawaii?) within a few years, 50% GDP loss, proper hyperinflation, infighting over the nuclear arsenal being under federal authority or the authority of whichever state it happened to be physically in at t…
Yeah, but Europe will finally realize their big brother is a dysfunctional alcoholic.
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>> Assuming that anyone in the government still cares. Schneier hits the mark here. Government only works at all if people care. And if you tell someone that their job, and the organisation they work for - are of no value - then those people won't care any more. I don't know what the outcome would be of large swathes of the government either being fired or not caring any more but we're going to find out and I don't t…
Government is a huge ship where everything happens slowly. If you fire all sailors at once, you won't notice the difference immediately. The phantom ship continues to sail. Then engines start to heat up and fail. And if there's an obstacle along the way, it's game over. This is a dangerous game played by morons full of hubris. On June 16 YC organizes an "AI Startup School"; the first speaker is Elon Musk: https://www…
We in the US are about to take a 50 to 90% drop in our standard of living as a result. 8(
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We can't afford to police the whole world. NATO expansionism is one of the causes of the latest conflict in Ukraine. It's not clear to me that unwinding our interventionism around the world is going to make the world more stable. But it is clear to me that we can't afford to keep doing it. China is eating our lunch and they have about 3x as many people as we do. Neither Europe nor the US are producing much, and the e…
>Do you seriously think we can win the inevitable war with China? I believe showing Russia, China, and the world, that USA stands behinds it commitments and allies, defends the rule based world order and is true leader of the democratic society would deter leaders such as Putin and Xi from trying anything. NATO is (imo) close to collapsing. All it would take is a minor just-under-war incursion, e.g. in northern Finla…
>I believe showing Russia, China, and the world, that USA stands behinds it commitments and allies, defends the rule based world order and is true leader of the democratic society would deter leaders such as Putin and Xi from trying anything
Half of the European countries now are anti-democratic, and actively work against the will of their own people. As for "rules-based order" I think we are just the cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry. Don't kid yourself. Our governments have been up to a lot of nefarious things around the world. We don't have a clear moral high ground as the propagandists would have you think. But we're stuck in our own countries for better or worse. We have to do what we can to straighten things out.
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We can't afford to police the whole world. NATO expansionism is one of the causes of the latest conflict in Ukraine. It's not clear to me that unwinding our interventionism around the world is going to make the world more stable. But it is clear to me that we can't afford to keep doing it. China is eating our lunch and they have about 3x as many people as we do. Neither Europe nor the US are producing much, and the e…
> inevitable war with China Never a better time to throw your allies under the bus.
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It's not existenial if you don't have anyone on the other side of the "deal" to offer nuclear strikes in return. So far, it's been the US, but that doesn't seem assured for the future anymore.
It takes decades to build credible second strike or nuclear triad capabilities. A conventional war would be finished well before that. For example, to launch into Russia, Poland and Germany would need Tactical, SR, MR, and LR Ballistic Missiles, but neither state has a ballistic missiles program so they would need to start from scratch or be entirely dependent on France (which the defense industry in both states have…
Launch 3000 drones at once and let one in a thousand carry a nuke.
Not having nukes didn't protect Georgia or Ukraine from war and invasion. This is just more "let's not provoke them". Well, that doesn't work very well, does it? It's time someone pushed back and called their bluff. Because if it's not a bluff we are screwed anyway. In this case, the only way to not lose is to play.