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Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

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Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#171

Post by aaplok »

gfunk911 wrote: post #110
hardwaregeek wrote: post #89

Thinking Basketball is one of my favorite resources for basketball analysis. He recently made a video debunking myths about the modern game [1]. While yes, there’s far more analytics and knowledge in the game, it hasn’t lead to monotony or poor quality. It’s instead resulted in a Cambrian explosion of tactics, counter tactics, and really diverse team strategies. But the commentary and analysis in mainstream basketbal…

I love the modern game. I just think the pendulum has swung a tiny bit too far toward 3s in the past 3-4 years, that's all. Just a nudge in the other direction. My ideal would be to try changing 2s and 3s to 3s and 4s. But that will never happen.

I don't watch basketball, so I am speculating, but isn't this a case where defence hasn't yet adapted to the new attacking strategies? Wouldn't you expect that in a few years teams will be better at defending against 3s, reducing their expected value and therefore swinging the pendulum back towards more 2s?

The Nash equilibrium should be that the expected values of 2s and 3s are equal. If you're off, you would expect a trend toward that equilibrium, possibly with some overcorrection.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#172

Post by bdangubic »

jordanmorgan10 wrote: post #167
bdangubic wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you read the article? where did you see college in it? there is absolutely no sport today that is as predictable as nba. check this next thursday 2/20, boston is playing philly - boston will score between 108 and 125 points - they will attempt between 48 and 58 3's - they will make betwee 19 and 25 of them I can make another 5 of these, they will be true as it is always all the same these days

Yes, I did read the article. If you feel so confident about your predictions and are so sure of the author’s claims, why not put a bet down on that. While you’re at it, do it for “another 5” and let me know how you get on.

betting is a sin, I am not a sinner

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#173

Post by bdangubic »

mooreds wrote: post #155
idlewords wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just fill the ball with water.

What about tying 2 sets of players (one pair on each team) feet together, potato sack relay style?

curry and bol bol are two good candidates. in today’s nba you can’t tell difference between them on the court except for several feet of height difference. but practically same player as they shoot about the same shots

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#174

Post by hardwaregeek »

lapcat wrote: post #169
hardwaregeek wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So I agree that more complexity is not better and there’s a real risk of alienating fans with complicated schemes. But chess has made real inroads by providing good commentators and analysis. You can’t make teams play dumber but you can teach fans to be smarter. As for missing, the video I linked debunks that. 3 pointers are replacing long 2 pointers which also had a low percentage. And in turn, the game has become l…

> As for missing, the video I linked debunks that. 3 pointers are replacing long 2 pointers which also had a low percentage. I'd much rather watch NBA players miss 3's than watch a 23 minute YouTube video of someone talking about missing 3's. ;-) But the NBA FG% in 2025 is 46.5%, while it was 49.1% in 1985, so I'm skeptical that 3 pointers are simply replacing long 2 pointers with equal percentages. Obviously the % w…

That's not a huge difference. 3% is like an average of 3 extra misses, which is probably not even that noticeable with variance. 3 pointers are not replacing 2 pointers with equal percentages, but they are creating opportunities for higher percentage 2 pointers.

> Crowding is not necessarily bad. A contested shot is interesting; an uncontested shot, not so much. Even uncontested dunks are less interesting than contested dunks.

That's because you're thinking of a really cool dunk, not a big man backing down his man for like 20 seconds and throwing up a clanker that gets rebounded into another 20 second post possession. Realistically that's what a lot of offense was like back in the day. There's just selective nostalgia for the really cool plays.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#175

Post by AnimalMuppet »

lapcat wrote: post #169
hardwaregeek wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So I agree that more complexity is not better and there’s a real risk of alienating fans with complicated schemes. But chess has made real inroads by providing good commentators and analysis. You can’t make teams play dumber but you can teach fans to be smarter. As for missing, the video I linked debunks that. 3 pointers are replacing long 2 pointers which also had a low percentage. And in turn, the game has become l…

> As for missing, the video I linked debunks that. 3 pointers are replacing long 2 pointers which also had a low percentage. I'd much rather watch NBA players miss 3's than watch a 23 minute YouTube video of someone talking about missing 3's. ;-) But the NBA FG% in 2025 is 46.5%, while it was 49.1% in 1985, so I'm skeptical that 3 pointers are simply replacing long 2 pointers with equal percentages. Obviously the % w…

I remember seeing part of a game in about 1985. IIRC, it was the Jazz against the Knicks. Utah won, something like 86-82. The Knicks offense was laughably bad. They came down the floor, wound up standing around the perimeter of the key, all five of them, each with a defensive player in front of them. They passed the ball around that perimeter. Nobody moved; they just stood there. Eventually somebody shot.

I know it was late in the game and people were tired. The shooting percentage may have been reasonably high. I don't care. That's terrible offense. And horrifically boring.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#176

Post by ConspiracyFact »

owlninja wrote: post #32
lawgimenez wrote: post #19

I think the NBA needs to focus on how to make more people tune in to the first half of the season. And player’s load management is getting ridiculous.

As a lifelong Mavericks fan, I hope the NBA fails...They've lost me.

My condolences.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#177

Post by trustinmenowpls »

Spooky23 wrote: post #117
atmosx wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my opinion, the real problem with the NBA is that we no longer get the marquee matchups in the Finals that we used to during the 90s and 00s, mainly because the season is too long. An 82-game grind isn’t sustainable - it practically guarantees that stars like Giannis, Luka, or Jokic (or their key teammates) will get injured to the playoffs or not at all. The fact that we’ve never seen Embiid vs. Giannis in the ECF…

It's weird because almost all of the levels below the NBA are better games than the NBA. Nobody really goes out of their way to follow AAA baseball teams, but college basketball and even some high schools are great games. The pet theory is that the NBA is a RNG for gambling now the game isn't really the game. TV is near death, so gambling is the only source of revenue that can possibly replace the big TV deal.

The theory that NBA is all about gambling is very old. My dad mentioned as something that people were talking about when he was as kid in the 60s

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#178

Post by lapcat »

hardwaregeek wrote: post #174
lapcat wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As for missing, the video I linked debunks that. 3 pointers are replacing long 2 pointers which also had a low percentage. I'd much rather watch NBA players miss 3's than watch a 23 minute YouTube video of someone talking about missing 3's. ;-) But the NBA FG% in 2025 is 46.5%, while it was 49.1% in 1985, so I'm skeptical that 3 pointers are simply replacing long 2 pointers with equal percentages. Obviously the % w…

That's not a huge difference. 3% is like an average of 3 extra misses, which is probably not even that noticeable with variance. 3 pointers are not replacing 2 pointers with equal percentages, but they are creating opportunities for higher percentage 2 pointers. > Crowding is not necessarily bad. A contested shot is interesting; an uncontested shot, not so much. Even uncontested dunks are less interesting than contes…

> That's not a huge difference. 3% is like an average of 3 extra misses

More like 5 extra misses per game.

And we're getting more uncontested misses today.

> a big man backing down his man for like 20 seconds and throwing up a clanker that gets rebounded into another 20 second post possession. Realistically that's what a lot of offense was like back in the day.

But this clearly wasn't happening 64% of the time.

The irony is that contemporary players are better shooters. Yet their overall shooting % is lower, because they're consistently taking longer, harder shots.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#179

Post by lapcat »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #175
lapcat wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As for missing, the video I linked debunks that. 3 pointers are replacing long 2 pointers which also had a low percentage. I'd much rather watch NBA players miss 3's than watch a 23 minute YouTube video of someone talking about missing 3's. ;-) But the NBA FG% in 2025 is 46.5%, while it was 49.1% in 1985, so I'm skeptical that 3 pointers are simply replacing long 2 pointers with equal percentages. Obviously the % w…

I remember seeing part of a game in about 1985. IIRC, it was the Jazz against the Knicks. Utah won, something like 86-82. The Knicks offense was laughably bad. They came down the floor, wound up standing around the perimeter of the key, all five of them, each with a defensive player in front of them. They passed the ball around that perimeter. Nobody moved; they just stood there. Eventually somebody shot. I know it w…

> I remember seeing part of a game in about 1985.

Cool story.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#180

Post by pepa65 »

kenjackson wrote: post #163
hardwaregeek wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So I agree that more complexity is not better and there’s a real risk of alienating fans with complicated schemes. But chess has made real inroads by providing good commentators and analysis. You can’t make teams play dumber but you can teach fans to be smarter. As for missing, the video I linked debunks that. 3 pointers are replacing long 2 pointers which also had a low percentage. And in turn, the game has become l…

Thinking Basketball is great. The people who complain about the 3s in basketball probably didn’t watch the NBA in the older days. Horrible defense and far less skill — and that’s the era I grew up and loved. I have two major complaints about the game nowadays: (1) intentional fouling to get an advantage. It’s the only major sport where fouling can often work to your advantage. (2) The block call is so inconsistent it…

Completely agree, but I would add the incessant need for counting, 3 seconds, 8 seconds, 24 seconds. But the current fouling situation really needs to be fixed urgently.
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