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Firing programmers for AI is a mistake

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Re: Firing programmers for AI is a mistake

#171

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

chubot wrote: post #140
jvanderbot wrote: post #122

What evidence do we have that AI is actually replacing programmers already? The article treats messaging on this as a forgone conclusion, but I strongly suspect it's all hype-cycle BS to cover layoffs, or a misreading of "Meta pivots to AI" headlines.

We'll probably never have evidence either way ... Did Google and Stack Overflow "replace" programmers? Yes, in the sense that I suspect that with the strict counterfactual -- taking them AWAY -- you would have to hire 21 people instead of 20, or 25 instead of 20, to do the same job. So strictly speaking, you could fire a bunch of people with the new tools. --- But in the same period, the industry expanded rapidly, an…

Google Coding is definitely a real problem. And I can't believe how wrong some of the answers on Stack Overflow are.

But the real problems are managerial. Stonks must go up, and if that means chasing a ridiculous fantasy of replacing your workforce with LLMs then let's do that!!!!111!!

It's all fun and games until you realise you can't run a consumer economy without consumers.

Maybe the CEOs have decided they don't need workers or consumers any more. They're too busy marching into a bold future of AI and robot factories.

Good luck with that.

If there's anyone around a century from now trying to make sense of what's happening today, it's going to look like a collective psychotic episode to them.

Re: Firing programmers for AI is a mistake

#172

Post by goosejuice »

An agent would be able to replace sales, marketing, customer success, middle management and project managers much better and earlier than any developer of a software company.

Nocode and Shopify-like consolidation are/have been much bigger threats imo. These large orgs are just trimming fat that they would have trimmed anyways.

But hell what do I know. Probably nothing :)

Re: Firing programmers for AI is a mistake

#173

Post by scarface_74 »

icepat wrote: post #142
SirFatty wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Zuckerberg said it. https://www.inc.com/kit-eaton/mark-zuckerberg-plans-to-repla...

Zuckerberg, as always, is well known for making excellent business decisions that lead to greater sector buy in. The Metaverse is going great.

On the other hand, Instagram has been called one of the greatest acquisitions of all time only below the Apple/Next acquisition.

Re: Firing programmers for AI is a mistake

#175

Post by Mainsail »

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #124
osigurdson wrote: post #116

It seems that a lot of companies are skating where they hope the puck to go instead of hedging their bets for an uncertain future. Personally I would at least wait until the big AI players fire everyone before doing the same.

They are skating where bleachers full of hype men are screaming that the puck will go.

Sounds a whole lot like the Leafs in the playoffs.

(Sorry, I had to)

Re: Firing programmers for AI is a mistake

#176

Post by Madmallard »

nerder92 wrote: post #155

This article is entirely built on 2 big and wrong assumptions: 1. AI code ability will be the same as is today 2. Companies will replace people for AI en masse at a given moment in time Of course both these assumptions are wrong, the quality of code produced by AI will improve dramatically as model evolves. And is not even just the model itself. The tooling, the Agentic capabilities and workflow will entirely change…

What makes you think (1) will be true?

It is only generating based on training data. In mature code bases there is a massive amount of interconnected state that is not already present in any github repository. The new logic you'd want to add is likely something never done before. As other programmers have stated, it seems to be improving at generating useful boilerplate and making simple websites and such related to what's out there en masse on Github. But it can't make any meaningful changes in an extensively matured codebase. Even Claude Sonnet is absolutely hopeless at this. And the requirement before the codebase is "matured" is not very high.

Re: Firing programmers for AI is a mistake

#177

Post by causal »

nerder92 wrote: post #155

This article is entirely built on 2 big and wrong assumptions: 1. AI code ability will be the same as is today 2. Companies will replace people for AI en masse at a given moment in time Of course both these assumptions are wrong, the quality of code produced by AI will improve dramatically as model evolves. And is not even just the model itself. The tooling, the Agentic capabilities and workflow will entirely change…

Not to mention I haven't really seen AI replace anyone, except perhaps as a scapegoat for execs who were planning on layoffs anyway.

That said, I do think there is real risk of letting AI hinder the growth of Junior dev talent.

Re: Firing programmers for AI is a mistake

#178

Post by pjmlp »

dham wrote: post #144

There's such a huge disconnect between people reading headlines and developers who are actually trying to use AI day to day in good faith. We know what it is good at and what it's not. It's incredibly far away from doing any significant change in a mature codebase. In fact I've become so bearish on the technology trying to use it for this, I'm thinking there's going to have to be some other breakthrough or something…

You missed the companies selling AI consulting projects, with the disconnect between sales team, customer, folks on the customer side, consultants doing the delivery, and what actually gets done.

Re: Firing programmers for AI is a mistake

#179

Post by falcor84 »

lawlessone wrote: post #165
dham wrote: post #144

There's such a huge disconnect between people reading headlines and developers who are actually trying to use AI day to day in good faith. We know what it is good at and what it's not. It's incredibly far away from doing any significant change in a mature codebase. In fact I've become so bearish on the technology trying to use it for this, I'm thinking there's going to have to be some other breakthrough or something…

Same, LLMs are interesting but on their own are a dead end. I think something needs to actually experience the world in 3d in real time to understand what it is actually coding things or doing tasks for.

> LLMs are interesting but on their own are a dead end.

I don't think that anyone is advocating for LLMs to be used "on their own". Isn't it like saying that airplanes are useless "on their own" in 1910, before people had a chance to figure out proper runways and ATC towers?

Re: Firing programmers for AI is a mistake

#180

Post by causal »

SirFatty wrote: post #136
jvanderbot wrote: post #122

What evidence do we have that AI is actually replacing programmers already? The article treats messaging on this as a forgone conclusion, but I strongly suspect it's all hype-cycle BS to cover layoffs, or a misreading of "Meta pivots to AI" headlines.

Zuckerberg said it. https://www.inc.com/kit-eaton/mark-zuckerberg-plans-to-repla...

Planning to and succeeding at are very different things
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