171–180 of 185 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Democratic USA must prevail against Communist China by having better models. edit: (Please read this in a sarcastic voice, I think it's a crazy idea!)
otherwise it will become to a multipolar world(or 'bipolar', said the article) that would be horrible, a multipolar world? what a nightmare
Dario certainly had no qualms about working with authoritarian regimes when he worked for Baidu! Also, if the US seeks a permanent advantage over China by 2027 with self-replicating AI, so much so that it can dictate whatever terms militarily. Wouldn't that just force China to send a few cruise missiles to TSMC before that happen?
Maybe it's worth listening to a Western AI researcher who worked for a Chinese company and came to the conclusion "China must not beat us to AGI/ASI".
It's shortsighted to believe that export controls are relevant. China will be able to manufacture as good or better chips than the US in the not too distant future anyway.
China only has to attack Taiwan to deny the US of TSMC’s production capacity. Prediction: they will do this as soon as they see sufficient domestic chip production. The attempts to inshore fabs to the USA is too little too late. And it doesn’t matter if Trump defends Taiwan and makes China back down - the fabs will have been bombed to bits. As it is, trump would probably just do sanctions and tariffs, which - like Ru…
Clearly china could last longer under similar conditions, but they're also looking weaker than they did 5 years ago.
I like a lot of what Dario writes, but in this case I just can't follow the reasoning. Everything I've picked up about how DeepSeek did what they did (including going a level lower than CUDA to better take advantage of the limited hardware[1], and the balance of techniques used[2]) points to some very smart Chinese engineers having out-smarted US ones (to put it in terms that matter to US folk, because I'm European a…
yeh. I see Dario saying "let's protect the US more" for no reason other than bias and "of course they improved over time" which feels like a mighty strong strain of copium. Very disappointing for a leader of an organization i respected. Assuming he speaks for Anthropic, and it seems he does, Past tense.
"To be clear, the goal here is not to deny China or any other authoritarian country the immense benefits in science, medicine, quality of life, etc. that come from very powerful AI systems. Everyone should be able to benefit from AI. The goal is to prevent them from gaining military dominance."
Unless the author makes a compelling case about why AI breaks the MAD status-quo between nuclear powers, I will assume that their appeals to NATSEC are an attempt to artificially create moat for their company.
What an incredible claim to just slip in two-thirds of the way through! Where have I heard it before?
1965, H. A. Simon: "Machines will be capable, within twenty years, of doing any work a man can do."
Earlier quoted context omitted.
China only has to attack Taiwan to deny the US of TSMC’s production capacity. Prediction: they will do this as soon as they see sufficient domestic chip production. The attempts to inshore fabs to the USA is too little too late. And it doesn’t matter if Trump defends Taiwan and makes China back down - the fabs will have been bombed to bits. As it is, trump would probably just do sanctions and tariffs, which - like Ru…
> And it doesn’t matter if Trump defends Taiwan and makes China back down - the fabs will have been bombed to bits. What would prevent the US from directly attacking China's domestic fabs in this scenario? Defending Taiwan doesn't seem as proxy-ish as Ukraine considering China considers it their territory already.
Both mainland and Taiwan belong to China, it's written even in the Taiwanese constitution. The controversy is in the definition of China, basically they are supposed to unify mainland while the mainland wants to unify them. A balance will be reached at some point either peacefully or violently.
Peace is more likely if the US stops pouring oil on fire.
The US should stay out of this situation if its leadership has its own people's interest in mind. A hot war between US and China will cause many millions to die and possibly end of human civilization. Let that sink in.
Excellent analysis and I largely agree. The part where he looses me here is the certainty in the claim around fundamental changes to the economics...
This is open weights with a (largely) open recipe. Arguably, Meta has already been at it but now there are two labs producing frontier models at this level. A wishful analysis could imagine that there _might_ be more and that _could_ result in a qualitative shift in how the frontier model research is being done and hence affect the economics but Dario seems to have largely ignored this aspect.
Not sure why?
And then there goes the usual techno-feudal interjection:
>If China can't get millions of chips, we'll (at least temporarily) live in a unipolar world, where only the US and its allies have these models. It's unclear whether the unipolar world will last, but there's at least the possibility that, but there's at least the possibility that, because AI systems can eventually help make even smarter AI systems, a temporary lead could be parlayed into a durable advantage
So Dario envisions a unipolar world where a black box corporation (his own one, of course) controls a perpetually self-improving machine god and distributes scraps to the masses that are too unwashed and dangerous to control it themselves, while at the same time preventing other countries from breaking out and making their own self-improving machine god because they're evil. A boot stomping on your face forever, regardless of who you are.
That's coming from an "ethical, helpful, and honest" guy.
>To be clear, the goal here is not to deny China or any other authoritarian country the immense benefits in science, medicine, quality of life, etc. that come from very powerful AI systems. Everyone should be able to benefit from AI. The goal is to prevent them from gaining military dominance.
And of course he immediately tries to deny that thought.