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Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

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Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#171

Post by iepathos »

nsoonhui wrote: post #13

I find that the gushing around deepseek is fascinating to watch. To me there are a few structural and fundamental reasons why deepseek can never outperform other models by a wide margin. On par maybe--as we reach the diminishing returns with our investment in the models, but not win by a wide margin. 1. The US trade war with china which will place deepseek compute availability at disadvantages, eventually, if we ever…

I find the open source argument pretty weak. Linux is open source but is more used in production than windows, macos, or any other operating system by far and very arguably out-performs them. The very nature of being open source does not mean proprietary alternatives pick up all the benefits and being open source it is free and easily moddable which appeals to many of the best engineers who can drive the innovation further than proprietary alternatives. Proprietary alternatives don't necessarily have the resources or desire to adapt innovations from open source tech for their own solutions.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#172

Post by daveguy »

sangnoir wrote: post #166
daveguy wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You literally called the logistics hubs of the US military -- the bases that move more of the most powerful weapons and military personnel in the world -- indefensible. So you either don't know what indefensible means, or you are a piss poor propagandist.

Yes or No: Can the US singlehandedly defend all those bases without the help of host country? If the answer is "Yes", then China has a long way to go to achieve that capability. If answer is "No", then the bar is much lower, and gp's point is that China can "buy" similar arrangements without too much effort. More directly, is the bottleneck on funding, personnel/matiriel, or diplomacy? China is building up a lot of s…

Fair enough. But could any country attack all of those bases at once? As long as the US doesn't do anything as colossally stupid as leaving NATO it shouldn't be a problem with support. Ultimately NATO participation resides with Congress which is beholden to the people. NATO is overwhelmingly approved of by the US people -- it is a defense pact.

If a country or coalition decided to attack all of those bases at once it would give the US the high ground to respond. Nazis tried a blitzkrieg and that didn't turn out well. As someone squarely against the bullshit of Trump, I would not be happy if he was in power at the time. But I do not doubt for a second that the US population in general would respond as readily as they did after 9/11 (but hopefully not as readily as in Iraq).

We just saw how the "dipshit in power" aspect works with Netanyahu in Gaza -- a disproportionate and tragic response. The only caveat is Trump is an extremely stupid dipshit, so I genuinely hope it doesn't turn out that way and everyone keeps their powder dry until Trump is out of office.

China's buildup of soft power is good for them, and I commend them for it. Fortunately, I believe soft power is a defensive power at its core, and I don't think it translates to offensive power. To confuse the two would be a mistake.

Thank you for the opportunity to get a lot off my chest this New Year's Eve. I hope it wasn't too offensive, because I believe you responded intelligently and in good faith, and thank you for that.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#173

Post by daveguy »

bpodgursky wrote: post #167
daveguy wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You literally called the logistics hubs of the US military -- the bases that move more of the most powerful weapons and military personnel in the world -- indefensible. So you either don't know what indefensible means, or you are a piss poor propagandist.

Yes, it is very easy for a logistic hub that only has an airlift wing to be indefensible in a war against a peer adversary if for example there are no THAAD or Patriot batteries there. It's hub, not a hardened facility. Many of the US military bases are communication centers or barracks on training bases. They serve important roles but are not "defensible" in many contexts. Who am I even propagandizing for in this co…

[flagged]

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#174

Post by paxys »

amelius wrote: post #158
waldrews wrote: post #156

To this day, asking Deepseek "what model are you" typically gives the answer "I'm an AI language model called ChatGPT, created by OpenAI. Specifically, I'm based on the GPT-4 architecture, which is designed to understand and generate human-like text based on the input I receive. My training data includes a wide range of information up until October 2023, and I can assist with answering questions, generating text, and…

I'm sure OpenAI breaches copyright just as well. They are just a little bit better at hiding it.

OpenAI's stance is "any data we can get our hands on is fair use for AI training". They aren't hiding anything.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#175

Post by talldayo »

jurli wrote: post #164
Etheryte wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know, I've been hearing the story that China is about to upend the US as the leading global superpower ever since I was a kid. There's always a new vogue and novel twist put on the rationale and how it's gonna happen, but so far it's like fusion, always a few years away.

It's literally happening lol. When you were a kid China was making shoes and their GDP is 10% of the US. Now they're making drones / evs / high end electornics and it's 80%. This is why people's perception is so unreliable because it's impossible to notice things when they happen over a lifetime

When I was a kid, China was a lot better integrated with the international community. Right now their relationships are far and few between, rarely featuring first-world nations.

If Russia couldn't beat NATO in a pitched fight against the rest of the world, neither can China.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#176

Post by paxys »

x_may wrote: post #138
timtom123 wrote: post #102

So much spam around this model. LocalLLaMA is stuffed with spam posts and even hacker news is getting spammed. Who has actually ran this model and verified performance? Does anyone know of a decent review from a trustworthy source?

The LMSYS leaderboards are crowdsourced and would be hard to fake, it showing a pretty strong performance in terms of human preference.

Crowdsourced data is the easiest to fake unless you can somehow ensure that you have a completely unbiased population (which is impossible). There's a reason why certain models do so well on upvote-based leaderboards but rank nowhere on objective tests.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#177

Post by manquer »

zitterbewegung wrote: post #139
lomkju wrote: post #6

I feel the GPU restrictions created an environment for Chinese Devs to be more innovative and do more with less. Kudos to the deepseek team!

If you actually believe that NVIDA gpus are import restricted there are many stories that this is being sidestepped.

Not to the volume needed to compete with the training infrastructure setups of Anthropic or OpenAI or other leading players

No ban is perfect, there is always some loopholes or illegal exports this is to be expected, but if it prevents large scale transaction then it it is achieved its goal.

The question is rather do they we need a lot of gpus to train or training with older gen gpus is not competitive is a different problem.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#178

Post by coliveira »

mike_hearn wrote: post #30
nsoonhui wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But like I said, deepseek is open source so why can't the competitors copy whatever source that makes the cost of production 10x cheaper ?

You have to distinguish between the current model and DeepSeek the company. DeepSeek the company can do an OpenAI and stop releasing their weights any time they like. The knowledge and skill is retained. I really wonder how long the current era of giving models away for free can last. How is this sensible from a business perspective? Facebook got burned by iOS and now engage in what would otherwise look like irration…

If they're smart, and of course they are, they're not releasing the latest they have. They're releasing something enough to show everyone that they're at parity or better compared to OpenAI. I imagine they already have internal models that exceed the open source one, so there's no real advantage in copying what they released.

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#179

Post by joshbaptiste »

talldayo wrote: post #175
jurli wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's literally happening lol. When you were a kid China was making shoes and their GDP is 10% of the US. Now they're making drones / evs / high end electornics and it's 80%. This is why people's perception is so unreliable because it's impossible to notice things when they happen over a lifetime

When I was a kid, China was a lot better integrated with the international community. Right now their relationships are far and few between, rarely featuring first-world nations. If Russia couldn't beat NATO in a pitched fight against the rest of the world, neither can China.

As a sovereign nation rises in power you'll notice how it slowly starts losing favor from USA

Re: Deepseek: The quiet giant leading China’s AI race

#180

Post by manquer »

nsoonhui wrote: post #13

I find that the gushing around deepseek is fascinating to watch. To me there are a few structural and fundamental reasons why deepseek can never outperform other models by a wide margin. On par maybe--as we reach the diminishing returns with our investment in the models, but not win by a wide margin. 1. The US trade war with china which will place deepseek compute availability at disadvantages, eventually, if we ever…

I don't see real justification for a ban in the first place.

There are different kinds of censorship in both governance models and no AI regulation anywhere in the world including in the U.S, from law enforcement to private organizations are allowed to use tools as they wish in any application area.

Corporate censorship is real and quite heavy in US, starting from how copyright is enforced with flawed DMCA process , and custom automated systems with no penalties for abusers like with Youtube or section 230 or various censorship bills ostensibly to protect children etc

On top of that organizations will self censor in the fear of regulation(loose 230 immunity for example) or being dropped by partners who are oligopolies (VISA/MasterCard for example).

There are no real democratic or human right considerations here, it is just anti-competitive behavior, in a functioning WTO with teeth it would be winnable dispute.

For anyone thinking it it is unfair comparison or whataboutism or the censorship is not problematic, the amount of questions any of the major American models will not respond should tell you otherwise

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