Earlier quoted context omitted.
SF topography means some places like the Mission and Dogpatch can have severe floods and the rest be fine.
[flagged]
Google some tsumani simulations of the west coast. Prepare to be surprised.
Tsunami Warning for Northern California
171–177 of 177 posts
Re: Tsunami Warning for Northern California
#172Earlier quoted context omitted.
Doesn't any earthquake, regardless of fault type increase the immediate risk of a submarine landslide? There are many steep canyons on the Pacific coast, and here is just one example of mass casualties from a tsunami resulting from a submarine landslide triggered by a strike-slip fault earthquake: Caltech, 2018[1]: "Contrary to Previous Belief, Strike-Slip Faults Can Generate Large Tsunamis" [1] https://www.caltech.e…
Yes, the probability of tsunamogenic landslides do increase during earthquakes, but it's still quite unlikely for an event of this magnitude tens of km from the continental slope; this is why a properly-calibrated tiered system would be better. The reason that the Palu event is so notable is precisely because it's uncommon. It's also a very different system: the causative fault is running along the axis of a shallow…
> Yes, the probability of tsunamogenic landslides do increase during earthquakes, but it's still quite unlikely for an event of this magnitude tens of km from the continental slope; this is why a properly-calibrated tiered system would be better
There is a tiered system, its calibrated based on a combination of magnitude and warning time for the initial alerts (updated notices are based on other measurements and observations, but if gathering and analyzing observations before an initial warning doesn't leave time to act on it, it doesn't matter how accurate the warning is.)
Re: Tsunami Warning for Northern California
#173They should really name these like storms/tornados: "warning" means there is actually a tsunami, "watch" means there might be a tsunami. The map showed the warning extending to >1000ft elevation. That is a little over the top.
The problem is that the proper response to a tornado is very different than that of a tsunami. In the case of a tornado, everyone moves to an interior room of a well built structure. A tornado warning means keep on an eye on the sky. In the case of a tsunami, thousands of people may need to evacuate many miles away. Expected landfall of any tsunami was something like 20 minutes after this earthquake so they can't exa…
You issue a watch and people can make their own decision. You issue a warning, and everyone learns that you should ignore warnings.
Re: Tsunami Warning for Northern California
#174Based on the location and focal mechanism of the earthquake ( https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/nc75095651... ), this is a strike-slip earthquake on the plate boundary between the Pacific and Gorda/Juan de Fuca plates. Strike-slip earthquakes occur when two plates slide beside each other during an earthquake, usually along a steeply-dipping if not vertical fault. These kinds of earthquakes almost neve…
Looking at https://tsunami.gov/ , it seems like they do have a 4 tier system, but they jumped straight to the highest tier in this case?
Based on the travel time map, and that the earthquake event was just 45 mi SW of Eureka, CA (and potentially closer to the coastline elsewhere), it seems that jumping straight to Tsunami Warning is the most appropriate messaging, given that the expected time to impact is quite short?
https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PAAQ/2024/12/05/so1aq0/1/WEAK...
(Some of my job requires me to deal with natural disaster public warnings; but not tsunami specifically)
(I'm late to the party. The warning has since been cancelled: https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/california-earthquakes-tsuna...)
Re: Tsunami Warning for Northern California
#175Based on the location and focal mechanism of the earthquake ( https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/nc75095651... ), this is a strike-slip earthquake on the plate boundary between the Pacific and Gorda/Juan de Fuca plates. Strike-slip earthquakes occur when two plates slide beside each other during an earthquake, usually along a steeply-dipping if not vertical fault. These kinds of earthquakes almost neve…
Totally off topic, but is your name a reference to the Cossatot River in Arkansas? If so, fantastic choice.
Re: Tsunami Warning for Northern California
#176Earlier quoted context omitted.
lets pack this altogether. so you don't believe it would save lives? prevention is better than a cure and with AGI this would significantly a lot of people, not just SF. > smart people have already been working on, If they were so smart why haven't they found it yet? We now have weather prediction and protein folding now solved problems which were extremely difficult problems. I don't see how this doesn't apply to ea…
I think it's unlikely having better earthquake prediction would save lives in an economically justifiable way. Neither weather prediction or protein folding are solved problems; that's the press misrepresenting the advances here.
I wouldn't have expected Google DeepMind, Science or Nature to be part of the press and of course they are misrepresenting advances in protein folding and super accurate weather prediction with little to no case studies or breakthroughs in this area which are better than what humans can do.
https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/gencast-predicts-weath...
https://deepmind.google/technologies/alphafold/
https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/gencast-predicts-weath...
https://www.science.org/stoken/author-tokens/ST-1550/full
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08252-9
But whatever you say.
Re: Tsunami Warning for Northern California
#177Based on the location and focal mechanism of the earthquake ( https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/nc75095651... ), this is a strike-slip earthquake on the plate boundary between the Pacific and Gorda/Juan de Fuca plates. Strike-slip earthquakes occur when two plates slide beside each other during an earthquake, usually along a steeply-dipping if not vertical fault. These kinds of earthquakes almost neve…
Totally off topic, but is your name a reference to the Cossatot River in Arkansas? If so, fantastic choice.
Yes, it's a big one in my formative years as a kayaker. I've used the handle in a lot of places and I think you're the first person that's recognized it.