Live data from Hacker News

OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

bloomberg.com

171–180 of 622 posts

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#171

> The AGI bubble is bursting a little bit I'm surprised that any of these companies consider what they are working on to be Artificial General Intelligences. I'm probably wrong, but my impression was AGI meant the AI is self aware like a human. An LLM hardly seems like something that will lead to self-awareness.

I thought maybe they were on the right track until I read Attention Is All You Need. Nah, at best we found a way to make one part of a collection of systems that will, together, do something like thinking. Thinking isn’t part of what this current approach does. What’s most surprising about modern LLMs is that it turns out there is so much information statistically encoded in the structure of our writing that we can u…

> think or actually “understand” anything

It doesn't matter if that's happening or not. That's the whole point of the Chinese room - if it can look like it's understanding, it's indistinguishable from actually understanding. This applies to humans too. I'd say most of our regular social communication is done in a habitual intuitive way without understanding what or why we're communicating. Especially the subtle information conveyed in body language, tone of voice, etc. That stuff's pretty automatic to the point that people have trouble controlling it if they try. People get into conflicts where neither person understands where they disagree but they have emotions telling them "other person is being bad". Maybe we have a second consciousness we can't experience and which truly understands what it's doing while our conscious mind just uses the results from that, but maybe we don't and it still works anyway.

Educators have figured this out. They don't test students' understanding of concepts, but rather their ability to apply or communicate them. You see this in school curricula with wording like "use concept X" rather than "understand concept X".

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I've started to realize that many people have been holding on of building things waiting for "that next big update" I’ve noticed this too — I’ve been calling it intellectual deflation. By analogy, why spend now when it may be cheaper in a month? Why do the work now, when it will be easier in a month?

Why optimise software today, when tomorrow Intel will release CPU with 2x performance?

Curiously, Moore's law was predictable enough over decades that you could actually plan for the speed of next year's hardware quite reliably.

For LLMs, we don't even know how to reliably measure performance, much less plan for expected improvements.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I've started to realize that many people have been holding on of building things waiting for "that next big update" I’ve noticed this too — I’ve been calling it intellectual deflation. By analogy, why spend now when it may be cheaper in a month? Why do the work now, when it will be easier in a month?

Why optimise software today, when tomorrow Intel will release CPU with 2x performance?

Call Nvidia, that sounds like a job for AI.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#174
post #115

Question for the group here: do we honestly feel like we've exhausted the options for delivering value on top of the current generation of LLMs? I lead a team exploring cutting edge LLM applications and end-user features. It's my intuition from experience that we have a LONG way to go. GPT-4o / Claude 3.5 are the go-to models for my team. Every combination of technical investment + LLMs yields a new list of potential…

I think you're playing a different game than the Sam Altmans of the world. The level of investment and profit they are looking for can only be justified by creating AGI. The > 100 P/E ratios we are already seeing can't be justified by something as quotidian as the exceptionally good productivity tools you're talking about.

Yeah I keep thinking this - how is Nvidia worth $3.5Trillion for making code autocomplete for coders

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#175
Every negative headline I see about AI hitting a wall or being over-hyped makes me think of the early 2000's with that new thing the 'internet' (yes, I know the internet is a lot older than that). There is little doubt in my mind that ten years from now nearly every aspect of life will be deeply connected to AI just like the internet took over everything in the late 90's and early 2000's and is now deeply connected to everything now. I'd even hazard to say that AI could be more impactful.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once we've scraped the internet of its data, we need more data. Robots can take in video/audio data 24/7 and can be placed in your house to record this data by offering services like cooking/cleaning/folding laundry. Yeah, I'll pay $20k to have you record everything that happens in my house if I can stop doing dishes for five years!

There's plenty of video content being uploaded and streamed everyday, i find it hard to believe the more data will really change something, excluding very specialized tasks.

The difference with the bot is that there is a fast feedback loop between action and content. No tagging required, real physics is the playground.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#177

> The AGI bubble is bursting a little bit I'm surprised that any of these companies consider what they are working on to be Artificial General Intelligences. I'm probably wrong, but my impression was AGI meant the AI is self aware like a human. An LLM hardly seems like something that will lead to self-awareness.

Looking at LLMs and thinking they will lead to AGI is like looking at a guy wearing a chicken suit and making clucking noises and thinking you’re witnessing the invention of the airplane.

It's more like looking at grided paper and thinking that defining some rules of when a square turns black or white would result in complex structures that move and reproduce on their own.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conway%27s_Game_of_Life

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#178

A few important things to remember here: The best engineering minds have been focused on scaling transformer pre and post training for the last three years because they had good reason to believe it would work, and it has up until now. Progress has been measured against benchmarks which are / were largely solvable with scale. There is another emerging paradigm which is still small(er) scale but showing remarkable res…

> that does not mean that there arn't giant shocking leaps forward coming from slightly different directions. Nor does it mean that there are! We've gotten into this habit of assuming that we're owed giant shocking leaps forward every year or so, and this wave of AI startups raised money accordingly, but that's never how any innovation has worked. We've always followed the same pattern: there's a breakthrough which c…

[deleted]

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're playing a different game than the Sam Altmans of the world. The level of investment and profit they are looking for can only be justified by creating AGI. The > 100 P/E ratios we are already seeing can't be justified by something as quotidian as the exceptionally good productivity tools you're talking about.

Yeah I keep thinking this - how is Nvidia worth $3.5Trillion for making code autocomplete for coders

Nvidia was not the best example. They get to moon in the case that any AI exponential hits. Most others have less of a wide probability distribution.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#180
post #53

I think Meta will have upper hand soon with the release of their glasses. If they managed to make it a daily use glass, and paid users to record and share their life, then they will have data no one else has now. Mix of vision, audio, and physics.

The moment the insta-glasses expand beyond a few dorks is the moment I start wearing a balaclava everywhere I go.
Post reply on HN