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Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

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Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#171

Post by Brybry »

dagenleg wrote: post #161
powerapple wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hong Kong was set as an example how Taiwan can be integrated as a separate economy, separate government and separate everything as long as it is part of China. The reason why it happened in Hong Kong was that the political movement was out of control, you have some members of the parliament saying "fuck China" when they swear to service during the ceremony. It is more about how Hong Kong sees China, not how China see…

This is straight up the official CCP party line you're repeating here. How Chinese people are somehow uniquely unsuited for democracy. The "multiparty democracy system in Taiwan is not seen as a positive thing" by whom? The Taiwanese? The election results from that country have shown quite the opposite.

Because I was curious I looked up some election numbers.

Taiwan's population is ~23.4 million.

In 2020 there were ~19.3 million registered voters with 74.9% turnout. [1]

In 2024 there were ~19.5 million registered voters with 71.86% turnout. [2]

Note that voter registration appears to be automatic[3] so I believe turnout also represents the percentage of all people 20 years and older who voted.

[1] https://www.cec.gov.tw/english/cms/pe/32471

[2] https://www.cec.gov.tw/english/cms/pe/41582

[3] https://web.cec.gov.tw/english/cms/FAQS/26147

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#172

Post by akira2501 »

godelski wrote: post #168
akira2501 wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They'll be disassembled and studied.

They could get fully operating machines and that's not enough to make them the global chip leader overnight, or even in a decade. Analogously, the reason AMD is trailing Nvidia isn't just about hardware... There's many factors at play and this is true for TSMC as well

There are people who are worried about the economic market. Others are worried about the military impact. Them being a "global chip leader" isn't the problem.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#173

Post by actionfromafar »

dobin wrote: post #116
chii wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there's less incentive for China to control Taiwan. a very minor effect imho. china doesn't want to control taiwan due to any economic reasons. It's ideological. China doesn't want the model of a free, democratic society of chinese people to exist, because it proves that the CCP's authoritarianism isn't the only "good" model. Look at how hong kong was cracked down; china took the opportunity to do it, when the econ…

Its not ideological, its to break out of the physical constraints setup by the US, to gain access to the pacific, and to the rest of asia. Simple geopolitics, just check a map.

If only they had a coastline.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#174

Post by aurareturn »

frankacter wrote: post #169
aurareturn wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TSMC sells more than it is capable of producing. This will likely continue to be a limiter for the foreseeable future. No revenue is being lost as a result of limiting export to China. First, TSMC's capacity isn't full right now. Second, if China relies on TSMC, they'd expand by building more fabs. Third, with more competition from China, they can increase the price of their nodes for all their customers. Fourth, Chi…

>First, TSMC's capacity isn't full right now. Taiwan fabrication labs, where the most cutting edge tech is produced, are above capacity. This is the core of this discussion. They are building new fabs inside and outside of Taiwan to catch up to demand, but as of now those are one or more generations behind. To the rest of your initial statement, it starts with a flawed premise so not worth responding. >I think Taiwan…

>Taiwan fabrication labs, where the most cutting edge tech is produced, are above capacity. This is the core of this discussion.

Total TSMC capacity is at around 70-80%. During covid, it was peak at near 100%.

I mean, the fact that you think having Chinese customers freely bid on TSMC wafers does not increase TSMC revenue is silly. Basic economics. More demand you have, more revenue.

>Reliance on a hostile neighbor that continually reminds you they will force unification by military action if necessary is a losing game, and trusting carrots like "one nation, two systems" lost all credibility with the downfall of Hong Kong.

I'm in Hong Kong right now. I don't consider it a downfall. In fact, Hong Kong is wealthy BECAUSE of China. Taiwan is also wealthy because of trade with China.

My point is that Taiwan should play both sides more instead of just one.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#175

Post by K0balt »

tadfisher wrote: post #40
Tier3r wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There exists a third possibility where the US and China sign an under the table deal for China to invade, the US to saber rattle and China to allow the flow of chips to continue. The present direction seems to be the US is "de-risking" from Taiwan by moving chip production to the US, so if China does invade they aren't caught in a bind.

Pretty sure TSMC has plans to destroy or disable their fabs in this event. They (or the Taiwanese) would be stupid not to.

Not even necessary. The equipment will cease to function if it is cut off from ASML servers in the Netherlands. But yes, a destruction protocol exists for most strategic resources located near adversaries that are considered critical to national security.

Weapons systems and strategic production capabilities are the one area where I think that DRM actually makes sense. Not printer cartridges and coffee. FFS.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#176

Post by libertine »

lithiumii wrote: post #8

The more they sell, the less likely China & others are going to make a real alternative.

These could be used for military purposes, wouldn't the best use case be let them try to make a real alternative instead of providing them the tools?

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#177

Post by b112 »

bruce511 wrote: post #30

Nvidia is obviously a US company, but the chips themselves are manufactured in Taiwan. And of course China sees Taiwan as a rogue province, at at least treats invasion there as "on the table". While the US may decide to actively support Taiwan, at the very least a war over that will disrupt production. Should Taiwan fall, and China choose to ban exports from there to the US, then the fun and games would really start.…

[flagged]

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#179

Post by lesuorac »

daft_pink wrote: post #96

They should cancel their patents or software copyright on the cuda apis as a response. The only reason they are dominant is because of their software control.

Why did you pick "cancel their patents or software copyright on the cuda apis as a response"?

The law is pretty clear, just throw them in prison [1].

[1]: https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/enforcement/oee/penalties

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#180

Post by lesuorac »

fred_is_fred wrote: post #32
nemothekid wrote: post #27

We will see what happens - but given nvidias growth and how heavy they are now weighted I’m skeptical there will be any enforcement until well after the elections. Neither party wants to look “bad for the economy”, even if the people harmed isn’t of significant size.

You mean the election that happens in less than 12 hours? Yes, enforcement will probably happen after that.

I mean voting ends in 12 hours except for all the situations where it doesn't.

The presidential election ends in December and all your local ones won't be certified today and in the event of a run-off or re-count voting also won't end today.

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