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First look at the upcoming Starlink Mini

starlinkhardware.com

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Re: First look at the upcoming Starlink Mini

#171

Post by contingencies »

jpm_sd wrote: post #131
contingencies wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mesh is a mess because the government, mobile device manufacturers and cellular carriers all want you on a centralized cellular system. Money is made selling cellular plans, cellular data, cellular carrier based device distribution (especially in the US, where most devices are carrier-acquired IIRC). Google in particular don't want to encourage non-centralized models, because their whole Android-shall-prevent-Apple-f…

Don't assume a conspiracy where the underlying mathematics are a sufficient explanation! Centralized systems use RF bandwidth MUCH more efficiently.

Yes quite right, I don't doubt it's the organizational behavioral paradigm at play, not necessarily an organized conspiracy. A key quality of an established bureaucracy is that it can arrange, design, deliver and entrench bad outcomes without being aware, certainly without actively conspiring. However, the personas that float to the top (or even the middle) of these things are pretty off-putting, and they're also aware regulators will be on them if they get too explicit, so I wouldn't like to place sustained, conscious, premediated decision making out of the realm of possibility.

Re: First look at the upcoming Starlink Mini

#172

Post by esterly »

rescbr wrote: post #170
mathsmath wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure it does! I’m rural and our phones/ISP went out last week. I activated our Starlink roam (you can access the captive portal while service is disabled) & all the remote working neighbors came over and shared the connection. It worked great!

What do you mean? Can I just buy a dish, don't activate any subscription and just when necessary enable roam?

Rome has a 'Pause service' option https://www.starlink.com/service-plans

""Pause and un-pause service at any time. Billing is in one-month increments, allowing you to customize your service to your individual travel needs."

Re: First look at the upcoming Starlink Mini

#173

Post by Dylan16807 »

adolph wrote: post #142
Dylan16807 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It’s awesome that they have the flexibility to choose different launch partners and can use the most reliable and flight proven technology. Does Starlink not have that option? Do you think other launch providers would refuse to take SpaceX's money? Also this isn't a situation where you need reliable and proven. If option A has 99.9% reliability and costs $80M to launch $20M of satellites, and option B has 95% relia…

> Does Starlink not have that option? Starlink already uses "the most reliable and flight proven technology" (imho) so, yes, they have that option. And yes, I should have added something about cost effective.

When you said "It’s awesome that they have the flexibility to choose different launch partners and can use the most reliable and flight proven technology." I thought you were listing that as an advantage they have compared to Starlink. If every competitor has the same flexibility, then why bring it up?

Re: First look at the upcoming Starlink Mini

#174

Post by lxgr »

jpm_sd wrote: post #131
contingencies wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mesh is a mess because the government, mobile device manufacturers and cellular carriers all want you on a centralized cellular system. Money is made selling cellular plans, cellular data, cellular carrier based device distribution (especially in the US, where most devices are carrier-acquired IIRC). Google in particular don't want to encourage non-centralized models, because their whole Android-shall-prevent-Apple-f…

Don't assume a conspiracy where the underlying mathematics are a sufficient explanation! Centralized systems use RF bandwidth MUCH more efficiently.

For long-distance, high-power communication, sure! For local communications, one big counterexample is Wi-Fi – it's centralized on a topological level, but decentralized in terms of spectrum assignment.

And even for longer range, that reasoning can't explain the absence of anything at all from Google or Apple in off-the-grid situations. Why can't I text (iMessage, WhatsApp etc.) a friend sitting a couple of rows away in an airplane without Wi-Fi, when I can airdrop them gigabytes of data just fine?

Re: First look at the upcoming Starlink Mini

#175

Post by adolph »

Dylan16807 wrote: post #173
adolph wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Does Starlink not have that option? Starlink already uses "the most reliable and flight proven technology" (imho) so, yes, they have that option. And yes, I should have added something about cost effective.

When you said "It’s awesome that they have the flexibility to choose different launch partners and can use the most reliable and flight proven technology." I thought you were listing that as an advantage they have compared to Starlink. If every competitor has the same flexibility, then why bring it up?

It was a tongue in cheek comment that was maybe a wee too subtle. To the extent that Amazon launching Kuiper is tied to (maybe still?) majority owner Bezos' interest in building supportive business for Blue Origin, then Kuiper launching on SpaceX is an irony that cannot go unobserved. One might even say Blue Origin as an orbital launch provider is more "vaporware" than Kuiper itself given the latter's test existence in orbit.

Re: First look at the upcoming Starlink Mini

#176

Post by adolph »

yencabulator wrote: post #153
adolph wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a constellation that needs to launch thousands of satellites. If I were the folks at Kuiper or any other would-be LEO RF communication constellation: * Starlink is proving the value prop to investors and consumers * This is an early stage this sector--there will be tech improvements * Improvements in satellites mean competitors can enter at vN+1 * SpaceX/Starlink has some anti-trust risk--they might throw a bone to…

SpaceX satellites have a designed lifespan of approximately 5 years. They'll sustain their launch pace just to keep up the constellation. There's no real vN+1 advantage for competition.

> SpaceX satellites have a designed lifespan of approximately 5 years.

I wasn't aware of that lifespan but I knew it was finite. Let's say 6k sats at 20/launch is 300 launches to refresh the fleet over 5*12 months makes for 5 launches a month [0].

If the first v1's were launched November of 2019 then they will drop out of orbit later this year. SpaceX started launching the v2 minis about 9 months ago. Wikipedia claims 300/Starship. Let's round down to 200 to account for Elon-time and maybe launching a mix of Starship and F9. That would bring the needed operational cadence down to .5/month [1].

Could a well capitalized competitor start at vN+1 or vN+2, build out while Starlink air-ground combination is stalled at vN due to encumbancy, and make progress in high margin geographies proven out by Starlink already? I think it could look like the cell market with a few major players that either get squeezed out or created during any technology refresh.

Would it be more difficult because whatever that gets created is not a mutually supportive vertically integrated enterprise but fragmented? Sure.

0. 6000/20/5/12=5

1. 6000/200/5/12=.5

Re: First look at the upcoming Starlink Mini

#177

Post by adolph »

lupusreal wrote: post #129
adolph wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have at least three Kuiper launches booked in mid-2025, that’s not far off! It’s awesome that they have the flexibility to choose different launch partners and can use the most reliable and flight proven technology. https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/innovation-at-amazon/amazon...

> It’s awesome that they have the flexibility to choose different launch partners and can use the most reliable and flight proven technology Heh, Amazon was going to forgo that for petty/corrupt reasons, but were sued by their shareholders. https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/12/a-bitter-pill-amazon-c...

Capitalism at its finest. Tell that billionaire he can't blow all the vapor all the time.
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