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Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

princeton.edu

171–180 of 188 posts

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#171
post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I liked your analysis and agree for the most part. But you can't leave out the talent factor, nor the resources/position one starts with. It is possible to be born into success.

>>It is possible to be born into success. It definitely is, but it only takes you there. You have carry it from there on. Most of rich kids feel its their 'right' to be rich, regardless of whether they 'deserve' it or not. I have a lot of friends who inherited crazy fortune from their parents. According to them poor people getting rich due to whatever reason is 'unfair' to them. Most rich kids just like the status qu…

Can you expound about "poor people getting rich" being unfair? Where does this sense of entitlement come in for the rich kids?

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have some facts about Bill Gates wrong. Not only is he smarter than other smart people but he's also harder working than most other hard-working people. It was generally accepted among his classmates that he was the smartest in his class at Lakeview and one of the smartest at Harvard. Also, you could say that Bill Gates got lucky with the CP/M OS deal, but he was shrewd enough to give himself the advantage in the…

You could rephrase that sentence: Bill's intelligence, hard work, cunning, and competitiveness played a huge role in Microsoft's early success, and this success was multiplied manifold later on by extraordinary luck. Once again I never said it wasn't necessary - the intelligence or the hard work. I merely indicated that it isn't sufficient for success above a certain level. Your first statement is unverified, and pro…

I agree that intelligence, after a certain upper limit, isn't required for success, and in fact an abundance of it at the upper levels may actually work against success.

Bill Gates stopped pursuing math because he realized at Harvard that he wouldn't be the best at it. He was actually taking graduate level math courses in his undergrad sophomore year.

source: http://askville.amazon.com/read-Bill-Gates-toughest-math-cou...

Anyways, I agree that smartest doesn't mean best at starting a company. Intelligence + Hard Work + Competitiveness + Connections + Luck all play a role. Bill Gates had all of them. Most people are lucky to have 1 or 2.

edit:: I guess the reason I'm replying to you is I get the sense that you think luck played a significant role in Gates' success. It may have, but if you read up on Gates you will learn how significantly better equipped he is for success: high intelligence (i'd guess in the top 10% in his class at Harvard if not higher), ridiculous work ethic, ridiculous competitiveness.

Luck plays a role in all success stories but I submit that Gates would be very successful even without it.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#173

I think this is why a lot of Hollywood actors tend to be liberal on economic issues. They may be rich and famous, but they also got the "big break" that many of their fellow actors did not get. Brad Pitt may be handsome and a good actor, but there are a lot of handsome and good actors. Only one of them got to co-star with Tom Cruise in Interview with the Vampire.

Entertainers are liberal because narrative is a very Liberal Art. Data, myth and legend are more on the Conservative axis, although there are mighty quantities of overlap.

I always enjoyed Neil Young because he was always both liberal and conservative and mostly both at the same time. Artists who truly serve the muse will be like that.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#174
post #9

I've enjoyed two great books that discuss this: "The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives" ( http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/08/books/review/Johnson-G-t.h... ) and "Fooled by Randomness" ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fooled_by_Randomness ) I think people dislike talking about luck's role in our successes (but not failures) because it hints at a deterministic world view where our free will is less important…

You cannot help luck (p) but you can help the number of times you put yourself in a position to be lucky (n). The expected value is n x p, so you clearly have a big influence in your success. For example, going to Princeton gives you a much bigger chance to be seated next to an important Lehman person, and having the right parents gives you a much higher chance to go to Princeton. Some people have such high "n" they…

Perhaps the way to think of this is by going to Princeton, you increase the chances of sitting next to someone from Lehman. So you're not putting yourself in a position to be lucky, you're reducing your need for it.

In other words, we view the odds of an unlikely event as lucky (the chance you'll sit next to someone important) but the odds of a likely (sitting next to someone who can't get you a job) event as the norm.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#175

Its amazing how self-defensive some successful people can become about their socioeconomic status. An implication that luck had any more than a very minor contribution is blasphemous. Some can become outraged at the suggestion that they might own one penny that wasn't earned fair and square. Completely on their own, with no help from anybody. Not even scholarships count as help (they're earned). And for some reason,…

What about someone that fought their way out of endemic poverty? For me, I was fortunate my whole life and while I have worked hard for what I've achieved, it is all largely dependent on the love, encouragement, mindset, and financial help I received from my family. I have a friend, though, that is one of my personal heroes. He came from disadvantage and dysfunction. But, by some spark that frankly I still find intim…

On the other hand, this person who fought their way out, could have easily failed if they were sufficiently _unlucky_, no matter how hard they tried, no matter how "intimidating" that spark. Heck, they could have been hit by a bus or something immediately after getting their dream job! A contrived example, to be sure, but nobody becomes successful without at least a little bit of luck. The point of the talk was that even people who fight their way through the entire process should recognize that they were somehow lucky, and that they should strive to help others who might not be so lucky.

I was one of the graduating seniors at Princeton who saw this talk live, and non-Princeton readers have to understand that the line "Never forget: In the nation's service. In the service of all nations" at the end is not just a concluding remark - it is both Princeton's motto and, IMO and according to many of my classmates, the thesis of the entire talk. The entire speech builds up to make this point: you are lucky, and by default you'll forget that you are sometimes... so make sure you remember to help people who aren't.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#176

A quick parable: You sense a random opportunity, work your ass off, and turn it into a great success. False narrative #1: This success is solely due to your hard work! False narrative #2: This success is solely due to luck! I haven't read ML's books (yet) but I think this speech leans too heavily on narrative #2.

I think he's intentionally focusing on the luck aspect because I think his audience (Princeton undergrads) is used to the first narrative. As sort of an outsider (I'm a graduate student here), I sometimes get the sense that a fair amount of undergrads here are a bit too self-important. Certainly there are many awesome, down-to-earth people here too, but there are also a lot of people who are caught up in the fact tha…

As a Princeton '12 who saw the speech live, I entirely agree. I'd add that this was the Baccalaureate ceremony, which was historically the part of graduation that featured an extensive sermon... in other words, a part that is designed to be humbling in every respect.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#177
post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>It is possible to be born into success. It definitely is, but it only takes you there. You have carry it from there on. Most of rich kids feel its their 'right' to be rich, regardless of whether they 'deserve' it or not. I have a lot of friends who inherited crazy fortune from their parents. According to them poor people getting rich due to whatever reason is 'unfair' to them. Most rich kids just like the status qu…

Can you expound about "poor people getting rich" being unfair? Where does this sense of entitlement come in for the rich kids?

When you are born in luxury, you have to do nothing else in life. All you need to do is to ensure you continue to stand where you are, and others stand where they are(To keep your advantage). When that thing gets disturbed, people feel uncomfortable.

From a poor guy's perspective he has to 'rise' no matter how. From a rich guy's perspective he is supposed to stay where he is no matter how. Most rich people think, the poor are poor because they don't deserve to be rich. And they are rich because of a special gift, like a unique blessing which only they are supposed to have as it was given to them at birth.

This is not just restricted to money. This sort of a thing also happens in many other things like for example born-with talents Vs Gathered skills. Naturally talented people don't like others gaining their skill through practice. Because they feel their born-with skill was a special gift they have, some kind of a unique blessing. And you are supposed to get only through that special gift.

Lets say you are a kid with the costliest video game in the neighborhood. You got it because your rich Uncle Joe gave it to you. You pride around telling you are the only guy who has it. You also know nobody else can have it because no one near has a rich uncle Joe. An year later you find another guy having the same video game, which he bought after selling lemonade on the footpath.

Now not only does he have the video game, but he has it without the rich uncle joe. In other words your rich Uncle joe isn't a special distinction you have anymore.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#178
post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Other way to look at it is, He had to build a company first. How would Mary Gates be of any help to him if he hadn't built the company? Her influence was a multiplier and not the only reason for his success.

Here's what Paul Graham has to say in How to Make Wealth: Millions, Not Billions ( http://paulgraham.com/wealth.html ): > If $3 million a year seems high to some people, it will seem low to others. Three million? How do I get to be a billionaire, like Bill Gates? > So let's get Bill Gates out of the way right now. It's not a good idea to use famous rich people as examples, because the press only write about the very…

>>So "luck" largely took Bill Gates from millions to billions, a 100x to 1000x multiplier.

I never denied that. I am just saying you have to first make to those millions.

And making millions is not easy.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#179
post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You cannot help luck (p) but you can help the number of times you put yourself in a position to be lucky (n). The expected value is n x p, so you clearly have a big influence in your success. For example, going to Princeton gives you a much bigger chance to be seated next to an important Lehman person, and having the right parents gives you a much higher chance to go to Princeton. Some people have such high "n" they…

I feel compelled to both upvote and comment on your post, in order to further emphasize the point you are making: you can help the number of times you put yourself in a position to be lucky . This understanding is incredibly important and relevant to every aspect of one's life, however diverse, from business to dating. Check out Luck Surface Area [0], a relevant concept largely based on the above. Also, most often th…

While what you say may (or may not) be right, you have completely missed the point of the speech and its lesson by focusing on the question of how to become successful. The point is, if you do happen to become successful, don't think you deserve it, and don't forget to repay your debt to those who aren't so successful.

This is not a lesson in self-help, but one about one's place in society.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#180
post #148
post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It should be obvious to anyone, that when you have more wealth than 99.5% of the world, you owe the rest of the world. But not so many understand or realize that. Next time, they shall be born alone, let's see how many hours they survive. People feed you. Build stuff for you. Make your life better. And most of them, don't gain much from it. Usually, they just die younger.

>>It should be obvious to anyone, that when you have more wealth than 99.5% of the world, you owe the rest of the world. Unless you are a king, dictator or some force of evil. Building 99.5% of the wealth in the world will mandate you to build empires of business, solve problems, provide employment to millions of people around the globe. That much doesn't happen merely by chance.

Agreed. But it doesn't happen merely by hard work either. If it did, my dad would be richer than Paris Hilton.
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