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The world has probably passed peak pollution

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Re: The world has probably passed peak pollution

#171

Post by nonameiguess »

hiAndrewQuinn wrote: post #121
skissane wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> - Peak baby - 2013. [2] I think your source's claim that "The planet will never see more babies than it has in 2013" is open to question. To just use the US as an example: mainstream Americans have a declining fertility rate, and we have no reason to think that is going to reverse in the foreseeable future. Immigrants have higher fertility, but they tend to converge to the mainstream after a generation or two. So,…

Putting aside the considerable statistical skepticism, the natural next question we all have at noticing these trends is - is there any way for secular society to get some of the "special sauce" these ultra-religious groups have, before the aggregate supply of everything starts to fall? Secular pronatalism doesn't seem like it has a lot of staying power with most people as an ideology. But I've been on board for a lo…

Are you and your friends men? Unfortunately, the people who truly produce the next generation are largely absent from places like Hacker News, and history seems to show that, once they have any other options, spending 15-30 of their prime years doing the energetic equivalent of 40 consecutive Tour de Frances 9 months out of every 18, while being entirely dependent on a physically larger, stronger person who may or may not have legal and/or social sanction to beat you, is less appealing than living the way you and I live, as we please.

I'm guessing the only thing that will ever reverse this will be the invention of artificial wombs.

For what it's worth, I'm personally on board with having as many children as possible. Life is a cherished miracle. But I also can't bear children and take no risk in this endeavor.

Re: The world has probably passed peak pollution

#172

Post by ninininino »

Peak pollution (that we're aware of).

Given the modus operandi of "manufacture first, find out about carcinogenic / animal-extinction-properties second", it's almost certainly a given that we've not yet passed peak pollution because we keep creating new forms of pollution that are harder and harder to clean up.

Re: The world has probably passed peak pollution

#173

Post by tmvphil »

illiac786 wrote: post #120

I find this title highly misleading “peak emission” would be much more accurate. “Peak pollution” sounds like the amount of pollution in the environment will actually _decrease_ going forward. That is simply not true, it will continue to increase, just slightly less fast. Sorry if I don’t feel euphoric right now.

For e.g NOx with a high half-life, you are probably right that we are still increasing pollution. For short half-life pollutants like SO2 and CO, I would expect this means the actual atmospheric levels are decreasing.

Re: The world has probably passed peak pollution

#175

Post by cs702 »

Animats wrote: post #2

That's encouraging. - Peak pollution - check. - Peak coal - not yet. - Peak oil - maybe 2019, but aftermath of COVID affects numbers.[1] - Peak baby - 2013. [2] [1] https://www.resilience.org/stories/2023-04-19/the-status-of-... [2] https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/life/2022/11/12/the-stats-guy...

I'm not sure "peak baby" is a good thing, but agree with you that the other three peaks are encouraging.

Arguments by smart people like Sabine Hossenfelder have led me to question the conventional wisdom on population growth.

For example, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VI1AaZ9OkH8 .

Re: The world has probably passed peak pollution

#176

Post by kersplody »

jereze wrote: post #20

Well, such an optimistic title, considering that greenhouse gases are excluded in the article.

And ironically decreasing coal and fuel pollution decreases albedo causing faster warming which will persist for a few decades until things balance out. Less pollution is good, particularly when it comes to reductions in sulphur dioxide from bunker fuel and PM2.5 from coal emissions, but it does have side effects amounting to a couple of degrees Celsius of warming according to recent papers. Hanson's "Global Warming in the Pipeline" is a sobering read.

Re: The world has probably passed peak pollution

#178

Post by yoyohello13 »

nonameiguess wrote: post #171
hiAndrewQuinn wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Putting aside the considerable statistical skepticism, the natural next question we all have at noticing these trends is - is there any way for secular society to get some of the "special sauce" these ultra-religious groups have, before the aggregate supply of everything starts to fall? Secular pronatalism doesn't seem like it has a lot of staying power with most people as an ideology. But I've been on board for a lo…

Are you and your friends men? Unfortunately, the people who truly produce the next generation are largely absent from places like Hacker News, and history seems to show that, once they have any other options, spending 15-30 of their prime years doing the energetic equivalent of 40 consecutive Tour de Frances 9 months out of every 18, while being entirely dependent on a physically larger, stronger person who may or ma…

I find it funny when men talk about having as many kids as possible when they take on 0% of the health risk, have no expectation of quitting their job, and statistically have a low chance of becoming a single parent.

Seeing it from the side of a Woman, it's no wonder birth rates are declining.

Re: The world has probably passed peak pollution

#179

Post by ativzzz »

TheCoelacanth wrote: post #140
skissane wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m sceptical about how successful secular pronatalism can be. Large families, generation after generation, can come at a substantial personal cost, and it is a difficult sell for individuals if it is just a matter of principle, as opposed to something backed by promises and threats of post mortem reward and punishment. Furthermore, many religious pronatal groups reduce defections by socially ostracising and demonisi…

To be successful, I think we need to bring back the "it takes a village to raise a child" mentality. We need to take some of the burden off of the parents.

This requires a cultural overhaul. Secular western culture is too individualistic and is incompatible with "village" behavior

Re: The world has probably passed peak pollution

#180

Post by tiborsaas »

Animats wrote: post #2

That's encouraging. - Peak pollution - check. - Peak coal - not yet. - Peak oil - maybe 2019, but aftermath of COVID affects numbers.[1] - Peak baby - 2013. [2] [1] https://www.resilience.org/stories/2023-04-19/the-status-of-... [2] https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/life/2022/11/12/the-stats-guy...

- Twin Peaks - 2017
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