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Is the Job Market Dying?

rachdele.substack.com

171–180 of 198 posts

Re: Is the Job Market Dying?

#171
post #8

No, it is not. For those of you who are new here (aka didn't live through the 2000 bubble) welcome to a shitty job market. 1. Your best bet to get a job is your network. If you were a clock puncher, if you didn't go above and beyond, if you aren't the person who is gonna make the co-worker who vouches for you look good... you are not gonna get much help in your network. 2. The next best bet is to either a) start your…

> For those of you who are new here (aka didn't live through the 2000 bubble) welcome to a shitty job market.

Just as we saw in 2001, the market is worst for (a) recent graduates who have not yet established a professional network and (b) people who had poured into fungible commoditized job roles during the boom and were a dime a dozen when the bust came. (b) is roughly "programmer/analyst" in 2001, "Java developer" in 2008, and "data scientist" today. It's not that some people working under those titles don't have non-fungible skills, but that there are so many others with that job on their resume, that it's hard to differentiate. My advice is, _don't go looking for those jobs._ The opening anecdote in the article describes how terrible it is to try to get hired as a data scientist right now. And no wonder. The job market is flooded with low-quality data scientists.

My experience working with data scientists has drastically lowered my expectations: you get a mediocre Python programmer (you must be willing to accept Pandas + Jupyter notebooks as their work output), combined with a mediocre statistician (can do linear regression and ANOVA, but don't expect them to do it right), combined with a mediocre SQL programmer (probably SELECT, maybe JOIN if you're lucky), and a mediocre machine learning specialist (has a list of preferred sklearn functions in random priority order depending on training, plus maybe one other random library that stops working in the middle of the project due to an API change). They made up for their cheap salaries by spending lots of money on AWS.

Maybe I just got unlucky. Didn't know how to hire well. I'm sure there are good Data Scientists out there, but it's so easy to hire bad ones that it's no wonder people are reluctant to do it. If you're one of the good ones, and if you're in any way qualified for a job with a higher barrier to entry, or even just a job with a more unusual title than Data Scientist, go for that instead of trying to stand out in a sea of mediocrity.

Re: Is the Job Market Dying?

#172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My company is hiring a senior Python dev and we've rejected at least 95% of applications so far. Many weren't even Python devs, most weren't senior (no, getting that title 2 years out of college doesn't count) and some had resumes so off-putting we just said "this person is full of shit." We actually discussed adding a survey question that read "Answer 'no' to this question" to see if they even read the page. So many…

The problem as an applicant is that after sending, say 30,40,50 carefully considered applications, spending up to several hours on each, and getting almost no response, you change tactics. There's no point crafting a love letter which won't even be read - just stick a bunch of bullet points together and broadcast.

Several hours definitely isn't required. If you are a good match for a job your resume should already be a stand out, so all you need to do is read the listing and submit your resume (plus whatever HR system hoops they make you jump through). Anecdotally, I typically get a high response rate when I'm choosey and have never wrote a cover letter or anything specific to the job in question. Why would I need to write a love letter for a position I'm well qualified for? I'm the prize, not them haha.

Changing tactics to blindly applying for positions regardless of qualifications is just a waste of time. I for one wouldn't want an engineer who solves problems like that on the team.

Re: Is the Job Market Dying?

#173
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People who didn't put extra effort into a job that wasn't their own is not indicative that they won't for a job that is actually their own.

Unpopular to say, but probably is relatively strongly correlated. Yeah some people will be horrible at a regular job and amazing at a CEO of their own startup job, but I bet the qualities like good time management that make one successful at a regular job are qualities that would make one successful at the other. I’m open to being completely wrong here.

Well I have ample personal experiences saying you’re wrong. I think you’re basing a hypothesis off of what you think is right, and not going deeper to confirm or deny it.

Re: Is the Job Market Dying?

#174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s a Black Mirror episode somewhere in here akin to the Hunger Games.

I mean, peddling the bike to keep your vim session going might be good for many of us. Well, at least me.

Peddling to keep it closed more like.

Re: Is the Job Market Dying?

#175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem as an applicant is that after sending, say 30,40,50 carefully considered applications, spending up to several hours on each, and getting almost no response, you change tactics. There's no point crafting a love letter which won't even be read - just stick a bunch of bullet points together and broadcast.

Several hours definitely isn't required. If you are a good match for a job your resume should already be a stand out, so all you need to do is read the listing and submit your resume (plus whatever HR system hoops they make you jump through). Anecdotally, I typically get a high response rate when I'm choosey and have never wrote a cover letter or anything specific to the job in question. Why would I need to write a l…

"I for one wouldn't want an engineer who solves problems like that on the team. "

I guess this is some high-handed attempt at a put-down.

I think you have to consider what game job-hunting/filling is.

IMHO it's essentially quite similar to mating.

In that case, you see all kinds of strategies, tailored to the environment, and other realities.

Have you thought about why you're getting all these applications that clearly don't match?

Is it because people are stupid, or lazy? Or do you think there might be some logic behind a strategy of just sending out semi-customized applications in search of a match, knowing that most are simply ignored anyway?

I mean, someone who thinks through why things are the way they are, and what to do about it, even if they can't get to an answer, is someone I would want on my team.

Re: Is the Job Market Dying?

#176
post #8

No, it is not. For those of you who are new here (aka didn't live through the 2000 bubble) welcome to a shitty job market. 1. Your best bet to get a job is your network. If you were a clock puncher, if you didn't go above and beyond, if you aren't the person who is gonna make the co-worker who vouches for you look good... you are not gonna get much help in your network. 2. The next best bet is to either a) start your…

> do whatever crappy contract work you can find on your laptop to keep yourself in the game.

Ha ha so true!

I entered tech in 2000, right as everything was going down. Hey, it was fun for the 8 months I worked for what we now call a startup in Miami. They closed abruptly, and luckily I was able to get another job within about 4 months.

The market in tech is definitely worse than 2020 (I don't know why some here say those were the days of wine and roses) and I was always able to find work during the financial crisis, though it could take a couple of months. So, I'd say that the job market for tech is not as bad as the dot com crash but worse than 2009 or 2020.

Re: Is the Job Market Dying?

#177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Several hours definitely isn't required. If you are a good match for a job your resume should already be a stand out, so all you need to do is read the listing and submit your resume (plus whatever HR system hoops they make you jump through). Anecdotally, I typically get a high response rate when I'm choosey and have never wrote a cover letter or anything specific to the job in question. Why would I need to write a l…

"I for one wouldn't want an engineer who solves problems like that on the team. " I guess this is some high-handed attempt at a put-down. I think you have to consider what game job-hunting/filling is. IMHO it's essentially quite similar to mating. In that case, you see all kinds of strategies, tailored to the environment, and other realities. Have you thought about why you're getting all these applications that clear…

I guess that argument makes sense, but then don't expect a high return rate or complain "I've applied to THOUSANDS and nothing! What gives?"

The last time I was in the market was September and I didn't have much trouble (I got a solid offer but decided it wasn't time to move yet). If things have changed in the past 6 months then yeah, I don't have firsthand experience in todays market. But I always see people complaining about this kind of stuff so I'm used to writing it off. If you think its gotten that bad I'll take your word.

I'm also in the market as a senior, went to a big name university and have been at a few companies that everyone knows so my experience being choosey may be different than others.

    I guess this is some high-handed attempt at a put-down.
If someone is having trouble getting a response and answers by "well if I do it more with even less filtering then maybe one will come through" I think less of their problem solving. Although I am persuaded by what you said originally so I guess its not as terrible of a strategy as I was first thinking.

I would also compare it to mating. If you're on a dating app and write love letters to every girl who's profile you like you will get roughly 0 dates (this being the "spend hours applying" approach). If you are confident, believe you're the prize and try to find girls you're a match with then you will have a lot more success.

Re: Is the Job Market Dying?

#178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To add to this, the churn creates inefficiencies within companies since new employees need to onboard and can take as long as two years to truly understand what the heck is going on within the org. If you have less churn, you have better efficiency and perhaps can get more done with fewer engineers. Also interviewing and onboarding people takes a lot of time and effort from other employees, if it is being done right.…

> If you have less churn, you have better efficiency and perhaps can get more done with fewer engineers. True. But the downside is groupthink. New hires bring new ideas, new perspectives, etc. Heck, even something as simple explaining X or Y during onboarding forces the "teacher" to rethinking and reinterpret. No chun? No new blood. No new ideas.

I 100% agree. There is a balance and also different dynamics based on the trajectory of the company. When a company is growing, you could have new blood and old hats. When a company is shrinking, everything sucks.

Re: Is the Job Market Dying?

#179
post #168
post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to work at Google (and even Facebook for a very short time). They ain't what they used to be.

To be somewhat cynical, they're big companies. Big companies have lots of process, layers of management, fiefdoms, etc. etc. Doesn't matter if you're Google, Facebook, or a big bank.

size matters, but publicly traded matters more.

like sometimes that bureaucracy is a good thing. i remember an uncle who worked for EMC talking to me about being a big company vs. small company person; each has an advantage.

Re: Is the Job Market Dying?

#180
post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be somewhat cynical, they're big companies. Big companies have lots of process, layers of management, fiefdoms, etc. etc. Doesn't matter if you're Google, Facebook, or a big bank.

size matters, but publicly traded matters more. like sometimes that bureaucracy is a good thing. i remember an uncle who worked for EMC talking to me about being a big company vs. small company person; each has an advantage.

>size matters, but publicly traded matters more.

It matters some but a very large private company still needs to organize and make money even if there's probably somewhat less immediacy.

>big company vs. small company person; each has an advantage

Yes. Small companies have limitations to what they can achieve even if they're impressive at small scale. And, certainly, software that doesn't involve enterprise sales allows for outsized effect.

But, in general, the level of just do what needs to be done that works at even a 1,000 person company totally breaks down at 10x and certainly 100x that scale. And that probably works well for people who abhor chaos and is anathema for people who sort of want to chart their own path.

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