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Xkcd: Greenhouse Effect

xkcd.com

171–180 of 286 posts

Re: Xkcd: Greenhouse Effect

#171

I worked in climate policy for awhile. I got out of it because I lost hope. I believe our governments have lost hope also. Covid taught us that if they inflict the necessary pain to control carbon, our governments will be consumed by populist anger. Only the Chinese system appears to have any hope of controlling people’s behavior that much without riots. And what a terrifying system! Even their control began to slip…

How would AI be beneficial in your opinion?

Re: Xkcd: Greenhouse Effect

#172
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nuclear can be useful too. I wouldn’t call it just useful. As far as I understand it’s the best realistic shot we’ve got.

Why not solar, wind and storage? To decarbonise transport storage needs to massively increase. There are 30 million cars in the UK, that alone is 3TWh of storage, which isn't far off a day's total energy use. If we can make 3TWh then it's reasonable that we can make 2 or 3 times that much. It won't be financially viable to operate a nuclear plant for the few days a year that the wind and solar and storage and imports…

So make it easier for individuals to convert cars, build and sell them, by removing barriers to the market. Move away from corporate monopoly thinking in infrastructure. Enable many individual solutions, and allow them to stand or fail on their own merits; Grass roots vs. Top down. Implement tax-breaks instead of subsidies.

Re: Xkcd: Greenhouse Effect

#173
post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are right that degrowth is not a politically viable path to saving the climate. Additionally, it is not effective unless you want to return to pre-industrial society. What works is: Changing the source of the energy we consume. Solar is the cheapest source of energy now. Wind is good in some areas. Nuclear can be useful too. The amazing thing is that solar is so cheap now, there is basically no way stopping it. W…

Sorry if this is a stupid question, but if solar is cheaper, why isn't it the dominant energy source today? Seems like a win win, people get cheaper energy all without force. Generally the market chooses the best product, which is why we replaced horses crapping all over our cities with cars. It wasn't legislation or some global consortium of governments that phased out the horse, it was a better product. What am I m…

Yes, it’s a total win!

It’s dominant already in newly added capacity. It just takes a while, mostly due to permission processes taking long.

And limited grid capacity, which is also held back by environmental review and nimbys - at least in the western world.

Re: Xkcd: Greenhouse Effect

#174
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Environmental activists are almost entirely responsible for the killing of nuclear energy in the 1970s. Much of the blame for climate change lays at their feet.

Funny how environmental activists were powerful enough to kill the nuclear energy but not the fossil one.

They were able to kill the nuclear energy industry because the economic cost of killing it was low. The alternative to cheap, reliable nuclear was cheap, reliable coal.

They're struggling to kill off the fossil fuel industry because the alternative to cheap, reliable coal/natural gas is expensive (when accounting for energy storage + backup energy production capacity), less reliable renewables.

Ironically, they'd have a much easier if the alternative to cheap, reliable coal/natural gas was cheap, reliable nuclear energy!

Re: Xkcd: Greenhouse Effect

#175
post #133
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not solar, wind and storage? To decarbonise transport storage needs to massively increase. There are 30 million cars in the UK, that alone is 3TWh of storage, which isn't far off a day's total energy use. If we can make 3TWh then it's reasonable that we can make 2 or 3 times that much. It won't be financially viable to operate a nuclear plant for the few days a year that the wind and solar and storage and imports…

Solar generation is much, much lower in the winter than in the summer, so we need to massively overbuild solar to have reasonable generation in the winter. And there are many times when there’s very little generation for a week or more because of weather, so you need to massively overbuild storage, too. Combined, it’s not cheap to reliably replace base load power. Edit: I should note that one proposal I’ve seen to mi…

This is true, however at the end of the day - this would work out to a per kwh cost of overbuilt infrastructure. Is there a reliable study of what this kwh cost is?

In New England we pay upwards of 14 cents per kwh or higher. My understanding is that this would buy a substantial overbuilt, it's likely that energy prices upwards of 30 cents per kwh would be politically viable provided there were guardrails to keep heat/hot water cheap.

Re: Xkcd: Greenhouse Effect

#176
post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are right that degrowth is not a politically viable path to saving the climate. Additionally, it is not effective unless you want to return to pre-industrial society. What works is: Changing the source of the energy we consume. Solar is the cheapest source of energy now. Wind is good in some areas. Nuclear can be useful too. The amazing thing is that solar is so cheap now, there is basically no way stopping it. W…

> Additionally, it is not effective unless you want to return to pre-industrial society. Still needed to some extent even in your optimistic scenario. Because growth is increasing so is demand. New sources of energy are not displacing old ones. Just covering new demand.

Coal is being displaced already.

Re: Xkcd: Greenhouse Effect

#177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are right that degrowth is not a politically viable path to saving the climate. Additionally, it is not effective unless you want to return to pre-industrial society. What works is: Changing the source of the energy we consume. Solar is the cheapest source of energy now. Wind is good in some areas. Nuclear can be useful too. The amazing thing is that solar is so cheap now, there is basically no way stopping it. W…

> Nuclear can be useful too. I wouldn’t call it just useful. As far as I understand it’s the best realistic shot we’ve got.

I’m all for trying, but solar is the one that’s taking off at the moment.

Re: Xkcd: Greenhouse Effect

#178
post #30
post #9

Some other fun “x is closer to y than z”: * We are closer in time to the T rex than the T rex was to the Stegosaurus * We are closer to the time of Cleopatra than Cleopatra was to the construction of the Great Pyramid of Giza

I find the more recent ones more fun because a) it's a shifting target, so you can find something new and b) you get to make people feel old! Let's see... the release of the film The Day After Tomorrow is closer to 'We begin bombing in five minutes' than it is to today.

What is 'We begin bombing in five minutes'?

Re: Xkcd: Greenhouse Effect

#179
post #170
post #135

As with most large scale changes...there are winners and losers. New species and extinctions. High CO2 is great for plants in my greenhouse...I suppose that's why it is called a greenhouse gas. Anyone longing for lower CO2 levels in our entire atmosphere is basically an anti-Canadian Agriculture bigot. Seriously though sometimes the cure is much worse than just handling the issues one at a time as we transition to a…

> Historically the planet has gone through all sorts of things before. Since this is thread under XKCD post: https://xkcd.com/1732/ Isn't it bit naive to exclude rate of change in this argument?

No. See "Chicxulub impact" or more recently Mount Tambora. These are two of many examples.

Re: Xkcd: Greenhouse Effect

#180
In my opinion the only solution is a drastic drop in number of human beings. Thankfully we wont have to do much since nature will do it for us when the droughts begin and the crops start failing. Its fun to think of how we will science ourselves out of this as we go over 8 billion people who all desire an ever increasing standard of living. However the only science we will science ourselves with are going to be fully autonomous suicide drones patrolling our borders for any straggling climate refugees and also drones inside our ruined cities patrolling for dissent. That's my take on the thing at least
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