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The Layoff

xeiaso.net

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Re: The Layoff

#171

Post by necovek »

gcr wrote: post #61
necovek wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have any sources for layoffs "due to AI/LLM advances" other than layoffs-in-one-sector-to-replace-with-AI-experts which I can find plenty of, but which are not really due to efficiency improvements?

What’s the difference? AI-motivated job cuts are widespread in all sectors, and companies are phrasing them as “efficiency improvements.” This is only possible because of recent advances in LLM capability. If anything, skilled experts are slightly less likely to be replaced by AI (with notable exceptions for visual artists) “IBM Plans To Replace Nearly 8,000 Jobs With AI” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ibm-plans-repl…

Thanks, but I am really curious about the jobs AI itself has replaced today.

Note the use of "will", "could" and "plans" in those articles: none of this has materialized today, as was implied in the GP post.

> What's the difference?

The difference is in chasing the market potential vs actually achieving that potential today: it seems to me generative AI is not replacing any jobs today, but AI experts are being hired in lieu of traditional software experts en masse, hoping for generative AI advances to continue to the point where those efficiencies materialize (which is never a given, but I do see the business reasons to bet on it).

One statement is that generative AI is good enough to replace workers today (which I haven't seen proof of yet), and another is that it seems this might happen in the (near) future so let's invest in developing AI more (also implying that where it is today is not sufficient).

Re: The Layoff

#172

Post by necovek »

no_wizard wrote: post #111
gcr wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What’s the difference? AI-motivated job cuts are widespread in all sectors, and companies are phrasing them as “efficiency improvements.” This is only possible because of recent advances in LLM capability. If anything, skilled experts are slightly less likely to be replaced by AI (with notable exceptions for visual artists) “IBM Plans To Replace Nearly 8,000 Jobs With AI” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ibm-plans-repl…

Reality is that knowing LLM and other AI tech now is going to be a long term distinct advantage for software engineers of all stripes and those that don’t know will fall behind

To me that does not sound like a "reality", but a hypothesis that many are willing to bet on today.

It may turn out to be true, but I don't see any proof of that yet, not even in the social sciences-style of proof (which is admittedly a lower bar to clear than mathematical-style proofs, but that would do for now).

Re: The Layoff

#173

Post by gcr »

necovek wrote: post #172
no_wizard wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reality is that knowing LLM and other AI tech now is going to be a long term distinct advantage for software engineers of all stripes and those that don’t know will fall behind

To me that does not sound like a "reality", but a hypothesis that many are willing to bet on today. It may turn out to be true, but I don't see any proof of that yet, not even in the social sciences-style of proof (which is admittedly a lower bar to clear than mathematical-style proofs, but that would do for now).

I share your skepticism about AI tools being effective. However, when we look at it from a labor relations perspective, what's important is the threat of being replaced, and that's happening now. I think the threat itself is (currently) far more damaging to workers' psychological safety (thus team performance) than whatever outcomes using AI (currently) actually brings.

My point is that we're already beyond the "fuck around" threshold; your point (if I understand you correctly) is that we haven't reached the "find out" threshold yet. :)

Re: The Layoff

#174

Post by xena »

bbor wrote: post #9

Super biased, strongly held first impression: drop the disclaimer, or move it to the side. I'm just an attention-deprived zoomer, but for me a big preface is not a good way to keep my interested. If I'm gonna be sucked into a whole thing , it's usually because I didn't realize it was a whole thing. Plus 'A dull thud hit James' wrist.' pretty immediately puts this in the realm of fiction imo! After reading the whole t…

In 2024, you need to have those disclaimers. This is just life now.

Re: The Layoff

#175

Post by brunooliv »

xena wrote: post #95
brunooliv wrote: post #87

I’d read a book in this style if one was written, Xe! This is both entertaining and very well written

I've been considering compiling my Techaro stories into a book eventually, it'd probably involve a lot of editing and reformatting, but it's a thing I want to work on eventually.

This is really great news, I will definitely be on the lookout for it :D
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